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Krasnaya Zvezda
September 18, 2001
FIRST WAR OF THE 21ST CENTURY
The United States is not ready to fight internationl terrorism The US
government is drawing the wrong conclusions from this tragedy
Author: Yuri Pankov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
RELYING ON ITS NATO ALLIES, THE UNITED STATES HOPES TO BE ABLE TO
DEFEAT TERRORISM ALL ON ITS OWN. LIKEWISE, IT HOPES TO CREATE A WORLD
TO SUIT ITSELF. WASHINGTON STILL HOPES TO BE ABLE TO TAME TERRORISTS
AND USE THEM IN FUTURE AGAINST ITS REAL OR IMAGINED ENEMIES.
Several years ago, analysts began to note an increase in the
numbers of terrorist groups, their size, development of military
power, and more extensive contacts between them. These assumptions
were subsequently confirmed when Arab instructors were found to be
working with guerrilla detachments in Chechnya, and Chechen
mercenaries in Kosovo; when the flows of money circulating in the
world of international terrorism were uncovered.
Washington and some Western capitals apparently drew inadequate
conclusions at the time, resolving to use the factor of terrorism to
promote their own goals. First Kosovo and then Macedonia were chosen
for implementation of the Western theory of "controlled terrorism".
Terrorists received moral and material support in both cases. Albanian
terrorist organizations in Yugoslavia even coordinated their actions
with NATO aviation.
Russia found itself under unprecedented pressure because of the
counter-terrorist operation in Chechnya. Emissaries of Chechen
guerrillas were received in Washington and European capitals, while
Moscow was threatened with international sanctions. The West was even
suspected of manipulating the Taliban in order to undermine what
stability there was on the southern borders of Russia and the CIS.
It soon became clear that there could be no such thing as
"controlled terrorism". As soon as terrorists spread their wings, they
turn against their former patrons. It happened in Kosovo, and
something similar is now happening in Macedonia. What happened in the
United States last week is best described by the relatively new term
"terrorist attack". Some analysts don't rule out the possibility that
the terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington are just the
start of a bona fide terrorist war against the United States.
The US Administration is also talking about a "war" nowadays.
However, judging by Washington's intention to use bombs against
terrorists, it appears that the United States doesn't understand what
kind of war this is going to be. Analysts, including American
analysts, say traditional weapons and methods typical of conflicts of
another generation cannot be effective against large-scale terrorism.
"All too frequently, criminal infrastructures cannot be destroyed
by our high-precision weapons systems," said General Wayne A. Downing
of the US special forces, long before the events of September 11. "As
a rule, these gangs don't have fixed locations and the criminals live
in densely-populated areas under the guise of ordinary citizens. It is
there that they hide weapons and ammunition. The use of high-precision
weapons systems will only result in numerous civilian casualties,
while the criminals will not be affected." Downing was referring to
Israel. Short of personnel, Israel could not maintain effective
control over the security zone in southern Lebanon, from which
Hezbollah was launching missiles. In desperation, Israel opted to try
high-precision weapons systems. The results are well known: numerous
casualties among noncombatants and condemnation of Israel by the
international community. The terrorists received further confirmation
of their own immunity.
If the United States now follows suit, the international support
it presently has will soon fade. Much will be recalled: Hiroshima and
Nagasaki, Vietnam, Iraq, Yugoslavia... The air strikes against
Yugoslavia showed that civilians die under such attacks, while regular
troops even retain their military hardware, virtually untouched. Small
gangs and bases in Afghanistan would be even more difficult targets...
On the other hand, in declaring war on international terrorism,
the United States should be prepared to effectively defend its own
territory. Specially-trained armed forces are needed to do so. In the
United States, this is the job of the National Guard. It is uncertain
as yet whether the National Guard will be adequate against large armed
formations, or whether it can be relied on to maintain security for
the nation and strategic sites. Particularly problematic is the
security of American companies and embassies in other regions of the
world, and the security of Washington's NATO allies in Europe.
War against terrorism on the global scale is primarily about
politics. This is what Washington needs to think about seriously - the
Washington which nurtured plans for global dominance and made advances
to terrorists. It is important for the United States to understand
that simply increasing military might and attempting to bully the rest
of the world into submission (including the countries it disdainfully
calls rogue states) is no solution. Experience shows that terrorism
knows no borders, it doesn't fear brute force, and it expands rapidly
under favorable circumstances. And conditions will be favorable - in
the form of anti-American sentiments - if there are strikes against
Afghanistan and some other Arab nations.
But there is a simple and easy way forward for Washington. The
United States should return to the international community as a fully-
fledged member, and join other countries in looking for ways of
countering international terrorism. However, this would mean
abandoning some US goals. First and foremost, it would have to abandon
its strategy of a mono-polar world under US dominance.
The latest reports from Washington indicate that different
conclusions are being drawn there. Relying on its NATO allies, the
United States hopes to be able to defeat terrorism all on its own.
Likewise, it hopes to create a world to suit itself. Washington still
hopes to be able to tame terrorists and use them in future against its
real or imagined enemies.
Moreover, the United States would not mind gaining some political
dividends from the tragedy. Contrary to all logic, Washington is
presenting the hijacked airliners as another pretext for a missile
shield, one which would end strategic parity.
Washington has also found another pretext for the existence (and
enlargement?) of NATO. For the first time ever, the Americans intend
to invoke Article 5 of the NATO founding charter: which stipulates
joint defense if any NATO member is attacked. It doesn't matter to
Washington that this document was written under entirely different
circumstances, and meant to apply to entirely different situations.
Even the Americans themselves don't know whom NATO members are going
to fight.
And yet, Washington is clutching at the tragedy as a precedent,
probably in order to be able to direct subsequent developments
according to the same old script. Instead of humanitarian disasters,
as in Kosovo, terrorist attacks may now be used as an excuse for armed
aggression.
Apparently, the United States is still preparing itself for wars
for global dominance. It is not yet prepared to challenge
international terrorism, not even morally prepared. We can only hope
that President Bush's European colleagues will share some of their
experience with him - if Washington is prepared to listen, that is.
Unfortunately, not everyone is prepared to learn from the mistakes of
others.
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