Hello Bill, I think Sebastians posts (here and elsewhere) display that he is a very fine thinker and I hope he continues to share his views with us.
Jerry publically offered a signal that he successfully trades, when it is quite rare for traders to do that. That should be a sufficient hypothesis for anyone to go on. I can understand your frustration with people of my type and I am sure there are others who would agree with you. I do endeavour to balance the pink candy floss with some meat and potatoes. Over time I am sure it will pan out. I am proceeding on the basis that there are some members of the forum, who, like me, do like pink candy floss. BrianB2. --- In [email protected], "wavemechanic" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > "Theorize, and then test the theory for validity." > > If you want to play in the trading world's "scientific method sandbox," propose a falsifiable hypothesis and let all chew on it. > > Bill > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "sebastiandanconia" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: <[email protected]> > Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2006 11:10 AM > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns > > > > "...I suggest it is not due to limitations of our equipment, but simply > > a system that is no good as it is explained..." > > > > That's precisely the conclusion I've come to, and it's all Tomasz's > > fault for building AB and making such testing possible.:) > > > > If I can strain your chess analogy a little bit, the edge that > > grandmasters have is that, of all the potential moves available to them > > they can quickly recognize the critical ones and focus on them, > > excluding all the others as unimportant "noise." > > > > As traders, that's what I think we should aspire to. A stock doesn't go > > up because a 5-day EMA crosses above a 20-day EMA or because the > > directional movement index is positive and the ADX is greater than 30. > > Those indicators coincide with the stock's uptrend but aren't the cause. > > Neither is the cause to be found in linear regression, Gann angles, > > Fibonnaci numbers, etc. What is the cause, then? Theorize, and then > > test the theory for validity. That's when we can start to learn > > something. Otherwise, all we're doing is testing random data for > > patterns that are only meaningless coincidences, like the Superbowl > > Theory. > > > > And that's enough sermonizing from me.:) > > > > > > Luck, > > > > Sebastian > > --- In [email protected], "M Webb" <the_bear_98@> wrote: > >> > >> > >> In the old days, programming a computer to play chess and capture the > > mind of a Grandmaster, with the instant "pattern recognition" they > > possessed was very difficult. It took many years before the combination > > of computing power and programming finally got rolling. Now we have > > programs that will beat you like a borrowed mule. It is easy to grade > > these programs as they have ratings that prove how good they are. During > > this same time frame, we now have the computers and programming to > > really back-test and prove a trading theory might have worked in the > > past. We can go buy a book, program it, and discover it doesn't produce > > a reward/risk worth trying at all. Now in the old days, the Grandmaster > > would say "I only think one move ahead, but it is always the best move." > > We found a way to mostly brute force find the same move, but when we try > > to program one of the successful traders systems, the back-test does not > > pan out. I suggest it is not due to limitations of our equipment, but > > simply a system that is no good as it is explained. > >> > >> Although it might be theoretically possible to combine two losing > > systems with a magic ranking process that could produce an overall > > winner, I feel safe in saying no one can come up with an example they > > would share. > >> > >> Monty > >> > >> ----- Original Message ----- > >> From: allansn@ > >> To: [email protected] > >> Sent: Friday, October 20, 2006 12:44 PM > >> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns > >> > >> > >> > >> Just out of curiousity,is it possible to have two non correlated > > trading techniques that show negative backtest results individually,but > > when combined produce above average returns... > >> > >> I am over in Elite trader observing a candlestick debate,and trying > > to understand how "savvy" traders who fully acknowledge that > > candlepatterns fail miserably in backtests insist that they are a great > > confirming indicator.. > >> > >> Is there a method to this madness?? > >> > >> Allan > >> > >> > >> > >> ----- Original Message ----- > >> From: sebastiandanconia > >> Date: Friday, October 20, 2006 10:33 am > >> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns > >> To: [email protected] > >> > >> > I've read about this kind of behavior before, and it's a problem > > for > >> > anyone who is trying to emulate the methods of successful (or > >> > allegedlysuccessful) traders. What is happening is that these > >> > traders aren't > >> > fully conscious of everything in their decision-making process. > > There > >> > are "soft" factors that are key to their success that AREN'T in > > their > >> > "written down" or "official" methods. And if every factor isn't > >> > included the method can't be accurately tested for validity. > >> > > >> > JMO, but I suspect that's one of the reasons it's so difficult for > >> > traders to duplicate the success of even legitimate, well- meaning > >> > system-sellers or "gurus." Maybe they really know something > >> > unique, or > >> > maybe they just had a run of luck when their "fuzzy" thinking > >> > paid off > >> > but that particular set of conditions won't ever be repeated. > >> > > >> > > >> > Luck, > >> > > >> > Sebastian > >> > --- In [email protected], allansn@ wrote: > >> > > > >> > > Hi Jim, > >> > > > >> > > What I find interesting about various pattern recognitions > >> > such as Edwards and Magee type formations and candlesticks is > >> > when you > >> > backtest them in isolation they simply show no predictive > >> > power.I am > >> > predominantly refferring to Candlesticks as I have done extensive > >> > testing in that area. > >> > > > >> > > Yet,I have friends who strictly trade off them with western > > price > >> > patterns and trendlines and return well over 50% annually. > >> > > > >> > > Others I know use them as a filter to their systematic > > trading,and > >> > they know full well that Candlesticks do not backtest well.But > >> > they wont > >> > trade without them > >> > > > >> > > Interesting how the mind works > >> > > > >> > > Allan > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > > >> > > ----- Original Message ----- > >> > > From: jwmc107 > >> > > Date: Thursday, October 19, 2006 7:48 pm > >> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns > >> > > To: [email protected] > >> > > > >> > > > > >> > > > Hi Joe, Brian, Alan and others, > >> > > > > >> > > > Here are Tom's trading results: > >> > > > Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 > >> > > > Tomas 14.80% 18.70% 9.00% 13.50% 29.10% 15.40% > >> > > > S&P500 -10.10% -13.00% -23.40% 28.69% 10.88% 4.91% > >> > > > Nasdaq -39.30% -21.10% -31.50% 50.00% 8.60% 1.40% > >> > > > DJIA -6.20% -7.10% -16.80% 28.28% 5.31% 1.72% > >> > > > > >> > > > The results speak that the system works. Hope that someone can > >> > > > make > >> > > > the code available, as I dont have any programming skill > > myself. > >> > > > > >> > > > There are WL codes available, we can just translate it to AFL. > >> > > > > >> > > > Regards, > >> > > > Jim > >> > > > > >> > > > --- In [email protected], "Joe Landry" wrote: > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Allan > >> > > > > I had to think back a bit. Well I'm schiz'ed, a > >> > > > fundamentalist > >> > > > and a technician. Making money on fundamentals right > >> > > > now(Validea) > >> > > > but I know what > >> > > > > will preserve it is technical analysis.(or risk management?) > >> > > > > > >> > > > > What might be an interesting side note, we had Nelson > > Freeburg > >> > > > of > >> > > > Formula Research give a talk to us last Sat. and > >> > > > > he related as to how his first investment book while he > >> > was at > >> > > > Columbia was Martin Pring's early TA book. This led to his > >> > > > development of a first "system" called Primas (Pring Moving > >> > > > Average > >> > > > System). I've got a cam video of his talk on our server, let > >> > > > me > >> > > > know if you'd like to down load it. > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Best regards > >> > > > > JOE > >> > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > >> > > > > From: allansn@ > >> > > > > To: [email protected] > >> > > > > Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 7:53 AM > >> > > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart > > patterns > >> > > > > > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Joe, > >> > > > > I am shocked...I never would have taken you for a > >> > > > closet "Edwards and Magee" man :) > >> > > > > > >> > > > > Allan > >> > > > > > >> > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > >> > > > > From: Joe Landry > >> > > > > Date: Thursday, October 19, 2006 8:15 am > >> > > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart > > patterns > >> > > > > To: [email protected] > >> > > > > > >> > > > > > I just dusted it off Dimitris' program again and was > >> > > > stepping > >> > > > > > through the > >> > > > > > selections. > >> > > > > > If you're not familiar with it you might want to check out > >> > > > > > Anthony > >> > > > > > Faragasso's charting script > >> > > > > > as labelled below and in the program library. It's a good > >> > > > > > companion for this > >> > > > > > exploration. > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > I tried my hand at on of his most successful patterns > >> > > > called > >> > > > > > "pipes" but was > >> > > > > > not happy with the results. > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > BTW Bulkowski has a newer paperback called Getting Started > >> > > > in > >> > > > > > Chart Patterns > >> > > > > > pub within > >> > > > > > the last year. > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > As far as Thomas is concerned, I would be a potential > >> > > > customer > >> > > > > > for a set of > >> > > > > > Bulkowski pattern recognition > >> > > > > > routines if such were to be produced and put up for sale. > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > Best regards > >> > > > > > JOE > >> > > > > > SECTION_BEGIN("Pattern Recog. Tony Farragasso"); > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > // Name and Purpose ----------------- Faragasso Pattern > >> > > > > > Recognition ----------------- > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > // Date 11/23/03 > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > // Source Anthony Faragasso > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > // Type Indicator, Exploration, AB PT > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > // Patterns Wedge, Broad, Upchannel, Bearish. > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > >> > > > > > From: "brian.z123" > >> > > > > > To: > >> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 12:50 AM > >> > > > > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart > > patterns > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > > Hello Jim, > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > Do you mean the chart patterns from Bulkowskis > >> > > > encyclopedia > >> > > > > > (over 60 > >> > > > > > > patterns)? > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > If you want to code them in AFL some have been done by > >> > > > Dmitiris > >> > > > > > > Tsokaki! s (Hello Dimitris, I hope the fish are jumping > >> > > > into > >> > > > your > >> > > > > > > boat)....from the AFL library. > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > Formula name: Pattern Recognition Exploration > >> > > > > > > Author/Uploader: Dimitris Tsokakis - tsokakis [at] > > oneway.gr > >> > > > > > > Date/Time added: 2001-09-03 14:03:35 > >> > > > > > > Origin: > >> > > > > > > Keywords: > >> > > > > > > Level: medium > >> > > > > > > Flags: exploration > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > DISCLAIMER: Most formulas present in AFL on-line > >> > library are > >> > > > > > > submitted by the users and are provided here on an "as > >> > > > is" > >> > > > and "as > >> > > > > > > available" basis. AmiBroker.com makes no > >> > representations or > >> > > > > > > warranties of any kind to the contents or the operation > >> > > > of > >> > > > material > >> > > > > > > presented here. We do not maintain nor provide technical > >> > > > > > support for > >> > > > > > > 3rd party formulas. > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > Download formula file | Delete formula > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > Description: > >> > > > > > > Paste the code in Automatic Analysis and Explore All > >> > > > Stocks > >> > > > > > for the > >> > > > > > > last date of your data. > >> > > > > > > In Results click twice a label , for example "a TR" and > >> > > > you > >> > > > will > >> > > > > > > collect all ascending Triangles marked with an "1". > >> > > > > > > This Exploration recognizes the following patterns: > >> > > > > > > +Ascending Wedges "aW" > >> > > > > > > +Descending Wedges "dW" > >> > > > > > > + ascending Triangles "a TR" > >> > > > > > > +descending Triangles "d TR" > >> > > > > > > +ascending channel "a ll" > >> > > > > > > +descending channel "d ll" > >> > > > > > > +almost horizontal channel "ll" > >> > > > > > > +Converging Support and Resistance > >> > > > > > > +Diverging Support and Resistance > >> > > > > > > +N/A, ie examples not belonging to any above category. > >> > > > > > > You may decrease sensitivity, changing > >> > > > > > > per=3; > >> > > > > > > with another percentage higher than 3. > >> > > > > > > For Indicator Builder paste the code in Comments > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > It would be an interesting project to code all of the > >> > > > major > >> > > > patterns > >> > > > > > > (if it hasn'! t been d one already). > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > There is also a formula there for identifying candle > >> > > > patterns > >> > > > > > by Top > >> > > > > > > Gun Herman van den Bergen.... > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > Converting candles to bar chart patterns would be > > another > >> > > > > > > interesting project. > >> > > > > > > I'll do both projects if I run out of things to do. > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > I haven't tried either of the formulas....I just noticed > >> > > > them there > >> > > > > > > the other day so passing it on to you. > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > BrianB2. > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "jwmc107" wrote: > >> > > > > > >> > >> > > > > > >> > >> > > > > > >> > >> > > > > > >> Is there any AFL code to scan for Bulkowski's chart > >> > > > patterns and > >> > > > > > > to > >> > > > > > >> share with? > >> > > > > > >> > >> > > > > > >> Thanks, > >> > > > > > >> Jim > >> > > > > > >> > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between > >> > > > users > >> > > > only. > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e- mail > >> > > > directly > >> > > > to > >> > > > > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > For other support material please check also: > >> > > > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > >> > > > > > > > > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only. > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > > > For other support material please check also: > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > No virus found in this incoming message. > > Checked by AVG Free Edition. > > Version: 7.1.408 / Virus Database: 268.13.9/490 - Release Date: 10/20/2006 > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only. 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