Yuki, Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts. That was very interesting read.
Best regards, Tomasz Janeczko amibroker.com ----- Original Message ----- From: "Yuki Taga" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Tomasz Janeczko" <[email protected]> Sent: Tuesday, September 23, 2008 2:13 AM Subject: Re: US now and Japan in 90's, was: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week? > Hi Tomasz, > > I am not going to try and pretend that I understand all the > intricacies of either our situation a decade ago, or the American > situation now. What I do understand is human nature when the twin > stimuli of fear and greed show up. That's how I survive, even > thrive. > > That said, some obvious similarities: > > - tons of bad private debt > > - tons of government debt > > - banks under pressure because assets that made up their capital > bases were either priced down or no price discovery was possible > > - it seems a real estate bubble was the big culprit in both cases; at > one time in 1989 the grounds of the Imperial Palace in Tokyo had a > valuation greater than the entire State of California, which is > absurd to say the least, because no one would ever make that swap, > but the valuation implied that Californians would, or should, have > been willing to do it, even tossing in some cash along with their > state > > Some obvious differences: > > - Japan's private debt was mostly corporate; individuals for the most > part were, and are, quite solvent : America seems to have a problem > with personal debt, leading in at least some measure to the problem > unfolding right now > > - Japan's workforce was, and is, declining : America's continues to > grow, so America has an easier time servicing its debt > > - America seems much more willing to try and get this mess off the > books than Japan was; we tried to pretend there was no mess, and > could for a while, because we were not dependent on external > financing; it was only when our large banks began to feel the threat > of extreme premiums or even exclusion from international banking that > we finally wrote the bad stuff off and injected public money into the > banks so they could continue to function > > Two thoughts right now: > > 1) God help us if the US does not implement a bailout, and pretty > fast. > > 2) That fence the US has been building along the border with Mexico > may end up being used to keep Americans *in* rather than to keep > Mexicans out. ^_^ > > Yuki > > Monday, September 22, 2008, 9:23:05 PM, you wrote: > > TJ> Yuki, > > TJ> On a more positive note - I am sure that list members would > TJ> love to hear your opinion about the similarities (if any) > TJ> between Japan in the early nineties, and the US now. > > TJ> In Bernanke famous speech (2002) that Patrick mentioned earlier in this > thread > TJ> http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm > TJ> we can find this: > TJ> "The Japanese situation is a complex one [...] > TJ> Japan's economy faces some significant barriers to growth besides > deflation, > TJ> including massive financial problems in the banking and > TJ> corporate sectors and a large overhang of government debt. > TJ> private-sector financial problems have muted the effects of the > TJ> monetary policies that have been tried in Japan, > TJ> even as the heavy overhang of government debt has made Japanese > TJ> policymakers more reluctant to use aggressive fiscal policies > TJ> [...] Fortunately, the U.S. economy does not share these > TJ> problems, at least not to anything like the same degree" > > TJ> Unfortunatelly the last sentence does not seem to be valid in 2008. > > TJ> Best regards, > TJ> Tomasz Janeczko > TJ> amibroker.com > TJ> ----- Original Message ----- > TJ> From: "Tomasz Janeczko" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > TJ> To: <[email protected]> > TJ> Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:43 PM > TJ> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week? > > >>> Hello, >>> >>> In his post Patrick just added single sentence to >>> make sure I notice his private e-mail in my inbox. >>> I can not see anything wrong with that. >>> I have seen hundreds of posts on this list mentioning >>> that somebody posted something via private channel, >>> and nobody complained. >>> Could we continue in a (more) friendly atmosphere? >>> Thank you in advance and have a good day. >>> >>> Best regards, >>> Tomasz Janeczko >>> amibroker.com >>> ----- Original Message ----- >>> From: "Yuki Taga" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>> To: "vlanschot" <[email protected]> >>> Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:18 PM >>> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week? >>> >>> >>>> Hi vlanschot, >>>> >>>> You overrate your ability to engender panic by several orders of >>>> magnitude. >>>> >>>> And yes, you cannot possibly imagine how I coped last week, nor this >>>> week, nor during any week, unless you take the other side of my >>>> trades. >>>> >>>> I just find it strange that you had to announce that you sent a >>>> private email -- on a public list. >>>> >>>> Also, FWIW, I think I was part of this community before you were, and >>>> I don't think it has changed that much. >>>> >>>> You can go back to trying to look clever now; I won't attempt to get >>>> into your way. But frankly, the bulk of the membership here is >>>> probably not the least bit interested to know that you sent an email >>>> to anyone who is a member of this list (or the list owner), the >>>> contents of which they will probably never share. >>>> >>>> And personally, I could not be less interested. But I find it >>>> strange nonetheless. >>>> >>>> Yuki >>>> >>>> Monday, September 22, 2008, 6:43:26 PM, you wrote: >>>> >>>> v> Hi Yuki, >>>> >>>> v> You seem quite emotional about emails. I can only imagine how you >>>> v> coped last week. Anyway, you just confirmed why I increasingly feel >>>> v> this community has changed over the years in terms of its way of >>>> v> communicating and sensitivities to rules. I believe there have been >>>> v> plenty of other references in this group to private emails, and >>>> v> personally I never realized my email would cause such a reaction. >>>> >>>> v> In other words, I won't bother again forwarding references which I >>>> v> thought other readers might find interesting. You can calm down now. >>>> >>>> v> PS >>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> v> I've send you a private e-mail re my own opinion. >>>>>> >>>>>> That would be "I've sent" of course, and highly illuminative for the >>>>>> list members, at that. Why would you mention on list that you sent >>>>>> someone a message off list? Would you suspect they are not in >>>>>> receipt of such message? Would you like to get subscribers to your >>>>>> off list messages? >>>>>> >>>>>> I've sent a number of people private emails. And I'm beating my >>>>>> benchmark by more than 30 percent. >>>>>> >>>>>> Phooey. >>>>>> >>>>>> Yuki >>>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> ------------------------------------ >>>> >>>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only. >>>> >>>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to >>>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com >>>> >>>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG: >>>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ >>>> >>>> For other support material please check also: >>>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html >>>> Yahoo! Groups Links >>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> ------------------------------------ >>> >>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only. >>> >>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to >>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com >>> >>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG: >>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ >>> >>> For other support material please check also: >>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html >>> Yahoo! Groups Links >>> >>> >>> > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only. > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG: > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ > > For other support material please check also: > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > Yahoo! Groups Links > > >
