Oh, I don't think the marketplace is a bad thing at all. I totally
agree that you don't want to be searching through a regular Google web
search for mobile apps as a user. As a developer I agree that it would
be a hassle to maintain an e-commerce site and that's why handango.com
exist. That still leaves us scratching our heads about adoption rates
with the current model (as you ask) and consequently what new model
might work better for developers to make a little dough.
Some thoughts on why the current model doesn't work:
- Have users demonstrated a true need for any of these apps? i.e. do
they do something they can't already do on their phone and which the
*must* do? Games are probably a good exception here.
- Does the problem lie on the developer side, because the best
developers with the best ideas see that there's no money to be made,
so they don't bother creating great apps?
- Is it a platform issue with not enough mobile users in the target
market actually having a device capable of downloading content?
-> That asks the follow-up question, what IS the target market?
- Is it a provider problem, because you might be locked into just
getting stuff from your carrier?
I don't really have any answers, but I'd be happy do discuss this.
Building a sufficient ecosystem around Android is pretty important to
getting users to engage with their devices and to a lesser extent also
adopt the system in the first place (although that's controlled by the
carriers for now.) Giving developers a sustainable model to make apps
is important and $10M contests won't be the way to do it in the
future.
Looking forward to any an all comments.
Tim
On Mar 21, 3:56 pm, "Cary Harper" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> lol, dog pile! I agree that my example was overly simplified and thank you
> for the correction regarding the ad bid system.
>
> Let's tackle the problem from another direction.
>
> Why have adoption rates been low historically for mobile applications?
> Why do you believe users buying directly will work?
> Doesn't that means the developer has to maintain a web site (ecom, secure
> content delivery, site updates, product upgrades, etc.), drive traffic to
> it, and covert traffic to sales? That seams like a lot more work to me.
>
> If I search for "Friend Finder" on Google I have to compete with dating
> services and porn sites for the top spots, in a dedicated mobile app
> marketplace I just have to compete with other Friend Finder applications.
> How is that a bad thing?
>
> On Fri, Mar 21, 2008 at 11:58 AM, TTT <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> > Hi Cary,
>
> > That's a logical calulation, but your assumptions are flawed. I think
> > Google (or anyone else) will charge a lot more than $100 to be at the
> > top of a page with 1 M unique visitors. That's a CPM of $0.0001.
> > Furthermore, Google's model is CPC, so you'd have to bid for clicks.
> > The minimum bids will be at least $0.15 or $0.20 and the winning bids
> > will probably be many times that, because there'll always be suckers
> > that think they can make money by spending money on ads. You'll then
> > need to convert those clicks into app sales. As much as I hope Google
> > will find ways for the developers to make money, your model's
> > economics unfortunately don't work. Google is the only one that makes
> > money in that scenario.
>
> > Again, I don't mean to sound negative about it, but I'm concerned that
> > adoption rates for third-party mobile applications have historically
> > been less than stellar (save for Google Maps maybe) and the only model
> > I see out there is the user buying apps directly. That just doesn't
> > excite me, because it hasn't worked historically and I don't see why
> > Android will be a greater success than Symbian, Windows or Blackberry
> > (which all have developer toolkits).
>
> > Thoughts?
>
> > Tim
>
> > On Mar 21, 2:10 pm, "Cary Harper" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > > If Google provides the market place and assuredly a huge number of users
> > > that no one individual developer could attract, then you have the
> > potential
> > > to market and sell your application. By market, I mean placing ads,
> > running
> > > promotions, doing press releases, attending trade shows, etc, etc.
>
> > > Let's do some math to illustrate the point:
> > > 1) Google provids a web marketplace for developers that draws in 1
> > million
> > > unique visitors a day
> > > 2) You pay Google $100/day to have an ad on the home page of the
> > marketplace
> > > 3) You charge users $10 for your application
> > > 4) If just .001% of those users see your ad and purchase your
> > application,
> > > your gross daily revenue would be $1,000 each day, minus the cost of the
> > ad
> > > ($100/day) and minus any cut that Google takes (say 30%) which makes
> > your
> > > net revenue $690/day = roughly $251,850 a year.
>
> > > Not too bad for one guy writing an application. If its a development
> > shop
> > > then you would need better numbers to make it viable, but the model
> > still
> > > holds.
>
> > > On Fri, Mar 21, 2008 at 10:01 AM, TTT <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> > > > Hi Cary,
>
> > > > Thanks for your reply. The long tail is the fundamental premise
> > > > underlying many internet business models. The prime example and an
> > > > absolute cash machine is Google AdSense. However, while it's a
> > > > worthwhile theory, the long tail only makes sense when you've truly
> > > > found a way to serve the market AND make money doing so. It's obvious
> > > > that developers are serving the long tail with all these apps, but my
> > > > question remains: how do they plan to make money off their efforts?
>
> > > > Even if you market the hell out of an app (and probably spend not only
> > > > time, but $$$ to do so) how do you get a return on your investment?
>
> > > > Best,
>
> > > > Tim
>
> > > > On Mar 21, 12:52 am, "Cary Harper" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > > > > You should read the article, "The Long Tail". (
> > > >http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.10/tail.html)
>
> > > > > The basic concept is that the broader and more numerous the audience
> > > > > becomes, the more diversity that can be supported economically in a
> > > > > marketplace, and the Internet has made this possible. So, as more
> > and
> > > > more
> > > > > Internet enabled devices and platforms get into the hands of the
> > general
> > > > > public, there will arise more and more demand for applications for
> > those
> > > > > devices, which will support a wide diversity of selection.
>
> > > > > So, to apply that to the case of the Android marketplace and
> > application
> > > > > developers. The developer will have to believe that either they
> > have a
> > > > > killer app that will be in the top 2% (unlikely) or that Google's
> > > > partners
> > > > > that have signed up to be apart of the Andriod initiative will have
> > a
> > > > large
> > > > > enough and broad enough audience to provide economic viability in
> > the
> > > > long
> > > > > tail of mobile applications (very likely).
>
> > > > > So, write your application and get to work marketing it because all
> > > > > indications (IMO) are that this space is blowing up and there will
> > be a
> > > > > healthy demand for all kinds of applications.
>
> > > > > Cary
>
> > > > > On Thu, Mar 20, 2008 at 3:24 PM, Dan U. <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> > > > > > I think you might be right about businesses wanting/needing
> > specific
> > > > > > apps. They are willing to pay the money to develop something if
> > they
> > > > > > think their employees or customers will benefit. As for trying to
> > come
> > > > > > up with an idea, build it, market it, and make money off it, I'm
> > quite
> > > > > > a bit more skeptical.
>
> > > > > > On Mar 20, 3:40 pm, "Gene Campbell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > wrote:
> > > > > > > Hi Triple T,
>
> > > > > > > I had the opportunity to build an Android app, but declined as
> > the
> > > > > > project
> > > > > > > owner wanted me to work for free, and have only 40% ownership in
> > > > > > whatever
> > > > > > > became of the project. $0 income + .40 * $0 longterm == $0.
> > Since
> > > > I'm
> > > > > > not
> > > > > > > wealthy, I had to pass. Too much to gamble.
>
> > > > > > > Hell I could steal the idea. It wasn't very novel. The idea
> > wasn't
> > > > > > > patentable. But, still 100% of 0 is 0. And that's how I viewed
> > it.
>
> > > > > > > But, how does this answer your question? Well, since I wasn't
> > going
> > > > to
> > > > > > get
> > > > > > > paid, I had to weigh his idea carefully, and decided if I was a
> > good
> > > > > > > investment = will pay out in the end. I ended up asking myself
> > some
> > > > of
> > > > > > the
> > > > > > > same questions you have. I felt there wasn't enough evidence
> > that
> > > > that
> > > > > > > project could be sold to make much at all. (Sorry, I can't be
> > > > specific
> > > > > > on
> > > > > > > the project.) It would be for a small group of handheld owners
> > for
> > > > a
> > > > > > > specific group of users. It might be really valuable, but it
> > wasn't
> > > > > > "new"
> > > > > > > or innovative. It was just another way to do something the
> > users
> > > > have
> > > > > > done
> > > > > > > all along without a device. So, why would they pay much at all?
> > I
> > > > > > could
> > > > > > > find any reason. Because of maps?
>
> > > > > > > So, I came to the conclusion that only really incredible super
> > apps
> > > > that
> > > > > > hit
> > > > > > > the mainstream would make any money, and you'd probably have to
> > make
> > > > a
> > > > > > deal
> > > > > > > with the handheld company to get it bundled on the device.
>
> > > > > > > I would imagine there might be money building highly specific
> > apps
> > > > for
> > > > > > > businesses. System that meet their business needs perfectly.
> > You
> > > > can
> > > > > > do
> > > > > > > that now with other devices, but perhaps the Android will be the
> > > > best
> > > > > > place
> > > > > > > to do it.
>
> > > > > > > I'm not a marketing guy, just an experienced Dev. I also don't
> > feel
> > > > > > very
> > > > > > > innovative or motivated at the moment to think up a killer app.
> > I'm
> > > > > > keeping
> > > > > > > my eyes and ears open though. Would like to see lots of posts
> > on
> > > > this
> > > > > > > thread.
>
> > > > > > > On 3/21/08, TTT <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> > > > > > > > Hello everyone,
>
> > > > > > > > I'm curious to understand, and this is not meant negatively at
> > > > all,
> > > > > > > > how do developers plan to make money off the apps they're
> > > > creating? I
> > > > > > > > know the typical model for cell phone apps has been to either
> > make
> > > > > > > > them totally free, but those apps are often low quality, or to
> > try
> > > > to
> > > > > > > > sell them through places like handango.com, but I assume
> > adoption
> > > > > > > > rates are quite low as a consequence. (I only have
> > circumstantial
> > > > > > > > evidence on this - does anyone have any data on this by any
> > > > chance?)
>
> > > > > > > > Right now, I don't really see why it would be worth someone's
> > > > while to
> > > > > > > > write apps for Android or for any other mobile platform.
> > Facebook
> > > > apps
> > > > > > > > are a waste of time for most people as very few apps make
> > enough
> > > > money
> > > > > > > > to even get close to compensating for the time spent to write
> > > > them.
> > > > > > > > I'm not aware of any companies making money building gadgets,
> > > > widgets,
> > > > > > > > etc. either.
>
> > > > > > > > What am I missing here? Is there a magic bullet or is it all
> > about
> > > > > > > > hype a la Facebook apps? Don't get me wrong, Android is an
> > > > exciting
> > > > > > > > platform, but I'd like to understand the economics of it a
> > little
> > > > > > > > better.
>
> > > > > > > > Thanks for any and all info!
>
> > > > > > > > Regards,
>
> > > > > > > > TTT
>
> > > > > > > --
> > > > > > > Picante Solutions Limited
>
> ...
>
> read more »
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