Dear collegues,

Hear is the answer to my email... (I send it before, but we had anemail
problem and it did not go. Sory by the delay)

thank you all
Best wishes
Marta


At 10:07 03/10/02 +0200, you wrote:
>Dear collegues,
>
>I have another doubt....
>When we have several possible models (with different covariates as an
>external trend), how doi we decide which one is the most proper one to use
>(doing the variograms and kriging).
>Do we simply look at the value of the minimising function (the lowest would
>be the best)? 
>Do we look at percentage of the spatial variance explained by the model? 
>Do we look at the lowest C (sill+nugget)?
>
>Can you help me?
>thank you
>Marta
Hi Marta, 

if you have several possible covariates it is worth you while selecting the
best correlated. This can be a statistical measure or in the case of
external drift a clear physical relationship (for example rainfall and
elevation are often linearly related, but a clear statistical relationship
may not be observable). Be parsimonious, use as few variables as possible.

In any case the external drift (or trend) should have a spatial structure
that is smoother than the variable of interest. Hans Wackernagels book,
"Multivariate Geostatistics" provides a good overview,

Then of course there are validation tests that can help you choose such as
X-validation, but a rationale choice in the first instance can save a lot
of time testing different models.

Benjamin Warr  

Research Fellow 

Centre for the Management of Environmental Resource(CMER)  
INSEAD  
Boulevard de Constance,  
77305 Fontainebleau Cedex,  
France  

Marta

You can use the Cressie goodness of fit statistic to
assess relative merits of various models.

You should also look at the cross validation
statistics to see which gives you closest to the ideal
behaviour and best correlation between estimated and
actual values.

Better estimates (in the real sense) are achieved with
models in which the nugget effect/sill ratio is a
minimum and where the range of influence is longest
(in that order of priority). The total sill is
virtually irrelevant in determining your kriging
weights and only affects the kriging variance as a
constant factor. Unless, of course, you are doing
lognormal kriging where the total sill is vital to the
back transform.

Isobel Clark
http://uk.geocities.com/drisobelclark

__    Estimada Marta:
  
    Te escribo fuera de la lista para hacerlo en espa�ol, lo cual creo que
puede ser m�s �gil para ambos.
  
    Para la elecci�n de un modelo determinado no debes basarte en �ndices
estad�sticos. La geoestad�stica no es la aplicaci�n de la estad�stica a
diversos campos. Por ello, debes elegir un modelo que se ajuste bien a tus
datos y que expliquen razonablemente la posible distribuci�n de los mismos.
Para ello debes realizar consideraciones subjetivas (elegir un modelo que
se ajuste m�s o menos a tus datos) y basarte en la experiencia previa (si
existe). O sea, si en un trabajo anterior un modelo se ajust� bien a los
datos, no hay raz�n para considerar otro modelo distinto.
  
    Otra cosa que puede ser �til es conocer si la distribuci�n de la
variable estudiada es m�s o menos continua. En ese caso es conveniente
ajustar un tipo de modelo u otro (gaussiano o esf�rico, por ejemplo). 
  
    Si te interesa, tengo en prensa un libro sobre geoestad�stica lineal,
el cual podr�a enviarte v�a mail.
  
    Un saludo.
  
Dear Marta,
Have a look at reduced mean error and reduced variance.
In my opinion, these are indeed good indicators of approppriate models.
By the way, I would like to learn if you have GS+ software. If you have,
what is the version?
Looking forward to hearing from you, soon.
Yours Sincerely,
Dr. Mahmut CETIN

Hi marta


If you fit the models usig maximum likelihood you can use the AIC or BIC 
as a criteria to choose the model.
AIC: Akaike information criteria
BIC: Baeysian information criteria

The function likfit() in geoR returns them both

Cheers
P.J.

I don't think there is going to be an absolute answer to your question.
However I suggest that you look at the following:

1. Do you have data at the same number of locations for all of the possible
covariates? (more data locations is better)

2. The match between data locations for possible covariates and data
locations for the principal variable.

3. Standard regression diagnostics when fitting the principal variable to
each of the possible covariates

4. Since you are going to be using the "residuals" for the principal
variable to estimate and model the variogram (or covariance),  how does the
fitting compare using each of the different possible covariates? For
example, there are multiple cross-validation statistics you can use

5. Of course you also want to consider which of the different possible
covariates makes better sense , i.e.,  is the relationship between the
possible covariate and the principal variable simply one of correlation or
is there evidence or theory or reason to believe that there is something
closer to a causual relationship. 

6. Are the possible covariates interdependent? 

Donald E. Myers
http://www.u.arizona.edu/~donaldm

>
    

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Marta Rufino

Centre Mediterrani d'Investigacions Marines i Ambientals
(CMIMA). CSIC
Passeig Maritim 37-49
08003  BARCELONA

Tfno:34 93 230 95 40
Tfax:34 93 230 95 55

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