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How will terrorism be fought ?
Paris (A.I.G.I.S), by Charles P. RAULT [EMAIL PROTECTED]
After the bloody attacks which upset the history of the United States and the Occidental world a few days ago, it is advisable from now on to wonder about the way in which the states threatened by islamic terrorism can eradicate this terror.
This terror results from a will of groups organized well to serve the ends of a religious fanaticism without limits. Whereas many thought that the United States would be safe from any attack of scale of behalf of the terrorists, the whole world learned with fright onSeptember 11 2001 that nobody, even not the Pentagon, is invulnerable. Vis_a_vis this deadly act, a response must quickly be implemented in order to avoid all new bloodshed on innocent territories. Consequently, instead of being delayed on the faults made by the services of Intelligence of the American ally, would owe us, all together, us to concert in the most serious way in order to choose a collective response which would not leave any chance to the terrorist adversary. However, it appears essential to define well the defense's means of the Occident.
Indeed, Bush Jr and its team seem to wish a decisive response and without chance for that which will undergo it. Whereas the culprit of the attacks of New York, the Pentagon and Pennsylvania, is already clearly designated; the response appears already committed. Even if a "reserve" must frame this " punishment ", the culprit nomination is fast and the difficulty of the military response of the western world is well to define which must severly be punished. Indeed, the nationalities represented in these acts terrific are numerous. One can, according to sources' of the FBI and the French intelligence services, to find people of sudanese, afghanese or omanese nationalities and others. This implies that apart from Afghanistan, other countries are suitable for shelter various terrorist groups and to ensure protection then of it. Consequently, striking them NATO will have to be very powerful and on large scale or very localised.
But before approaching the complex choice of the means of action, it is important to understand that if one follows the remarks of the President of the United States, terrorism must be fought everywhere, towards and counters all. However, the United States does not seem (for the moment) to take for target of the states which however shelter terrorist dangerous groups and in particular being able to belong to the " world company of terrorism " of the most wanted man of planet: Usama Bin Laden. This leads to a difficult conclusion and prone to hesitations. Indeed, if NATO tackles terrorism as a whole, the Middle East as certain zones of Eastern-Asia will be upset. Thus, the strategic configuration of the world such as we know it today will be transformed and NATO will have to assume the vicissitudes of a new strategic era. Some specialists in the Pentagon thus seem to recommend a massive attack on Afghanistan in order to eradicate what they regard as the refuge of international islamist and anti_Westerner terrorism.
If this method of military action is accepted, then the missions of espionage, of physical elimination as well as the missions "commando" will be selected. Expensive, these discrete missions will perhaps not give satisfaction to the appetite of revenge on the Westerners and would thus weaken the political weight of the current leaders in interior policy. Then, these missions can cause losses of extremely qualified elements for a less result on the ground. One can remember incapacity of the Soviet forces to overcome the resistant Afghans. Each one can thus consider that the mission of NATO against terrorism will constitute an attack in three phases.
First phase, an action of great width shows in the world the military power of Western nations and erases the temporary humiliation undergone by the American nation. Impressive armed forces would unload in Afghanistan in order to eliminate any terrorist element and would show crushing it military power of projection of western armies. Forces stationed in Pakistan would be used as a basis for a great offensive and would give to the United States the opportunity to catch terrorists hidden in Islamabad. But it is immediately necessary to avoid the comparison of a possible invasion of Afghanistan with the war against Iraq in 1991. Indeed, Afghanistan is in war since more than one quarter century and its inhabitants seem trained with many methods of combat. Topography and the relief are true traps for the mobile troops and the climate is very constraining. The ignorance of the ground vis_a_vis enemy troops knowing perfectly this one constitutes also an element of weight to be weighed before launching out in unspecified terrestrial offensive. Moreover, the caused costs will be enormous and if this anti_terrorist war is prolonged, the world economy could undergo serious consequences of them. Lastly, the number of victims following the conflict can be very high and it is badly seen how the United States could escape so that one called during the 1980's " the Soviet vietnam ".
Second phase, during and after the spectacular offensive which will draw the attention of the whole world, of the special forces involved extremely well trained will lead operations commandos in enemy ground for the physical elimination of the most dangerous elements. Beyond Afghanistan, these missions will be also projected in countries which can lodge terrorist networks threatening as certain countries of the Middle East with which the Occident does not want to engage of conflict being given the economic interests (in particular oil and energy) concerned. For a few days already, SAS troops and Navy Seals have been suspected of having taken military actions in Afghanistan or at the pakistano_Afghan border. France promised its support for the United States in its fight against terrorism, one can thus expect an intervention of units of the C.O.S (Command of Special Operations). These discrete and " surgical " missions can at the same time make it possible to be informed on the terrorist hearths and their potential like eliminating calmly but surely the leaders and activists from these "shelters of terrorism ". This military option for the moment is preferred by Europeans for it being cheaper and especially makes it possible " to do the housework without breathing dust "... However, the missions of this kind do not certainly make it possible to stop the deadly and fanatic madness of the terrorists.
Third phase, before, during and after the offensive, the Western countries will undertake new actions inside their borders for eradicate the terrorist subversion which would have already settled in the heart of Western nations. This also called upon missions of intelligence and an extreme prudence. Indeed, an offensive in the " terrorist " countries will cause doubtless new waves of attacks which it will be a question of even stopping to prevent. Harsh Mission but necessary not to give to terrorism all the opportunity to develop quietly for an action even more terrible being able to include the use of strategic weapons and massive destruction. An authentic co_operation between the western intelligence services will have to develop and update the concepts of fighting anti_terrorist inside and outside the free world. This will allow more sincere relations between allied but especially the installation of an interdependent system of safety, thus guaranteeing the engagement of all so only one of the allies is prone to external aggressions. Even if NATO allows this possibility, this does not guarantee it.
Many diplomats prevent risk which a massive response with the terrorist attacks can generate. However, it is possible that such a response to the terrorist acts starts a generalized terrorist offensive causing many civil casualties. However, being given thefanatic aspect given to this terrorism which threatens us, certain specialists in anti_terrorism insist on the fact that even if NATO moderates its response, this will not soften in no case the actions perpetrated by the terrorist networks. Consequently, better is worth to fight and die than to die without ever to have fought.
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