As a side note, I'm amazed at your conversion rate from Lite to Pro. I have 50% as many Lite downloads but only 5% as many Pro downloads. My Lite version gets a 4.5 rating, Pro gets 4.9. Looks like I need to look into those Video and Social Sharing strategies.
Currently I just pop up a dialog box "advert" every so often (with a link into the Market). Looks like that's not enough. Thanks for the tips. Back to the main topic, the data does not show that "piracy is indeed a significant problem", but shows that many non-paying users are using your app. The big question is would they have paid for your had they not been able to get hold of the pirate version. That's a very difficult question to answer. On 30 August 2010 20:59, keyeslabs <keyes...@gmail.com> wrote: > I've been overwhelmed with responses to this article over the past few > days. Let me just say a few things generally about the "study", the > results, and the conclusions that one can draw. > > 1. This study obviously isn't scientific. It's better than anecdotal > and intuition to be sure, but it's not scientific. It seems that many > (not all) news outlets ran with this as definitive proof of something > or another. It's clearly not. I will say that it DOES reflect > reality as I've experienced it as an Android developer. Much more > than 2/3 of the installs of my app are pirated. That is reality. > > 2. I have no vendetta against any particular country. I in fact do > NOT believe that Australia is "an oversized island full of criminals" > as one rather unpleasant message accused me. I've received a large > number of emails (some that are fairly nasty) trying to imply that I > somehow dislike this country or that. I stated my assumptions and my > method as clearly as I could, and I welcome similar studies that use > better methods or models and a bigger data set. I would be very > interested to see more along these lines. > > 3. My app, Screebl Pro, follows a pattern very similar to many fairly > successful apps on Android Market. My lite versions is VERY > functional, with the Pro version providing only a few select advanced > features beyond Lite. Lite has about 150,000 downloads, and Pro just > over 10,000, with both having approval ratings of 4.5 stars. My paid > app has fairly high visibility in the market (been hovering near the > top 25 in its category and top 100 overall for months). I use viral > marketing from my Lite to Pro version, and in fact pioneered some of > the techniques used by many apps now including embedding a video feed > in the Lite version, including social sharing features, etc. I think > the points raised in this thread about utility apps having different > "piracy profiles" is likely very valid, but I have no data to support > that assertion. > > 4. As for the statistical validity of my charts, there are many > complaints that have merit. In the end I chose to not filter and just > include everything from the 90-day span. Obviously, however, country > samples that include only 5 installs are not going to be > representative of the purchasing habits of the entire country. > > 5. Data corruption is possible. I have no real way of evaluating > that, unless one considers that the corruption occurred as part of my > own collection, although I doubt this as I used very simple > techniques. Also the results for the larger data sets (U.S. and UK) > are in line with previous samples that I've done on piracy of my app. > As I pointed out in my article, I use Flurry and Google Checkout. I > made no attempt to filter that data or scrub it. Flurry at least > attempts to track "unique users", and Google Checkout obviously tracks > purchases uniquely. > > I'm all in on Android. I want the platform to succeed, and I am > invested in its success. I did this study to convince myself and > others (that actually have the influence and ability to affect change > in the platform) that piracy is indeed a significant problem for me > and my app. I would welcome others that question my data, technique, > or motives and also have access to similar raw data to perform their > own tests. It was fairly easy to do (took me a total of a couple > hours), and anyone that has flurry or the likes installed on a paid > app should be able to do the same. > > Dave > > On Aug 28, 1:58 am, gosh <steve...@unimelb.edu.au> wrote: > > Hi Dave, > > > > Thanks for the stats - as disconcerting as they are. > > > > As an Australian software developer I was very disappointed to see > > Australia up top in the percentages on your scale of software pirates, > > wrt to your app - which I find hard to explain, subjectively or > > otherwise. > > > > I'll make a few points though (I'm assuming your figures are for your > > utility 'Screebl Pro', via your link): > > > > * Having some background in data analysis, I don't consider sample > > sizes under 300 to be statistically significant - which leaves you > > with 4 rows of data at this stage. > > > > * Going on your app, the US is the only place where Android is a big > > success thus far - I do know that 'utility' programs are a bit > > 'techie' for most regular phone users, but I'm thinking percentages > > here. > > > > * Android phones are fairly few on the ground in Australia (in my > > limited experience with other Android owners - other owners have been > > either software developers/publishers or university students, many of > > whom are from overseas - many/most countries). That said, since the > > 'main' telco here (Telstra) began selling Android phones here in April > > 2010, some regular folk/mums-and-dads are now starting to buy them…. > > i.e. The fact that australia is 4th in your list of overall downloads > > is very surprising to me, given the great lack of Google/Android-phone > > focus upon Australia - I thought it would be down around the NZ > > figures. Note: Most ads I've seen for Android phones here do 'not' > > even mention 'Android' at all (E.g. the recent ads for the Samsung > > i9000 Galaxy S ) - so I assume its either a perceived marketing > > negative, or its not worth the 'copy' space the single word would take > > up. > > > > * As a former president of the Australian Software Publishers > > Association, I know that Australians generally 'do' buy their software > > when its not open source - which is the main precursor to acountry > > having a software industry. Its a part of the 'a fair go mate' ethos > > here - so Indy developers are likely to do well here - and do, given > > an avenue to market. > > > > * I do know that there are lots of software developers in Australia > > 'very pissed-off' with Google in that we are unable to 'sell' our > > programs in the Android Market (even though our customers can buy them > > from elsewhere) - e.g. I've had programs sitting here collecting dust > > for 12 months (yes, 365 days, one planetary orbit around the Sun [the > > one thats 93 million miles away] - no actions, and worse, no words > > about actions, from Google) come Tuesday this week see: > http://www.digitalfriend.org/blog/month2009-09.html- but that is > > unlikely to cause a software developer to pirate other software > > developers hard work. I certain haven't and wouldn't. That kama is > > reserved for Google (and then Android), not for fellow software > > developers. i.e. If you are unable to circulate your own work, ones > > enthusiasm eventually dries up and withers on the vine, such that, in > > my case at least, I've abandoned my daily usage of the Android phone > > itself, and now use an alternative smart phone from a company with a > > global perspective instead. > > > > * Its true that, within the list of countries wrt your downloads, > > Canadian, Kiwi and Swiss developers also cannot sell their apps on > > Google Android Market to their own customers - so if it was 'a > > disgruntled developer issue' re Australia, you would likely see it > > there too - but as I've pointed out, your figures for those countries > > are statistically insignificant, so that doesn't constitute evidence > > either way. > > > > * I'm not surprised at your figures for Japan - even major software > > contracts with Japanese companies usually only require a hand-shake to > > seal an honorable relationship. (I wonder if they even have local > > lawyers? ) > > > > * As much as I am surprised at your figures for Australia, I am also > > surprised at your figures for the US. They seem overly high to me. It > > makes me wonder what your software does and how much it costs wrt > > other apps? More so, it makes me wonder if the 'Lite' version is an > > overly crippled version of the 'Pro' version, such that large numbers > > of people are justifying an illegal download of the Pro version. I.e. > > Is the Lite version 'really' useful in its own right - or is it little > > more than 'an ad' that constitutes an expensive download to the > > unwitting customer/phone user? It would also be of general interest to > > know what the respective download numbers for your 'Lite' version are, > > over the same period of time? (Note: I really have no knowledge of > > your app - so these are just very general questions/ponderings by me, > > and are certainly 'not' reflections upon your apps, Lite version or > > Pro)… > > > > If your figures are indeed generally representative of Android apps of > > all sorts, then yes, your experience is indeed a worry for all - and > > it makes a Licensing approach totally necessary for paid apps - sad > > but true, given the low retail cost of phone apps in general. > > > > Cheers > > Steve > > > > On Aug 27, 7:15 am, keyeslabs <keyes...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > Actually, the largest *contributor* to piracy was the US, but the > > > highest piracy rates (as a percentage of total installs) were > > > elsewhere. For example, the US has a piracy rate (on my app) of about > > > 70%, but Australia is more like 92%. For the countries where apps may > > > be purchased, here's the breakdown: > > > > >CountryPurchases Installs Pirated Installs Piracy > Rate > > > Australia 26 321 295 92% > > > Austria 6 13 7 54% > > > Canada 25 96 71 74% > > > France 23 104 81 78% > > > Germany 38 161 123 76% > > > Italy 4 36 32 89% > > > Japan 467 467 0 0% > > > Netherlands 24 98 74 76% > > > New Zealand 4 8 4 50% > > > Spain 7 63 56 89% > > > Switzerland 7 21 14 67% > > > United Kingdom 108 335 227 68% > > > United States 2051 6105 4054 66% > > > > > The US isn't the highest, but still, it's disturbing how high the rate > > > is in ALL of these countries where purchases could be made... > > > > > Dave > > > > > On Aug 26, 4:59 pm, niko20 <nikolatesl...@yahoo.com> wrote: > > > > > > Excellent analysis. Once again showing that you can't make > assumptions > > > > about a market without cold hard data to back it up. Your results > > > > found that the largest piracy rates actually occurred in countries > > > > where users COULD buy apps ! I guess USA is just a bunch of cheap > > > > *sses :) > > > > > > -niko > > > > > > On Aug 26, 3:22 pm, keyeslabs <keyes...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > Recently did an analysis of piracy rates bycountryfor my app. > Found > > > > > some very interesting tidbits that I think may be of interest to > > > > > members of this group: http://bit.ly/bSaoBe > > > > > > > Dave > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google > Groups "Android Developers" group. > To post to this group, send email to email@example.com > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > android-developers+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com<android-developers%2bunsubscr...@googlegroups.com> > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/android-developers?hl=en > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Android Developers" group. 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