Hi Stefano,
 
First, I am not sure that stochastic simulation is necessary in your case
since you seem to be only interested in what I would call a measure
of local (or location-specific) uncertainty. MultiGaussian kriging would in 
theory
give you exactly the same results at less computational cost...of course
these days kriging doesn't look as "sexy" as simulation...
 
To validate the results, I would use the concept of accuracy plot introduced
by Clayton Deutch. This concept and others are explained in the paper:
Goovaerts, P. 2001. Geostatistical modelling of uncertainty in soil science. 
Geoderma, 103: 3-26. <http://www.terraseer.com/training/geostats/geoder01.pdf>  
that you can download from my webpage. 
Of course, you might also want to check the reproduction of target statistics,
such as histogram and variogram, but again it seems that in your
case your focus is on these probabilities of exceeding a particular threshold.
I discuss these issues in another publication:
"Goovaerts, P. 2006. Geostatistical modeling of the spaces of local, spatial 
and response uncertainty for continuous petrophysical properties. Chapter in 
book Stochastic Modeling II published by the American Association of Petroleum 
Geologists"... and I could send you a copy if you are interested...
 
An executable to compute the accuracy plot can be downloaded from:
http://ekofisk.stanford.edu/SCRFweb/GSLIB/added.html
 
Cheers,
 
Pierre 
 
Pierre Goovaerts
Chief Scientist at BioMedware Inc.
Courtesy Associate Professor, University of Florida
President of PGeostat LLC
 
Office address: 
516 North State Street
Ann Arbor, MI 48104
Voice: (734) 913-1098 (ext. 8)
Fax: (734) 913-2201 
http://home.comcast.net/~goovaerts/ 

________________________________

From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] on behalf of Stefano Pegoretti
Sent: Tue 7/25/2006 10:38 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: AI-GEOSTATS: validation of Simulation



Hallo!
  I'm a Ph.D. students who works with Indoor Radon Data, and it's the
first time I join this list. I've a question for you: after
post-processing several Sequential Gaussian Simulation to obtain a
probability map of exceeding a given threshold, can someone suggests
me a "clever" way to "validate" the results? (of course, I've a
"second" dataset of measurements to use in this part of the work ;
variography and sgs "do not know" this data...)

  Thanks a lot and best regards,

stefano
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