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AFI Research
Espionage & Security, Strategy & Risk Analysis and Armed Forces Intelligence     
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A quiet word in your ear, Mr President
 
As the Western allies prepare to launch, to use their own words, a war to eradicate the terrorist, it is becoming increasingly clear just what a monumental and difficult task lies ahead. The terrorist group that carried out this utterly senseless mass slaughter is part of a massive international network that has elements within at least 36 countries, and perhaps as many as 60 according to US Government officials.
 
Does the threat to inflict the wrath of the United States upon any country guilty of harbouring terrorists apply to all these countries?  If so then the United States is about to embark on a crusade against a third of the world, including parts of the British Commonwealth. Rhetoric is one thing, but 'bullshit' is something very unwelcome under these highly charged circumstances. Wise heads and wise words are needed or the quite justified wish to respond militarily to this attack will prove counter-productive, merely seen as revenge and the targeting of Islam as a whole for punishment.
 
Osama Bin-Laden, enemy number one to much of the United States, is very definately part of this worldwide terrorist network, but perhaps not as important or as dominating an influence as is often suggested. The new terrorist international is sophisticated, cosmopolitan and fluid, these really are the modern, sharp-suited killers. More likely to be a financial adviser or your dentist, or the nice family with the Jaguar that moved in next door.
 
The United States and Britain are indeed under a grave threat, all the more so because both countries now have a small, but dangerous Islamic 'Fifth Column' and in all probability the attacks on New York and Washington DC were carried out with considerable help from citizens of both the USA and even perhaps Britain.  Canada, Italy, Germany, Malaysia and Indonesia have all been linked to Osama Bin-Ladens operatives, but to have planned and controlled an operation within the United States that involved upto 19 suicidal hijackers and according to FBI sources, upto 50 others, simply cannot have been directed from a cave in the mountains of Afghanistan.
 
The level of communications involved, hundreds of telephone calls or even e-mails, all of which would have been at risk of interception by the NSA-GCHQ's international network of listening bases and spy satellites. While it is even more unlikely that large numbers of terrorists shuttling back and forth for meetings with Bin-Laden or his commanders during the months it took to plan this attack should largely go un-noticed, particularly as many of them were known to the security authorities, is quite incredible. 
 
Either this is the most monumental intelligence and security failure in recent history or the United States is looking for a convenient scapegoat in a country that can't fight back. The Taliban regime is one of the most unpleasant and backward in the world, guilty of massacring ethnic minorities and the subjugation of women, of being stubborn, independent and difficult. However, if this and the fact that they chose to give shelter to Osama Bin-Laden and refuse to give him up before a case has been proved against him is sufficient reason to destroy what's left of this benighted country, then so be it.
 
That this action risks turning Osama Bin-Laden into a martyr, a cause that might eventually bring together hundreds of millions of Islamic militant's in a prolonged and bloody holy war against everything and anything Western will just be a by-product of a hasty, ill-thought out, but understandable wish for revenge.  The deaths of so many innocent civilians simply cannot go unanswered, but has the United States been asking the right questions and in the right places?
 
The terrorist threat to democracy is growing and our way of life is under  increasing pressure at every turn, but the destruction of Osama Bin-Laden will not remove that threat, nor will it remove the compelling reasons that persuade men & mere boys to commit suicide whether with explosives strapped to their bodies in a Jerusalem street or piloting a hijacked airliner into the World Trade Centre.
 
Military action is called for, but so is social justice, that is if you really want to try to rid the world of the awful scourge of terrorism once and for all.
 
 
Intelligence Reports available from AFI Research 
No-51, US Military Options-Afghanistan, is now available.
No-52, The Terrorist International, will be ready next week, 
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