--- On Wed, 1/14/09, Mike Tintner <[email protected]> wrote:

> "You have talked about past recessions being real
> opportunities for business. But in past recessions,
> wasn't business able to get lending? And doesn't the
> tightness of the credit market today inhibit some
> opportunities?
> 
> Typically not. Most new innovations are started without
> access to credit in good times or bad. Microsoft (MSFT) was
> started without any access to credit. It's only in crazy
> times that people lend money to people who are experimenting
> with innovations. Most of the great businesses today were
> started with neither a lot of venture capital nor with any
> bank lending until five or six years after they were [up and
> running]." 

This is the IQ testing problem again. The genius of Socrates wasn't recognized 
until after he was executed. Modern Nobel prize winners are awarded for work 
done decades ago. How do you distinguish one genius from millions of cranks? 
You wait until the rest of society catches up in intelligence.

-- Matt Mahoney, [email protected]



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