At AMSAT-UK Colloquium last week, Peter said the current cost to HEO for P3E or something like it is curently $10 Million (and the joke was, pick your currency--it's about the same no matter what--US dollar, Euros, GBP, etc.--BIG money)
So the number holds. Mark N8MH On Mon, Sep 24, 2012 at 3:47 PM, Barry Baines <[email protected]> wrote: > Subject: [amsat-bb] Re: AMSAT-BB Digest, Vol 7, Issue 312 > From: Mark Spencer <mspencer12345@xxxxxxxx> > Date: Sun, 23 Sep 2012 13:26:45 -0700 (PDT) > Just out of curiosity what would a reasonable estimate of the launch costs be > for a P3E class satellite ? > > Regards > Mark Spencer > VE7AFZ (long lapsed former AMSAT member (: ) > Mark: > > Back in 2008 when we last seriously looked at this, the cost of launching a > satellite into a Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) of the size/weight of > Eagle or P3-E was $8 million. Today that figure is more like $10 million, > though Peter, DB2OS (President of AMSAT-DL) probably has a more accurate > figure than this. Even so, the cost to launch is what makes things > prohibitively expensive. Raising that kind of money (plus the cost of the > spacecraft itself) is not viewed as viable given the results of our past fund > raising efforts. > > The last HEO launch was for P3-D/AO-40. Please keep in mind that the money > that was passed through AMSAT-NA totaled over $2 Million for P3-D/AO-40, from > 1993-2000 (seven years) with considerable help from individual donors, ARRL > matching donor program, AMSAT-UK, etc. Other organizations, such as AMSAT-DL > and JAMSAT also had their own fundraising efforts as well in support of those > aspects of the program that they were handling. AMSAT also developed the > SBS (Specific Bearing Structure) as part of P3-D program that became the > "frame" that housed P3-D on the launch vehicle. At that time, we believe we > had pretty much "maxed out" what might be raised from within the amateur > radio community in North America. Unfortunately, that considerable > fundraising effort wouldn't get us 20% of the current launch costs. > Clearly, we must expand beyond the amateur radio community to raise funds of > this magnitude, but to do so requires both a non-amateur radio "vision" to > what a HEO s! at! > ellite would provide (e.g. excite non-amateurs) as well as a "Case for > Support" that would attract major donors, such as foundations. To date, we > have not been able to put together a plan that would meet these expectations. > > Needless-to-say, given today's costs, the launch economics is the major > inhibitor, and not necessarily the cost of building the satellite itself > (though that also costs "real money" depending upon size and features and > whether major systems, such as propulsion are donated as was the case with > P3-D). > > So, let's look deeper into the launch cost environment to determine what > AMSAT might be able to "afford" under current circumstances: > > The cost to launch a "microsat" (e.g. a 9" x 9" x 9" structure such as AO-51) > was estimated in 2008 to be around $350,000.00. That is why we opted for a > 1u cubesat (4" x 4" x 4") back in 2008 as replacement satellite for AO-51-- > we couldn't afford the launch of a microsat given our finances at the time > and the concern about being able to raise the funds to pay for a launch that > would likely increase in cost of time. > > To put this further in perspective, as I recall, back in 2008 the cost to > launch a 1u cubesat was around $60-80K to place a cubesat in LEO. The > current cost is about $120K for 1 Kg of mass to LEO (a cubesat is 1.1 Kg). > The doubling of launch cost is due in part to the significant interest in > cubesats by the US Government, aerospace firms (Boeing, for example), and > others who have "real money" to place cubesat payloads in LEO. Clearly, as > Tony, AA2TX (AMSAT's VP-Engineering) pointed out to me, the cubesat has > evolved from a university "novelty" to a standard spacecraft specification. > This cost increase is the reason why AMSAT applied for an ELaNA grant in 2011 > (we were selected in 2012) and where we will continue to apply for ELaNA > grants in order to be able to "afford" launches. Clearly, it make much more > sense to focus on dollars donated to AMSAT for spacecraft development rather > than launches if we can get "others" to support our launch costs. > > BTW, "Aviation Week & Space Technology Magazine" had a series of articles in > the 30 JUL 12 issue ("Small Satellites: Doing More with Less") which > highlights this evolution, including cubesats, such as TechEdSat that will be > the first US cubesat to be deployed from the ISS using the same deployment > scheme (JEM-SSOD or Small Satellite Orbital Deployer) as the Vietnamese > student F-1 cubesat that will be deployed this week. Information about > TechEdSat may be found here: > http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/TechEdSat.html > > Coupled with the launch costs is the "justification" for launches. NASA and > others (such as the National Science Foundation) will support launch > opportunities if the proposal meets THEIR strategic goals. Consequently, the > most effective way to "hitch a ride" is to put something in an amateur radio > space frame that meets their expectations, such as a scientific/educational > payload and/or provide "educational outreach." For example: > > 1. ARISSat-1/Kedr deployed by RSC/Energia from the ISS in August 2011 with a > student scientific payload developed by Kursk State University. AMSAT > developed ground based software to capture telemetry from both the satellite > and the payload, with amateurs forwarding captured data to a central server. > ARISSat-1/Kedr was considered to be a "prototype" for deploying student > payloads. Education outreach was also part of our efforts with ARISSat-1, > where, for example, telemetry data is available for student analysis. > Whether there are future opportunities for more ARISSat deployments remains > to be seen. > > 2. AMSAT-UK developed FunCube (funcube.org.uk) under the model where > educational outreach is the justification (to be launched in 2013). The > satellite has received financial support from the Radio Communications > Foundation and is being developed in collaboration with ISIS-Innovative > Solutions in Space BV (a Dutch small satellite company that is a spin-off > from Delft University of Technology). AMSAT-UK is developing ground-based > software with an easy-to-use receiver (FunCube Dongle developed by Howard > Long, G6LVB) to encourage use of the satellite in the classroom. > > 3. FOX-1 will have a student scientific payload (MEMS Gyro originally > developed by Penn State-Erie students) as justification for NASA to pay for > our launch under the ELaNA grant. Ground-based software for capture of > satellite telemetry and payload data is also being developed using a central > server for data to be forwarded. AMSAT is also focused on creating education > outreach materials focused on Fox-1 that will be appropriate for future > missions as well. > > 4. The appointment of Mark Hammond, N8MH as AMSAT's VP-Educational Relations > and the subsequent work that he is doing to develop relationships with > outside organizations (including ARRL and NASA Education), develop an > "educational outreach" capability in support of AMSAT's scientific and > education mission, and work to foster support of "STEM" (Science, Technology, > Engineering, Mathematics) as part of more traditional engineering work on > space craft is in recognition of the fact that we are dependent upon the > support of other organizations to be able to afford to fly. "Education > outreach" is the new "cost" (one that AMSAT can hopefully "afford") that we > must bear to keep amateur radio in space. > > Clearly, it is launch costs that is driving much of what AMSAT can afford to > accomplish. In addition, we must recognize that those that pay for the > launch will only do so if the satellite provides a benefit that meets their > goals/expectations. Clearly, future opportunities for placing amateur > radio transponders in HEO will be dependent upon finding partners who have a > need to place THEIR payload(s) in those orbits AND have the major funding to > support the launch. In essence, that is what AMSAT-DL attempted to do by > persuading the German government to fund P3-E as part of a larger mission to > Mars. Unfortunately, their attempts did not pan out. > > BTW, we'd be happy to accept your $44.00 to renew your AMSAT membership; you > can renew online at www.amsat.org... ;-) > > > Regards, > > > Barry Baines, WD4ASW > President-AMSAT > > _______________________________________________ > Sent via [email protected]. Opinions expressed are those of the author. > Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! > Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb -- Mark L. Hammond [N8MH] _______________________________________________ Sent via [email protected]. Opinions expressed are those of the author. Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb
