Fred It is obvious that you are way ahead on the curve WRT cycles than I can aspire to in the foreseeable future, so just be a bit patient please if I sound daft(could well be the case that I am being daft).
Why are we taking MAs' as a starting point for band construction? In PM , from what I can infer he advocates a visual fit rather than a fit based on MA length appropriate to the current cycle in the issue.As you have pointed out the endeavor is to find the cycle using the bands. If we take the H/L range over a nominal cycle length and use a centreline that is not based on a MA(could be based on the median price over the period?) are we not able to circumvent the issue of lag inherent in the MA? The only thing to my mind then that needs to be ensured is we have a fit of 2 sigma over the period in question? And as we are using a the H/L range most likely our bands will probably cover 2 sigma. IF this approach is conceptually flawed then there is no need to talk further on this. If it has some degree of workability maybe this can be used to construct the bands? Also WRT to your observation yesterday re the unstable nature of a parabolic extrapolation and the desirability of looking for a trigonometric solution, my first attempt at googling it landed me at the IEEE(if I am not mistaken) website. Staying with the first step of constructing bands can we not extrapolate using one period ROC of the of the bands from one cycle length back? Rakesh On 10/10/06, Fred <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Most of us who have read Hurst's writtings are well aware of the > general principles involved in PM ... However, there are several > points that should be mentioned or questioned with regards to your > comments ... > > 1. It is clear from Hurst's course material that PM and the > techniques therein were, in his mind, a fairly simplistic view of how > he analyzed price and that the curvelinear trendlines were only a > means for the analyst to discover the cyclic forces in play i.e. a > possible first step in developing a full phasing Analysis ( FPA ) and > using FLD's, VTL's and other techniques ... > 2. As far as the tools and the math involved in the later chapters > and appendicies it is also clear that Hurst not only employed the > techniques therein but other more sophisticated techniques that he > didn't really write much about in PM. Clues to this can be seen in > the bibliography. > 3. While PC's and AB didn't exist in 1970, mainframes and mini's did > and if you recall we had already managed to get to the moon and back > mostly by use of the slide rule. > 4. The curvelinear bands that Hurst's uses are in essence n period > centered moving averages with percentage or standard deviation bands > around them which by their nature can not be computed closer than n / > 2 bars prior to the current bar. As such one must have some > technique for extrapolating those bands to at least the current bar > and preferably beyond. Without this capability one would have > already experienced half the move in the opposite direction when the > CMA catches up. > > My question then is ... If you are using curvelinear bands of one > sort or another inside AB how are you constructing the bands and what > methodologies are you using to extrapolate them ? > > --- In [email protected], "Ton Sieverding" > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > Hurst wrote 'The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing' in 1970. > When the technical annalist was using pencil and paper for his > graphs. Bill Gates and TJ still did not exist and Hurst was not using > a PC. I've tried to get the original version of the book but only got > the reprinted version from 2000. Frankly I have the feeling that > Chapter 11 as well as the Appendices have been added at the time of > the reprint. This to give you my opinion how I see the book. It is an > attempt to work with forecasted envelopes. And a good one ... > > > > For me the practical 'red line' for using the Hurst principle is as > I told you already rather simple. Try to construct two trading bands. > A long and a short period trading band. Hurst tells you how to do > that with pencil and paper. The software today does it automatically > for you. As soon as the short band is above the long one and the > price above the short band you will have an 'overbought' situation. > When the short band falls below the long band and the price is below > the short band you have an 'oversold' situation. The combination of > these 'overbought' and 'oversold' situations with a falling resp. > rising long trend will give you the SELL and BUY signals. I am using > Hurst with weekly views and indexes and must say that the results are > very good ... > > > > Ton. > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: Rakesh Sahgal > > To: [email protected] > > Sent: Monday, October 09, 2006 3:18 PM > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Hurst Channels Code > > > > > > I suggest you get familiar with the concept of cycles a la Hurst > and > > use of Curvilinear Bands before you try to comprehend the code. As > > for the code looking into the future - yes it does. > > > > R > > > > On 10/9/06, Saji Oommen <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Hello, > > > > > > Thanks for sharing the code. Could you kindly confirm > > > that does this code have any ZIG function in it or > > > does it look into future or the signals change when > > > new data comes in. I read through the code and could > > > not make it out. I am in the learning process of AFL. > > > So pardon my ignorance. > > > > > > Regards > > > > > > Saji > > > > > > --- Ton Sieverding <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > The way I see it is rather simple. Let's take the > > > > S&P500. Using a weekly view : > > > > a.. Buy when Blue+Red+Price BELOW Green and Green > > > > rising channel > > > > b.. Sell when Blue+Red+Price ABOVE Green and Green > > > > falling channel > > > > Sell Augustus 2000, > > > > Buy March 2003, > > > > ... still Long. > > > > > > > > Ton. > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: Rakesh Sahgal > > > > To: Amibroker Yahoogroup > > > > Sent: Monday, October 09, 2006 10:57 AM > > > > Subject: [amibroker] Hurst Channels Code > > > > > > > > > > > > For any of those interested in tinkering with > > > > Hurst Channels, am > > > > attaching code I had recieved from group member > > > > Jason Hart. This code > > > > was written by group member going by the nickname > > > > "Ace". > > > > > > > > I was not able to make much use of it. The reason > > > > was - the values of > > > > the channels, current and in the immediate past > > > > i.e. the projection > > > > zone, were not constant. Since the values of the > > > > projections changed > > > > everyday I had no way of making any meaningful use > > > > of it ( I was > > > > basically looking for what Hurst called "Edge > > > > Band" Trades). If my > > > > understanding was incorrect and anyone can make > > > > sense of them, please > > > > be kind enough to share your insights with the > > > > rest of us. > > > > > > > > Rakesh > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > __________________________________________________ > > > Do You Yahoo!? > > > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around > > > http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users > only. > > > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > > > > > For other support material please check also: > > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > > > > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only. > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > For other support material please check also: > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only. 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