I always take Roubini very seriously. He's one of the few people who's opinion I genuinely value.
15th November is apparently a key day for hedge fund redemptions. I'm quite sure why. Maybe that's that's a widespread closing date for filing of redemptions. But I think you're analysis is largely correct. Essentially EUR/JPY is the key cross right now. Which is obviously where you end up by looking at the USD/EUR and USD/JPY... --- In [email protected], "brian_z111" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > In the end I decided that I could only concentrate on a few products > > and they were going to be the main line futures contracts. > > I will probably be there too within a year or so ... narrowing the > trading base is a process you go through ... I am letting the process > run its course .. eventually I expect I will only trade the eS. > > While you are on line... since you are interested in the carry > trade/currency relationship ... Roubini is agreeing with us (see copy > below from the RGE Monitor site newsletter). > > The carry trade succumbed to bank de-leveraging and investor > repatriation, resulting in the appreciation of carry trade funding > currencies - the most popular being the JPY and USD. Bank de- > leveraging has led to a shortage of these currencies, as most cross- > border bank liabilities were denominated in them. With tighter > lending, investors have had to unwind their carry trades to meet > margin calls and, as asset prices adjusted to a recessionary outlook, > to avoid further losses. U.S. and Japan provided the lion's share > of the world's investment flows. The repatriation of U.S. and > Japanese investor funds sapped the strength of other currencies > versus the USD and JPY. > > > > The spread of recession and financial crisis beyond the U.S. to > several other countries kills the appetite for foreign investments, > driving repatriation. This leads to further currency depreciation > in carry trade destination currencies especially emerging markets > which had over-hedged or under-hedged against USD strength. A > stronger dollar may contribute to further commodity price declines as > countries with weaker currencies are able to purchase fewer goods. > By the same token, weaker non-U.S. currencies may sow the seeds of > higher inflation in countries vulnerable to imported inflation. In > an environment where high yield alone is no longer attractive, the > combination of slowing growth and rising inflationary pressures may > set up emerging markets for further punishment from currency markets. > > FWIW a couple of new observations: > > - Yen and Euro kicked up a little today against the USD > - as discussed on the weekend govts have started to intervene (AUD > supported by RBA buying, G7 warned they will support the Yen > - this is clouding the water a little > - if their efforts move a little more then some speculators will get > shaken out and prolong the counter move > > IMO the market is being controlled by deleveraging .. fundamentals > are counting for anything anywhere .... US fund managers appear to be > buying in stocks. > > USD/Yen and USD/Euro could be the best indicator we have right now of > the leveraging strength ... assuming govt intervention hadn't > occurred then weakening there would indicate that the carry trade > repatriation was slowing. > > Also it is likely to be cyclical (Hedge Funds will be playing for > their lives and stalling fire sales until nearer the end of the > month) .. the current hiatus may signal end of month closure ... if > the green days become more frequent in the next couple of weeks, > whcih I think they will, look out for any carryover of deleveraging > wind-down at the later half of next month.... more fire sales could > occur then. > > brian_z > > > > --- In [email protected], "sidhartha70" <sidhartha70@> > wrote: > > > > Brian, > > > > Yes I went through the same thought process as you probably. > > In the end I decided that I could only concentrate on a few products > > and they were going to be the main line futures contracts. > > To trade UK stocks I'd also be paying 0.5% stamp duty which just > isn't > > an option... so the UK lost my business!!! > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote: > > > > > > > Obviously it always depends on the exact product mix... but as a > > > > general rule, for most traders, IQ Feed is def. more bang for > your > > > buck... > > > > > > > > I'm in the UK... and eSignal also charge me VAT... (17.5%) and > IQ > > > Feed > > > > don't.... > > > > > > True on the VAT - called GST at 10% in Australia...... > > > > > > ... but, it looks like you don't trade the UK or Euro stocks? > > > > > > If you did wouldn't eS be obligatory? > > > > > > What I am saying is, if we want our local exchange and want to > move > > > around between Asia, Europe and the US wouldn't eS be the only > choice > > > (add exchanges for the same base fee). > > > > > > IQ seems to be for those who have settled on the US or Canada and > > > aren't going anywhere else. > > > > > > To me it is not worth the hassle of changing providers - I > settled on > > > eS so that I can roam freely. > > > > > > brian_z > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "sidhartha70" <sidhartha70@> > > > wrote: > > > > > > > > Brian, > > > > > > > > I'm not sure thats correct. > > > > > > > > IQ Feed is $55 basic (includes US stocks), $20 US Futures, $25 > Intl > > > > Futures. + Exchange Fees (includes 500 symbol viewing) > > > > > > > > ESignal... if you want a data only feed... $50 basic, $35 US & > Intl > > > > Stocks, $35 US & Intl Futures. + Exchange fees (includes only > 200 > > > > symbol viewing - and extra $50 a month to take that up to 500). > > > > > > > > IQ Feed don't do European futures. If fact I think they only do > US & > > > > Canadian. > > > > > > > > Obviously it always depends on the exact product mix... but as a > > > > general rule, for most traders, IQ Feed is def. more bang for > your > > > buck... > > > > > > > > I'm in the UK... and eSignal also charge me VAT... (17.5%) and > IQ > > > Feed > > > > don't.... > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> > wrote: > > > > > > > > > > Not sure if you noticed but IQ is not cheaper than eS, for > non US > > > > > traders, if you compare apples to apples. > > > > > > > > > > Exchange fees are the same, and unavoidable for both. > > > > > > > > > > IQ basic + RT futures + RT international futures == USD 50 + > 25 + > > > 25 > > > > > eS (as above + == USD 95) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > AFAIK IQ basic doesn't have futures included. > > > > > IMO US Indices RT data is pretty average unless it includes > > > futures. > > > > > Also IQ doesn't have pre/after market data. > > > > > For non US citz who take eS they can add any international > > > exchange > > > > > e.g. ASX RT, for the price of the exchange fee only. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > brian_z > > > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], dingo <waledingo@> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > I'm going to be trying out IQFeed and have noticed some > > > differences > > > > > in what > > > > > > the IQFeed site says vs the Amibroker site: > > > > > > > > > > > > 1. Amibroker says $50 / month + exchange fees - IQFeed says > $55 > > > + - > > > > > which > > > > > > one is correct? > > > > > > > > > > > > 2. Amibroker says to download IQFeed API client setup > (version > > > > > 4.2.1.4) - > > > > > > IQFeed says to download version Download IQFeed Client > 4.4.0.3 > > > > > (5/13/2008) > > > > > > - which one should I use? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Thanks for your help! > > > > > > > > > > > > d > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
