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He's just jealous.. right Mark
K.?
8-)
d
Mm... I sense something in the way you asked
questions.
But first of all, your math is not good. To get
126% this year, I only need another 80%. (1.26 * 1.80 = 2.26).
Secondly I didn't state that I expect 126% this
year. I only said I got 126% average for the last 3 years. In fact, I have no
expectation and make no prediction. I just follow my system. Be it -20%
or 250%, as long as it is consistent with my system, I would accept what the
market gives me.
And finally as Ari Kiev pointed out, if you
believe it is impossible, of course, it is impossible to you.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 2:37
PM
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody
made any money???
Mark,
So you are up so
far 26% this year
I take it you
expect to be up another 100% or so to make that 126%
annret?
Mark
Yes. It is some trend indicators
based on major market indexes. Use Foreign functions.
26% is based on current equity
and start equity of this year. I mentioned "after DD" since the
system is currently experiencing a DD.
There is a trick I can share
with you: compare your system equity curve with the curve of
market-based indicators, you may be able to find some correlation to improve
your system by using some market-based rules to stay out of market or use
higher leverage.
----- Original Message -----
Sent:
Tuesday, June 20, 2006 1:45 PM
Subject: RE:
[amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Thanks. You
said your system is mechanical. Was the "out of the market" decision
mechanical? If so, mind telling what method you used? Also,
what do you mean by "Up
26% this year (after DD)"?
d
From:
[email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Mark H
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 1:42
PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has
anybody made any money???
Mostly out of the market in
the last 30 days due to market
conditions.
Current DD 20%, incurred the
week before the 10+ days crash (no trades during the crash). Up 26% this
year (after DD).
I found that if I put in
more rules to reduce the DD, it would greatly reduce
returns.
----- Original Message
-----
Sent:
Tuesday, June 20, 2006 11:24 AM
Subject:
RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any
money???
How have you
done in the last 30 days?
d
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Mark H
Sent: Monday, June 19, 2006
10:15 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has
anybody made any money???
Of course, it is
self-evident that nobody can get 100% every year otherwise he would
own the whole world in less than 50 years starting with
$100.
That's not the point.
The point is when you are small, you should strive for high returns
with reasonable drawdowns. Then when you get to a few millions or
higher, you should diversify your investments/systems and get lower
but steady returns. That's the goal for many individual traders if
they don't want to manage other
people's money.
As I read, many top
traders were able to get 50-500% for 5-10 years when they
started out. When you are big, it is hard to get high returns since
your moving in/out of the market causes adverse price
movements.
Richard Dennis didn't
blow his own bankroll. He blew half of the fund he managed in 1987
because he violated his own principles which he taught to the
turtles. He stopped managing fund for a few years until 1994, when
he started Dennis Trading Group. He was and still is a very wealthy
man.
----- Original Message
-----
Sent: Monday, June 19, 2006
9:16 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has
anybody made any money???
Hi Mark,
Glad to hear you don't bet
the farm. ^_^
I was trading probably before the 'Wizard'
writers were out of high
school.
And I believe Richard
Dennis, whose successes were kind of the
inspiration for those
books, eventually tapped out, as in blew the
whole bankroll.
Pardon me if I have that wrong.
Nobody gets those returns
consistently, and the basic reason behind
that statement being
clearly true should be obvious: The geometrical
growth of the
money would soon have such a successful trader with
such a
large amount of capital that percentage return
gets
progressively more and more difficult to keep in the
stratosphere.
Eventually, position sizes become a problem
because of market
liquidity. Or did you harken onto the grail?
^_-
Look at Warren Buffet's problem ... too much cash, not
enough
qualifying opportunities. And he's not even a
trader.
Of course, you could be talking un-compounded. But
I still have
serious doubts about sustainability.
I
stand by my statement that outsized returns, particularly
the
super-jumbo outsized, require outsized risk. I haven't seen
any
cases in which that risk didn't ultimately pose a problem.
And I
also stand by my opinion that percentage returns in that
league are
unsustainable. If they were not, a very few managers
would be
managing most of the world's capital. But that is not
the case.
Yuki
Tuesday, June 20, 2006, 9:36:27 AM,
you wrote:
MH> Yuki:
MH> Thanks for your kind
warning. However, you got it wrong. I am trading a strict
mechanical system including position sizing algorithm. So "bet it
all" is not applicable here. There were no big
bets and no big
wins either. Just small bets and small wins/losses, and a lot of
them. Since you stated "nobody gets those kind of returns", I
would recommend that you read a few of those
wizards/hitters
books to get some inspiration.
MH> Good
trading,
MH> - Mark
H
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