according to me it is 1/3
read the line carefully  "What is the probability that the next pen
from the same packet will also be a blue one? "
since it is said the first pen was blue and second pen must also be
blue. for it to happen 1st packet  contaning all blue pen should be
selected whose probablity of selection is 1/3


On Aug 5, 9:06 pm, nishaanth <[email protected]> wrote:
> Bayes theorem...
>
> Approach :
>
> P(pen from packet 1 | Blue) =2/3 (from Bayes rule)
>
> P(pen from packet 2 | Blue) =1/3
>
> Req prob = 2/3 + 1/3 . 1/2
>                =5/6
>
> On Fri, Aug 5, 2011 at 6:02 PM, abhishek iyer 
> <[email protected]>wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > @Nishant.. Can u please explain ur approach.. I think its as per mentioned
> > above 1/2...
> > On 5 Aug 2011 21:30, "nishaanth" <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > 5/6
>
> > > On Fri, Aug 5, 2011 at 5:55 PM, Rahul Jain <[email protected]>
> > wrote:
>
> > >> i agree with puneet. 1/2
>
> > >> On Fri, Aug 5, 2011 at 9:18 PM, Puneet Goyal <[email protected]
> > >wrote:
>
> > >>> 1/2
>
> > >>> you got the blue pen so it is for sure that is one of the first two
> > >>> packets, so you are left with a black pen and a blue pen and you have
> > to
> > >>> find the probability of finding a blue pen among them
>
> > >>> On Fri, Aug 5, 2011 at 9:14 PM, Kamakshii Aggarwal <
> > >>> [email protected]> wrote:
>
> > >>>> I was given 3 packets, with 2 pens each.
>
> > >>>> 1st Packet has 2 blue pens.
>
> > >>>> 2nd Packet has 1 blue pen,1 black pen.
>
> > >>>> 3rd Packet has 2 black pens.
>
> > >>>> I took any one packet and pulled out one pen. It turned out to be a
> > blue
> > >>>> one.
>
> > >>>> What is the probability that the next pen from the same packet will
>
> > >>>> also be a blue one?
>
> > >>>> --
> > >>>> Regards,
> > >>>> Kamakshi
> > >>>> [email protected]
>
> > >>>> --
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>
> > >>> --
> > >>> -----------------------------------------------------------------------
> > >>> Puneet Goyal
> > >>> Student of B. Tech. III Year (Software Engineering)
> > >>> Delhi Technological University, Delhi
> > >>> -----------------------------------------------------------------------
>
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> > > --
> > > S.Nishaanth,
> > > Computer Science and engineering,
> > > IIT Madras.
>
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> --
> S.Nishaanth,
> Computer Science and engineering,
> IIT Madras.

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