The fact that people make consistent money off the stock market is evidence that the markets are not random. It appears that self- purported "experts" who likely work for large financial firms will go to great lengths to use data to help people forget that the markets are not random -- of course it's not random, because people are making consistent wins off the market, using technical analysis. People such as John Ehlers, for example, who have created black box mehods that will always profit from the market, without any human intervention.
These financial firms have everything to gain by demonstrating that technical analysis is an illusion. They want to handle your money so they can make their profits. Don't ever believe them. They want you to ride out the long-term dips in the market without ever moving your money. They make more money if you don't move your money. The compliance portion of the financial industry goes to greath lengths to make sure that once they have your money, very few people in the financial world can actually use technical analysis to make you regular profits. Try getting a job as a financial planner, based on your ability to make people money using technical analysis -- you'll never get near a desk at any firm. They don't want you to contradict the BS that they feed the masses. In order for financial firms to make money off you, they have to make you lose money. Somebody always loses in the stock market. They just want to make sure it's you. So continue to seek out technical analysis to make consistent gains in the market. Regularly read articles written by people who are already doing this successfully, so you don't lose track of reality, since the financial firms are rich enough to produce a very convincing BS argument. ~Bman --- In [email protected], "cstrader" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Hi Tom Tom: > > Yes, an interesting article. I was particularly intrigued by this line: > > "technical analysis has not been validated in controlled studies " > > Is there any evidence that what we are trying to do might ever work? How > could we prove that it does? > > chuck > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Tom Tom" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: <[email protected]> > Sent: Friday, December 01, 2006 5:12 PM > Subject: [amibroker] Random Walk - step 2 - : Predicitable ? > > > > To go on dicussion about random walk, nice article at the middle of this > > page : > > > > http://www.duke.edu/~rnau/411georw.htm > > > > Combine: Random Walk and Prediction. > > Technical analysis... usefull ? Financial information ... usefull ? Even > > illegal information (hidden to public) .. usefull ? Last one maybe. > > Others, > > humm.... > > This is what about deals this article. > > > > For me, next theory could be a Chaotic Fractal Near-Random Walk... : )) > > Chaotic : because spurious peak in the data wich can initiate further > > mouvment > > Fractal : year, month, day, hour, minute, sec... same patterns > > Near-Random Walk : Random Walk but predictable, because i don't think > > price > > move randomly... > > If they move randomly... tehnical or fundamental analysis are useless, so > > there is no mean to try to trade at all, (only to give commission to the > > broker héhé). > > > > Seriously, from this article, what seems emerging from last years, is that > > price is random walk, but volatility maybe not... It is well explained in > > the article. Arch and Garch model are mentionned. > > Someone try this on AB ? Trade based only about volatility prediction (so > > predict risk, and manage portfolio depending those prediction about > > volatility)... and so don't bother with the price random-walk ? > > > > > > Cheers, > > Mich > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > > Les révélations de la starac 6 commentées par Jérémy! > > http://starac2006.spaces.live.com/ > > > > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only. > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG: > > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ > > > > For other support material please check also: > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > >
