Visit our website: HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------------------------- > On TFF from September 7, 2001 > http://www.transnational.org > > Please forward this to someone you think would like > to receive the TFF PressInfos. To subscribe/unsubscribe > send a request to <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > T F F P r e s s I n f o 1 2 5 > September 12, 2001 > > WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN MACEDONIA? > By Jan Oberg, TFF director > > NATO WILL NOT LEAVE MACEDONIA > **************************** > > NATO people emphasise that Operation Essential > Harvest in Macedonia is a very limited mission; it will only be in Macedonia > for one month and only to collect 3,300 weapons. It is not monitoring, it is > not peace-keeping and it is not peace-enforcement. And, as we have shown in > PressInfo 125 it is not a disarmament mission. It's a "collect-not-too-many > weapons" mission. > > When NATO's mission approaches its termination, > there is likely to be an intensive media effort to emphasise that the > KLA/NLA kept its promise and handed in 3,300 weapons. It will be heralded by > NATO and the EU as a major step in the direction of peace by that side. > However, following the logic of this whole affair it is a quite reasonable > hypothesis that both parties will spend the time productively to acquire new > weapons. Because: > > a) The Macedonians and the government have no > reason whatsoever to trust that NATO will help it against future KLA/NLA > military activity. Western countries have threatened sanctions > against Macedonia in case it defended itself too strongly and they have > prevented others, e.g. Ukraine, from delivering weapons. They have supplied > KLA/NLA with weapons and trained it since 1993. In addition, Western > agencies and mercenary companies work with them and both in Kosovo and in > Macedonia the international community has sided politically with the > KLA/NLA, no matter that its spin doctors would like us to believe otherwise > . > > b) If 3,300 is all or most of the weapons held by > the Albanian militarists, why should they disarm themselves voluntarily only > to wave good-bye to the only force that they feel could protect them in the > event of continued military activity by Macedonian army and police and even > paramilitaries? Beyond doubt, the government sees it as its right and duty > to get back the 10-15% of the country's territories effectively controlled > by KLA/NLA - one way or another. > > c) Things usually do not go according to plan. The > architects behind the Dayton Agreement talked about one year for IFOR as the > time it would take to solve the major problems of > Bosnia-Hercegovina. In Croatia, there are still enough problems and > animosity to prevent nine-tenths of those chased out since 1991 from > returning. > > A MASSACRE? THE GOVERNMENT SIDE CASTIGATED? > ******************************************* > > As a nuclear alliance, NATO upholds the capability > to kill millions of non-NATO people - that is, if it can be done by > sophisticated long-range technology. Not so when it comes to > peace-keeping and risking the lives of NATO soldiers. Undoubtedly, there are > NATO supporters, as well as good-hearted people in NATO-countries, who hope > everything will go fine in Macedonia and NATO will withdraw on time. > However, that is the least likely scenario of > all. > > Around the time of NATO's stipulated departure, > there could well be a major clash, a massacre � la Racak or the Merkhale > Square or some other kind of major killing and cruelty. Whether staged or > not, it will change the situation fundamentally. However much NATO loathes > risking NATO lives, history's strongest alliance loathes even more to look > like a coward who runs away > when the circumstances get hot. > > One can already see the breaking news headline > which would run something like: "Macedonians/government forces kill recently > disarmed, defenceless Albanians, mostly civilians" - followed by world wide > outrage. Step-by-step creating a situation in which Macedonia will look like > a replica of Serbia under Milosevic is what the West may need to legitimate > a much larger future NATO presence. The terrible event will be done by > actors who see an interest in sucking in and keeping NATO in the country > for, say, 30 months or years, rather than 30 days. > > Perhaps we are already seeing the beginning of this > image-creation. On the front page of the International Herald Tribune of > September 6 we find the headline "Macedonians accused of > excuting Albanians." The story is based on a report by Human Rights Watch > which analyses the terrible events around August 11-12 in Ljuboten just > north of the capital Skopje. The Ministry of the Interior is accused of > having killed 10 Albanian civilians as revenge for the death of 8 Macedonian > soldiers. It also accuses the government side of summary executions of > civilians, arson and torture. > > This is what Human Rights Watch reports; on its > website one finds 17 stories and reports related to Macedonia, only 3 of > which focus on abuses and violence done by the KLA/NLA. Priding itself of > evenhandedness, Human Rights Watch has, from time to time, functioned more > or less as the extended arm of State Department. Its reports and appeals on > the Balkans are pro-NATO, pro-ICTY and pro-NATO in Macedonia. Its coverage > in this region, at least, is an example of how otherwise legitimate human > rights concerns may serve broader, purely political purposes. > > The Commander of Essential Harvest, Danish General > Gunnar Lange, stated (on Danish television August 27) that there is no "Plan > B" and that he has no comment on what to do if > something like this happens. > > Further, it remains to be seen whether KLA/NLA > will simply withdraw from the occupied territories and let Macedonian forces > take over control. From a Macedonian viewpoint that > would be a major precondition for ratifying and implementing the so-called > Peace agreement of Ohrid dated August 13. Why should it accept and implement > a series of major changes in the Constitution and improvements in the status > and rights of Albanians if extremist Albanians occupy parts of the country? > So, the government's defence of Macedonia's territory will be presented as > ruthless military activity and cruelty against virtually unarmed Albanians > and will be condemned by the international "community." NATO will, sooner or > later, see fit to move in with a much larger force, either negotiating its > way in or bombing the government side, somewhat like in the case of Serbia. > This is also the moment when the United States is likely to engage in order > to show - again - who is the real conflict-manager, peace-maker (and bomber) > of the world. > > SIMPLE MISSION CREEP AND NON-IMPLEMENTATION OF THE OHRID AGREEMENT > > *************************************************************** > > This will be particularly likely should a majority > of the Macedonian Assembly not ratify the EU- and NATO mediated Framework > Agreement of August 13. This scenario might develop > somewhat like this: the dissatisfaction with both that Agreement and with > NATO's presence will grow even stronger among Macedonian people and > hard-line politicians. Some NATO soldiers may be harassed and some killed. > The cease-fire agreement might be violated repeatedly. > > On September 6, the Macedonian backed the framework > agreement in principle . The vote passed 91-19, with two abstentions, > following a nearly weeklong process in which many > lawmakers assailed the pact but conceded the consequences of defiance were > too grave. But, the assembly was only asked whether to back the general > concept of the accord: granting wider ethnic Albanian rights in exchange for > rebel disarmament. > > The difficult - and potentially disruptive - > details come next. Lawmakers will now have to decide on the specific > constitutional changes. The package is to be submitted for ratification > later this month, within three days of NATO completing its mission. If these > phases go well, the Agreement is to be implemented on the ground. > > It is not unlikely that the new Albanian National > Army, ANA, will take over most of the hard-line leadership and fight on, > perhaps even attacking NATO troops. The first 5,000 NATO troops will be > reinforced; it will dawn upon NATO's leadership that NATO is caught more or > less in the middle and that its arms collection mandate is too limited given > that the fighting continues and > there is no peace in sight. The United States will not mind at all that > European allies get stuck militarily and the EU shows to the whole world > that its much publicised attempt to create "stability" and its new crisis > management organisation is an utter failure. > > FROM NLA TO ANA, THE ALBANIAN NATIONAL ARMY > **************************************** > > I would expect the political leader of KLA/NLA Mr. > Ali Ahmeti to soon become a politician and probably create a party. He is on > President Bush's list of wanted Albanians and has his family in Germany, so > it is quite convenient to change dress now. Since Ali Ahmeti has struck the > disarmament deal with NATO, KLA/NLA may need an alibi if the war continues. > Transforming into the ANA and, like earlier Balkan fashion shows, changing > uniforms and emblems may be the way out. KLA/NLA would then be able to say > that it had kept its promise. NATO has invested a lot in its deal with Ali > Ahmeti and the KLA/NLA in spite of the fact that NATO-KFOR in Kosovo feels > grossly cheated by KLA there . > > NATO ambassador Pieter Feith who negotiated all the > time with Ahmeti, while S-G Robertson called them "thugs," denied them a > seat at any table and said problems could not be solved by weapons, recently > stated that Ahmeti is not for a division of Macedonia or a Greater Albania > and that he will hand in his weapons because he has achieved his goal which > is to improve Macedonia's democracy, to create a more modern European state. > (Danish Television, August 27, 2001) > > This extraordinary statement reveals how deep the > democratic sentiment is within NATO! NATO gives legitimacy to aggressors and > militarists who fight for human rights with AK-47s and > worse. And, regrettably, human rights organisations endorse this blatant > misuse of the human rights cause by not protesting! > Ahmeti's role model, thus, is probably KLA/UCK founder Hacim Thaci in > Kosovo. Like him, Mr. Ahmeti, after having obtained NATO support, declared > himself a man of peace; he is likely to be protected for years ahead by > countries and agencies of NATO, the EU and the United > States that gave him the weapons with which he so gallantly promoted > democracy and human rights and European values. More about Ahmeti here > > http://www.realitymacedonia.org.mk/web/news_page.asp?nid=344 > > ANA is the new splinter group from KLA/NLA under > former KPC (the "civilian" Kosovo Protection Corps) member Rasmush Haradinaj > who has declared that he accepts neither the > weapons collection not the framework agreement. > > (http://www.realitymacedonia.org.mk/web/news_page.asp?nid=252). He was Agim > Ceku's assistant and sat on the first row when KPC was trained in > conflict-resolution and reconciliation, human rights, humanitarian work and > fire-fighting (I know because I was one of the trainers on > the first theme). > > So, the KLA/NLA we have known may now be for peace > and more or less cease to exist. Its members will change their emblems, > become ANA fighters who - naturally - have no moral or > legal obligations to follow any agreement negotiated when they did not even > exist! > > FIGHTING SPREADS TO WESTERN MACEDONIA > ************************************ > > From the Kumanovo area the war continued to Tetovo. > It is likely to later move on to Gostvar and Debar. NATO's intelligence > sources know that and some of the arms collection points are in exactly > these Western Macedonian areas. The geographical movement of KLA/NLA/ANA > military activity must be seen as indicative of its real motive. If it is > only improved human rights for Albanians in Macedonia, fighting must be > expected to end completely in a few weeks, more or less simultaneously with > the ratification by the government of the Ohrid agreement. > > If, in contrast, war-fighting continues to the > areas mentioned, it is territory rather than human rights that drives the > struggle of KLA/NLA/ANA. If Macedonia is divided in two, it will imply a > huge humanitarian catastrophe, the displacement and switching of hundreds of > thousands of citizens both ways: Albanians toward Western Macedonia, > Macedonians out of this part of the country. > > AN EU MILITARY PRESENCE? > ********************** > > The European Union aims to set up a fully-fledged > intervention force of some 70.000 troops by the year 2003, able to intervene > up to 6000 kilometres from Brussels. The EU would undoubtedly like to show > that it is rapidly becoming a unified foreign policy and military actor. > > One should not exclude, therefore, that the EU > might see it fit to use Macedonia as a test rabbit for a limited EU military > force acting as a "peace"-keeper. This would be a real exercise opening up > also for rehearsals of limited co-ordination between NATO and EU units and > functions. However, if things go sufficiently wrong, young men from EU > countries may come home in body > bags. > > Another complication would be that EU soldiers > might run into American and British citizens operating with KLA/NLA... > > A COMPREHENSIVE UN PRESENCE - RELEVANT BUT UNLIKELY > *********************************************** > > It is obvious that there is also a more relevant > and decent scenario: within a few days, discussion begins about deploying a > comprehensive UN mission to take over after NATO, in co-operation with a > boosted OSCE presence. It would be a re-deployment of a larger UNPREDEP-like > mission supported by a robust peace-keeping and real disarmament component. > > To be effective it would be coupled with a Balkan > conference on real security and defence, negotiations about reduction of > force levels for all in and around Macedonia and a > comprehensive disarmament and confidence-building regime. A major task force > would develop a program for reconciliation, forgiveness, tolerance and the > promotion of peace-oriented media and peace-education in schools and > universities. A Truth and Reconciliation Commission (or process) would > commence at the earliest. > The confidence between various groups in Macedonia that has been undermined > by the violence and international manipulations must - and can - be brought > back to what it was seven months ago. Up till now we have not seen a single > proposal from any international mission or > organisation aimed at healing the minds and the souls of all of the citizens > of Macedonia. We have not seen a single proposal aimed at building peace and > reconciliation from the ground-up, with the people. > > However, such a UN- and NGO-centred approach is > politically completely unlikely. The UN and its Secretary-General has shown > conspicuously little interest in the case of Macedonia. The > US would fight against every UN presence with a military component. And any > mission that would understand Macedonia's conflicts and needs for real peace > much better than the EU and NATO has done so far would be an embarrassment > for-all-to-see. If peace comes to Macedonia in the next few weeks, miracles > do exist! > > Read this analysis on the top together with lots of > other interesting stuff at > http://www.transnational.org/sitemap.html > > � TFF 2001 > Please reprint, copy, archive, quote or re-post > this item, but please retain the source. > > -- > > SO MANY TELL US THAT TFF's... > analyses are important, > views are different, > site is unique, > all-volunteer work is admirable. > They say they want world peace... > > But TFF needs more than your words! > Donate from 2 US$ and upwards > http://www.tff-store-and-donations.org > > Svenska postgiro 4 94 94 84 - 2 > Svenska bank giro 5350-3314 > Norske Postbanken 0805-19 44 446 > Danske GiroBanken 0 87 23 93 > > > _/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/_/__/ > > Dr. JAN OBERG, director TFF > Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research > Vegagatan 25 > S - 224 57 Lund > Sweden > > Phone +46 46 14 59 09 > Fax + 46 46 14 45 12 > Email [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Internet http://www.transnational.org > Public not-for-profit charity 845001-4637 > > _______________________________________________________ ------------------------------------------------- This Discussion List is the follow-up for the old stopnato @listbot.com that has been shut down ==^================================================================ EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9spWA Or send an email To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] This email was sent to: [email protected] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
