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Millowena:
I may not be the guru you are looking up to. I
still become edgy with my DD. But I can probably give you some hints which may
be helpful in improving a dip buy system.
For dip buy, the expectancy is very low, maybe just
1.1-1.3, at least for my system. To achieve high returns, you need to trade a
lot. Position sizing is the key. Trade small positions 5%-10% of equity, use
just time stops, do not use price stops, the small position sizes already
control the risk. If your expectancy is different, you may need different
position sizing algorithm. (BTW, if you buy dip and hold for big gain, it is not
dip buy, it is trend-following. Dip buy means buying when a stop dips and
selling when it bounces back for small profits).
Another consideration is market conditions as I
already mentioned in another post. Use market-based indicators to identify
bull/bear conditions. Only trade or use margin when market is bullish. Get out
when market is bearish. The system is in the market for only 50-70% of time.
This rule can greatly reduce DD and does not impact returns as
much.
And do a lot of backtesting and some optimizing, I
found Robert Pardo's book helps a lot in becoming confident with your backtest
results.
Best Trading,
- Mark
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 7:07
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] (OT) Re: Has
anybody made any money???
Mark,
It appears you are doing something RIGHT, that the rest of us
would like to
duplicate, or at least emulate.
I too buy dips and
look for STRONG stocks that have shown me that the market
likes them too.
Unfortunately, my results are nowhere NEAR yours..
Would you please
share with us your system in sufficient detail to allow us
to learn how to
have similar results?
Thanks!
Millowena
----- Original
Message -----
From: "sebastiandanconia" <sebastiandanconia@yahoo.com>
To:
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]ps.com>
Sent:
Tuesday, June 20, 2006 12:39 PM
Subject: [amibroker] (OT) Re: Has anybody
made any money???
> Mark, my trading now is along similar lines:
Focus on strong stocks
> (my preference is small- and micro-cap growth)
but ONLY when the whole
> market is strong.
>
> The main
difference between our methods seems to be that you're
> deliberately
buying on dips and I would only do that
> unintentionally.:) The
practical outcome is that your returns are 2-3
> times what I can
reasonably expect, but with higher drawdowns. One of
> the "market
wizards" (I don't remember which one) once said that if
> you expect to
double your money you have to be willing to lose 1/3 of
> it. Sounds
like you're right in there.:)
>
> Thanks for the idea about the
5-8 day time-stops. It might only be
> applicable for buying on dips
instead of buying into strength, but
> I'll look into it
anyway.
>
>
> Luck,
>
>
Sebastian
>
>
> --- In [EMAIL PROTECTED]ps.com,
"Mark H" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]..> wrote:
>>
>> Dr
Gaine$
>>
>> My strategy is dip buying. When the market is
bullish, buy strong
> stocks when they dip steeply and sell them when
they rise.
>> The secret is to use time stops (5-8 days) to let your
capital work
> harder for you.
>> The most difficult part is to
sit tight when market is not good and
> also stomach the drawdown up to
40%.
>> Backtest helps a lot to pull the trigger when you are down
40%.
>>
>> - Mark
>>
>> ----- Original
Message -----
>> From: richard gaines
>> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]ps.com
>>
Sent: Sunday, June 18, 2006 9:40 AM
>> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has
anybody made any money???
>>
>>
>>
>>
Share your strategy with us Mark.
>>
>> Dr
Gaine$
>>
>> Mark H <[EMAIL PROTECTED]..>
wrote:
>> Absolutely. Average 126% for the last three
years.
>> But you should know that software are just tools and not
money
> printing machines. It is what between your ears
matters.
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>>
From: tom_katch
>> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]ps.com
>>
Sent: Saturday, June 17, 2006 7:04 AM
>> Subject: [amibroker] Has
anybody made any money???
>>
>>
>> I own Amibroker
software, and have the latest version
> (standard). I
>> also
have Metastock, Vectorvest and some other software. But I am
>> sorry
to say that Amibroker is the only software I ever bought
> that
I
>> did not study up on. I understand that most of the users are
very
>> pleased with it from looking at this forum. Most of
the
> postings are
>> of a technical nature, with questions as
how to understand and
> use the
>> software. But I don't recall
seeing postings from people
> noting their
>> success in using
the software. Have any of you had
> great/good/fair
>> success
in using it? Have you made a lot/some/little money
> with
it?
>> Maybe some of your positive comments will give me a kick
in
> the ass,
>> and I'll start on the 800 page
manual.
>>
>> Thanks
>>
>>
Fred
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
__________________________________________________
>>
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protection around
>> http://mail.yahoo.com
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>
>
>
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>
>
>
>
>
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>
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