Hello Ton, > BTW if you know the book of David Aronson - "Evidence Based TA" - my remark about randomness and TA is where EBTA is all about.
Yes, I know it, really a great book, lot of precious insight into statistics in general and into the data-mining bias in particular, I wished I knew it earlier : ) For the ones not owning the book, this paper is an excellent start on the data mining bias: http://kdl.cs.umass.edu/people/jensen/papers/mlj2000.pdf but the experiments in EBTA are much more useful for the trader .. >I have mailed 10 time series of stocks to several technical analysts >around the world. Most of them in the Belenux. Question was to select >the 4 correct stocks. 6 were home made stocks with a randomizer. Of >the 49 answers I got the result was that only 1 analyst could select >the correct combination of 4 stocks. He could not tell me why he >elected these stocks. Most of them or 38 had zero correct stocks, 5 >only 1 correct, 4 had 2 correct stocks and 1 had 3 correct stocks >selected. Interesting, there are many textbooks containing artifical price time series following random walks, and indeed they look very real .. Regards, Nicolas
