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http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=31&si=512360&issue_id=5269&printer=1

Expert warns of 'nightmare' nuclear scenario in Pakistan
Thursday September 20th 2001

  A LEADING authority on Pakistan's nuclear programme  has given
warning of a "nightmare scenario" in which a  destabilised Pakistan
lost control of its nuclear weapons to  supporters of the Taliban.

  Any military action against Muslim terrorists within  Afghanistan
will have to take account of that, said George  Perkovich, a nuclear
weapons expert at the W Alton Jones  Foundation in Charlottesville,
Virginia, who has specialised  in the nuclear arms race between India
and Pakistan.

  He dismissed any prospect that the present Government of  Pakistan
would use its nuclear armoury, but said that questions about the
security of the weapons should be high on the agenda of the military
planners
  
  "My guess would be that the US and the UK are thinking  about that
now," Mr Perkovich said. "If things go wrong,  what do we do? Do we
send commandos in to get the weapons and take them out in helicopters,
like the last days  in Saigon? Has this even been discussed with the 
Pakistanis?

  Militarily, Pakistan's nuclear weapons are its "crown jewels," but
valuable as they may be for asserting national pride in the rivalry
with India, they are of little use in the  awkward diplomatic situation
the Pakistani Government now faces.

  Mr Perkovich said that Pakistan has about two to three  dozen
potential nuclear weapons, all based on enriched  uranium. 

  Tests carried out in 1998 demonstrated that they work. Pakistan also
has medium-range missiles capable of  reaching targets in India, if no
farther afield

  "In normal times, they keep the warheads separate from the 
missiles," he said, "and the fissile uranium -- the core of the weapon
-- is not kept in the warhead, which consists of electronics and high
explosives, but doesn't have the fissile core in it. It's all dressed
up and nowhere to go."

  Assuming this is still true, it would make it much harder for those
unfamiliar with the system to assemble the weapon and make it work.

  In addition to having the weapons disassembled and safely stored, he
said that the Pakistanis will have given thought to  how they would be
evacuated in an emergency.

  "The most worrisome thing is the fissile core. That's easily 
moveable, which is both good and bad. It's bad because  Saddam Hussein
could make a bid for it, good because it means it could be put on a
helicopter and taken out of harm's way." 

_______________________________
(c) 2001, The Irish Independent
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/ & http://www.unison.ie/

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