I'm not sure but it seems the SDK Manager itself may be keeping it from updating, at least it's the only process I can see in Process Explorer that's got an open handle in that folder. I made a copy of the folder and double-clicked android.bat from there to make it work. It looks like the only thing the update is doing is replacing the old tools folder with the contents from the zip file that's in the temp folder, though. So you might just to need to remove the old tools folder and unzip the new tools archive. Wouldn't bet on it, though :)
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