Ara You give a lot of quiet unselfish help to others, via your posts, so a special for your (maybe not as good as an answer from Jayson but still relevant I think):
- I am working on a new 'sector' based trade, albeit with a subtle creative twist (the play is based on a nuance in the markets) - it is an intraday trade (any old timeframe will do - not tick - say 5 minute bars but it could be 2 or 10 minutes) it is intraday because: a) I like high frequency trades for statistical (equity) smoothing b) the nuance exits in RT (I didn't make it that way it is just there in the RT charts) c) it stacks up at that timeframe (my comissions are 0.1% each way, slippage is a furphy and my targets are +0.5% net) i.e. the size of the moves are tradeable, which of course varies from market to market, trade to trade etc - but it will work in other timeframes d) it suits my personality (I want the outcome today so I can go to bed tonight for a good relaxed rest - I have my pay for the day in the bank) i.e it is just a job - I go to work each day and like to get the days work over and done with. e) intraday manages some other risks I want to avoid (overnight market risk) f) I can deploy the strategy on a local platform (keep my money in an Australian account) that allows me to manage it with low 'business overheads' and low stress (I don't have to hire an international tax accountant :-) ) Keep in mind I haven't traded this one yet (this is what I am seeing in the charts - live 'testing' - IMO traders who don't, or won't, believe what they are seeing are fundamentally flawed traders): W/L isn't so important, outside of payoff ratio, but I expect to well outperform random W/L ratios == 50/50 +_ statistical error/ so I will do better than break even W/L with payoff ratios around 1.5/1 at the least(I am being very conservative here privately I am looking at a W/L of at least 60-70% but I am not going to debate the topic). I expect trible figures P.A%. The energy overheads of the trade are low (no extensive number crunching etc) - I can run on visual/manual trading with only an alert (so I can relax around the house and the alert will call me back to the screen if needs be). Note: it is not tick trading so I don't need the big guns (AB/IB/ATR) and I don't have any sweat on my brow with every pixel of price movement). The process is: a) start off the Aus day by looking at a few intraday charts (overnight/previous days) - around 5 will do it (sector orientated charts/component stocks etc) b) the charts DICTATE the trade c) wait for the Aussie open d) visually confirm the setup as it unfolds (no scanning, no formulas - I know in advance which underlying I am on) e) take the trade (the underlying can be a stock/sector/index and the instrument can be anything that works with the trade - some instruments work better than others based on availabilty/liquidity/carry costs/comissions etc but the strategy remains the same) f) mentally 'set' a target and stop (some discretion comes into it based on the charts) Note - to an onlooker it seems like discretionary trading but it isn't (the 1000's of hours of study, backtesting, evaluation studies, discussions on evaluation in this forum, experience etc all go into it - I am not dependent on software/platform - if the trade doesn't demand a particular platform or software I don't use it just for the sake of it - KISSam or Sally) - I believe in the power of the mind and 'work' to train the trading mind - once it is trained why get in front of it? How many trades per month? - the strategy is flexible, especially if the trader is flexible One example: - it can be all over in 1/2 hour from market open - the best setup isn't there every day so if I don't push it then the trade is say three opens week * ave 0.5% P/L per trade Of course there are so many other markets/instruments etc . I could drink a lot of coffee and trade 24 hours non-stop (re-nter later in the day or after the opening trade is over go to another underlying that is still in setup etc and re-enter the market or wait for the next market to open and play again)? brian_z --- In [email protected], "akaloustian" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Jayson, > > You have a very interesting system! > > I am curious how you use it and what kind of results you get... > > Decision making process... number of trades per month.... win > ratio... etc. > > Ara > > > > > > --- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], "Jayson" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > All; > > > > A great deal of my work revolves around sector analysis. I like to > select > > stocks whose sectors are strong or advancing. one way to gauge a > sectors > > strength is to measure its components closing price against > previous prices. > > I like to use 25 day new highs as my gauge. The enclosed scan ( ! > sector > > analysis) creates a list of 13 composite symbols. One for each of > the 12 > > sectors plus one of the entire universe under study. By default the > > composites will be stored in group to 253. > > > > To run the scan first choose a universe of stocks. your range > should equal > > one day. On a large universe your initial scan will take a few > minutes. > > > > to view the composites I use a market Strength indicator (CMF or > your > > favorite) as well as the custom indicator, Sector View. this > indicator > > produces a smooth oscillator in histogram form. readings above 0 > indicate > > market strength, below zero indicate weakness. The number > indicates the % > > of stocks within a given sector that have reached new 25 day highs > or Lows. > > in my bottom pane I have a simple line plot and include volume for > the > > sector. > > > > The resulting tab should look something like this.... > > > > > > > > I have collected this data with XL for over year and found to be > very > > useful. AB makes my life so much easier! there may very well > > be a more efficient way to calculate these composites, I'm open to > any > > suggestions or improvements. btw a simple exploration of group 253 > will > > provide a snapshot of RS by each sector. Those falling above > ~Universe are > > out performing, those below are under performing. I hope some of > you may > > find this useful. > > > > Regards, > > > > > > > > Jayson >
