Hi Howard,

Thanks for clearing that up.


RZ




________________________________
From: Howard B <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]
Sent: Monday, 11 May, 2009 8:03:41 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Portfolio construction





Hi Robert --

What I wrote was:
"Again, the choice will be between multistage development and single stage 
development. 

The multistage approach assumes that the best individual A, B, and C
create the best portfolio P. This approach has each of A, B, and C
being developed, tested, and validated separately."

------------ --------- --------- --------- -----

I was making the point that the two stage approach begins with stage one -- the 
development of three individual trading systems, A, B, and C.  After the 
developer is satisfied with those, stage two combines the three individual 
systems into a portfolio.  A, B, and C, will be the best they can be, according 
to the objective function used to develop them.  The portfolio will be as good 
as the input to it allows.  

The alternative is to develop the three systems and the portfolio in a single 
stage development process.  That process will be much more complex.  But, after 
it is done, the portfolio will be the best it can be.  This portfolio will most 
probably be much better than the portfolio developed using the two stage 
approach, but each of the three component system will probably be inferior to 
the A, B, and C developed using the two stage approach.


In the two stage process, the three individual systems are the best they can 
be, but the portfolio is not.  In the single stage process, the portfolio is 
the best it can be, but the three individual systems that make it up are not.

Thanks,
Howard




   


      

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