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----- Original Message ----- 
From: secr <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Thursday, September 13, 2001 9:45 PM
Subject: [mobilize-globally] Economics of the Attacks


Subject:
        [RBG-Alliance] Fw: [energyresources] Fwd: STRATFOR
Real-Time Analysis: Economics of the Attacks
   Date:
        Thu, 13 Sep 2001 06:55:25 -0700
   From:
        "Mike Morin" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
     To:
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-----Original Message-----
From: Lise Maring <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>;
[EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>;

[EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>;
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Wednesday, September 12, 2001 7:25 PM
Subject: [energyresources] Fwd: STRATFOR Real-Time Analysis:
Economics of
the Attacks


>
>
>
>   11 September 2001
>
>Explosions Cripple American Economy
>
>1940 GMT, 010911
>
>The attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C., targeted

>obvious symbols of American prestige and power: the World
Trade
>Center and the Pentagon. The attackers achieved a crippling
blow
>against America's economic infrastructure as well.
>
>New York City is one of the richest cities on the globe,
>independently raking in more annually than all but the
world's
>most advanced states. In 1998, the city's budget exceeded
that of
>some major countries, including Russia.
>
>But New York is more than just a wealthy city of 8 million
>people. It is the financial capital of the world's largest
>economy. As the significance of what happened in New York
sank in
>across the country, America's smaller exchanges closed down
one
>by one. But it is the New York Stock Exchange that moves
global
>financial events.
>
>Minutes after the attacks, authorities shut down the entire

>island of Manhattan, virtually sealing it off from the rest
of
>the world. The NYSE, located a mere half mile from the
collapsed
>World Trade Center, has suspended operations until further
>notice. That action alone set off secondary tremors in
stock
>exchanges the world over. By 11 a.m. CST, all active, major

>global exchanges were registering sharp losses.
>
>Even with the ongoing global slowdown, America's market
>capitalization is larger than its massive $10 trillion GDP
and
>more than all other financial centers combined. A fair
portion of
>the value of that capitalization is sure to evaporate over
the
>next few days.
>
>The seemingly invincible dollar has lost its footing as
well.
>After regularly gaining against major currencies for the
past few
>years, the dollar dropped 1.8 percent against the euro and
1.5
>percent against the yen. Since most of the world's $1.1
trillion
>in daily foreign exchange trades take place in New York -
and
>those markets are closed - this drop is a mere glimpse of
what is
>to come.
>
>Foreign financial markets are already trembling. The Paris
>exchange immediately plummeted 7.4 percent, the London
exchange
>5.7 percent and the Frankfurt exchange 7 percent. Oil
traders are
>betting that the United States will seek retribution
against a
>Middle Eastern target; that has pushed crude oil prices up
to a
>nine-month high.
>
>The infrastructure that supports high-powered business is
also
>either crippled or locked down. Officials at the Sears
Tower in
>Chicago, keenly aware the tower is the country's tallest
>building, have ordered an evacuation. And the offices in
the 110-
>story World Trade Center were the backbone of many
financial
>powerhouses such as Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, China
>International Trust, Yamatane Securities America and
Farmers
>Union Control Exchange. New York City plays host to more
>multinational corporation headquarters than any other city
in the
>world.
>
>As the financial disaster ripples outward, the insurance
industry
>will be in for a very rough time. For instance, Westfield
America
>Inc. signed a 99-year, $3.2 billion lease on the now
nonexistent
>World Trade Center Building only last month. This is merely
one
>example of the size of the insurance claims that will be
filed in
>coming weeks. Staggering claims could be filed by the
companies
>that were tenants of the World Trade Center. Meanwhile,
liability
>insurance for canceled airline flights will be paid out,
and life
>insurance policies for the uncounted dead also must be
paid.
>
>The direct impact on American companies cannot be estimated
until
>the exchanges reopen, but European insurers are already
rattled.
>An index that follows large European insurance companies
fell
>more than 10 percent within an hour of the World Trade
Center
>collapse. The carnage to come in American markets will be
>harrowing.
>
>Beyond New York, the Federal Aviation Administration has
shut
>down the country's entire commercial air network, canceling
all
>civilian flights. With an average daily capacity of 55,000
>flights, the daily loss to the industry ranks in the
hundreds of
>millions.
>
>Industry confidence is sure to plummet to historic lows.
>Preliminary reports indicated that U.S. military fighters
shot
>down another suspected hijacked passenger plan outside of
>Pittsburgh. Though the report remains unconfirmed, the
chance --
>however remote -- of the government shooting down civilian
>passengers would certainly put a damper on an airline
industry
>only recently recovered from a wave of mergers and price
wars.
>
>Related industries, such as tourism and shipping, will
suffer
>equally. Again, European markets are leading the fall.
British
>Airways and Hilton Group both shed more than one-fifth of
their
>stock value within hours of the attacks.
>
>Life will not return to "normal" soon for the airline
industry.
>More than 2 million passengers travel through U.S. airspace

>daily, but the FAA is often accused of designing security
>regulations more to produce a sense of security than actual

>safety. A complete security overhaul must be conducted
before the
>air routes can be safely reopened. Even a partial fix will
take
>days, if not weeks.
>
>Back in New York, the cordon around the shattered remnants
of the
>World Trade Center -- until this morning the nexus of the
>financial world -- will remain for days as rescue workers
set to
>the grim task of picking through the rubble. The economic
damage
>-- the full extent of which will not be discerned for
months --
>will be equally grim.
>
>_________________________________________________________________

>
>Austin Office
>700 Lavaca, Suite 405
>Austin, TX 78701
>Phone: 512-744-4300
>http://www.stratfor.com/media
>
>Understand the globe, with intelligence.
>
>Copyright 2001, Strategic Forecasting, LLC
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________

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