These threads make me feel like Al Pacino: "Every time I try to get out, 
they keep pulling me back in"...

Shane Isbell wrote:
> Google is closed

A drop of much of the source code is available in a repository and in 
tarballs. It runs on Linux. It has a free (pre-alpha) SDK. People have 
been able to take it and get it running on a variety of unsupported 
hardware, such as the Nokia N800/N810.

On the open spectrum, today, it is more open than Apple, Microsoft, 
Blackberry, or even Symbian. It is less open today than LiMo and 
OpenMoko. If -- *if* -- they keep their promises, it'll be as open as 
LiMo and OpenMoko by year's end. With luck, Symbian will wind up this 
open as well.

It is definitely more closed -- today -- than it was a few months ago. 
That is definitely worthy of angst and anger, but only to a point.

> Google is not really even a leader anymore, they are following 
> Apple. 

Android is following lots of people: Apple on the sizzle side, 
LiMo/OpenMoko on the free side.

Depending on your belief in the latter two platforms, Android *might* be 
the longer-term leader in free, if it can use the energy from the sizzle 
to be a "playa" bigger than LiMo or OpenMoko. It's even conceivable they 
could wind up the leader in sizzle too -- just because *we* don't see 
progress doesn't mean progress isn't happening.

 > More fragmented market?

That barn door's been open for years. If you're looking for a 
monoculture, try the desktop PC marketplace on for size.

> The carriers get a free operating system built on the hard work 
> of the open-source community. 

If you mean Linux, Android isn't the first or only Linux-based mobile 
phone OS, and it probably won't be the last.

> We already have CDC and CLDC platforms if we want to do Java, with a 
> market that already exists.

Considering that Microsoft doesn't like CDC/CLDC, and Apple doesn't like 
CDC/CLDC, and Android's given no indication of liking CDC/CLDC, and I 
don't see any CDC/CLDC activity with LiMo or OpenMoko, I'm not too 
bullish on CDC/CLDC. But, hey, I've definitely been wrong before.

---------------------

Android is making a series of related mis-steps here, from the private 
SDK releases to the lack of communication. Somebody, somewhere, needs to 
be fired, or worse, needs to let me rip them a new one. If Android 
fizzles, which is entirely possible, this whole mess will be one of the 
bullet points as to why.

And, if Android is able to carve out a significant chunk of the market, 
few will remember this fiasco in four years' time, other than a general 
sense of unease whenever symptoms like we're seeing now happen to pop up.

In this respect, Android is going through some of the same stumbles that 
Netscape did when they "released" Mozilla (big code dump, diddly-squat 
for support), or when Sun released OpenOffice.org (big code dump, 
license soup, mixed messages from management), or IBM did when it 
released Eclipse (big code dump, general sense of "uh, now what?"). 
Those projects went on to be successes, by most measures.

Of course, the same stumbles befell Real Networks with the release of 
Helix (big code dump, godawful license I have the shame of being 
involved with), SAP with the release of SAP DB (big code dump, little 
community building), and so on. There is no way to determine, here and 
now, how this will play out for Android.

The only thing I know for certain is that rehashing the same complaints 
again and again and again won't exactly help Android's cause any. Given 
the press coverage to date, I feel fairly certain that the "we're 
<bleep>ing unhappy" message has made it up the Mountain (View). Maybe 
they'll respond now, maybe they'll stay the course until the ADC wraps 
in three weeks, or until the product ships in a few months.

Zero days, three weeks, three months -- none of it really makes much 
difference. Any, perhaps all, open source communities are marathons, not 
sprints. As for me, I'm just staying limber.

-- 
Mark Murphy (a Commons Guy)
http://commonsware.com
Warescription: All titles, revisions, & ebook formats, just $35/year

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