The only real attempt that I know of was that of Von Neumann and games theory <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann>. It was in fact Von Neumann who first suggested things like Prisoner's dilemma. This "*games*" approach led to the MAD<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction> theory of nuclear war. As we shall see the theory of nuclear deterrence has a number of real holes in it.
In terms of Poker, Polaris<http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&rlz=1G1GGLQ_ENUK247&q=polaris+poker&aq=f&aqi=g3&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=>, initially at any rate assumes the Von Neumann zero sum strategy when bluffing. Subsequently it observes the player's behaviour. Another interesting piece of work is on cake cutting<http://plus.maths.org/issue42/reviews/book1/index.html>by Ian Stewart. The book was most interesting. The interesting thing is that Ian has been consulted for international negotiations. How do you cut Jerusalem? Israel cuts and the Arabs then decide on the piece they want. That is the simplest model. MAD has had some false assumptions. The essential assumption is that the holders of nuclear weapons are all good poker players and make rational, if amoral decisions. For this reason it discounted the existence of rogue states. No state is going to launch one or two nukes at Moscow or New York if by so doing their annihilation is assured. This brings me to where I came in. How do you deal with irrational decision making. I was hoping that social simulation would be seeking to provide answers. This does not seem to be the case. - Ian Parker On 30 July 2010 18:54, Jan Klauck <[email protected]> wrote: > (If you don't have time to read all this, scroll down to the > questions.) > > I'm writing an article on the role of intelligent systems in the > field of International Relations (IR). Why IR? Because in today's > (and more so in tomorrow's) world the majority of national policies > is influenced by foreign affairs--trade, migration, technology, > global issues etc. (And because I got invited to write such an > article for the IR community.) > > Link for a quick overview: > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_relations > > The problem of foreign and domestic policy-making is to have > appropriate data sources, models of the world and useful goals. > Ideally both sides of the equation are brought into balance, which > is difficult of course. > Modern societies become more pluralistic, the world becomes more > polycentric, technologies and social dynamics change faster and > the overall scence becomes more complex. That's the trend. > To make sense of that all policy/decision-makers have to handle > this rising complexity. > > I know of several (academic) approaches to model IR, conflicts, > macroeconomic and social processes. Only few are useful. And > fewer are actually used (e.g., tax policy, economic policy). > It's possible that some use even narrow AI for specific tasks. > But I'm not aware of intelligent systems used by the IR community. > From what I see do they rely more on studies done by analysts and > news/intelligence reports. > > So my questions: > > (1) Do you know of intelligent systems for situational awareness, > decision support, policy implementation and control that are used > by the IR community (in whatever country)? > > (2) Or that are proposed to be used? > > (3) Do you know of any trends into this direction? Like extended > C4ISR or ERP systems? > > (4) Do you know of intelligent systems used in the business world > for strategic planning and operational control that could be used > in IR? > > (5) Historical examples? Like > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Cybersyn > for the real-time control of the planned economy > > (6) Do you think the following statement is useful? > Policy-making is a feedback loop which consists of awareness- > decision-planing-action, where every part requires experience, > trained cognitive abilites, high speed and precision of perception > and assessment. > (Background: ideal field for a supporting AGI to work in.) > > (6) Further comments? > > Thanks, > Jan > > > ------------------------------------------- > agi > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ > Modify Your Subscription: > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=8660244-6e7fb59c Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
