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strana.ru September 19, 2001 Bombing Afghanistan will not solve the problem Exclusive interview with Pavel Kendel, an ethnic conflicts expert at the Europe Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences By Viktor Sokolov Q. You are an expert on Yugoslavia, where attempts have already been made to solve a problem by bombing, and now they are going to bomb Afghanistan. Do Americans stand a chance to attain a result wanted by them and the rest of the world in this way? A. Afghanistan and Yugoslavia are absolutely different countries geographically and economically. From the point of view of those who plan bombing operations, the goal is to destroy infrastructure facilities and cause damage to military capability. But what was effective, or relatively effective, in Yugoslavia, makes absolutely no sense in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has no infrastructure. There is nothing but mountains in that backward and divided country. And its military capability is fairly limited - the military strength of the groups opposed to each other in Afghanistan consists of manpower and small arms. There are very few airplanes in that country, and armored vehicles are not numerous either. So, it is not clear what is to be destroyed by bombing. The caves where terrorists are hiding? Q. But, they say, the caves are so deep and ramified, that bombs are unlikely to reach them there. A. That is true. It is very doubtful that bombing will be effective. It will be good perhaps for quieting public opinion. Just a PR action. As regards real actions against the terrorists, they will develop parallel to that and by other methods to be used by a special-task force. Q. I see. So, it means that it would be better to move ground troops there and conduct an army operation. A. No, the point is that an operation conducted by special-task units and an army operation are quite different things. I think Americans definitely are not going to conduct just an army operation. Q. And will they do this by using a special-task force? A. Most certainly. Because there is no other way of seizing or destroying Osama bin Laden and his supporters. Q. And if special-task units enter Afghanistan and begin to act there, will this encourage the Northern Alliance to advance to the south? A. Absolutely. I think these actions will be coordinated by the Northern Alliance, and most probably aid will be extended. Q. And refugees that are moving to the CIS countries? How does Russia feel about it? A. Understandably, Russia is not happy about it, but Tajikistan, Kyrghyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenia like it still less. Precisely this explains a pretty cautious position of the Russian leadership as regards a prospect of joining this operation. The Americans will finish their bombing and go, but we shall stay. Q. Quite right. Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov is going to discuss this evidently with George Bush in New York. And there is information that Ivanov has already said, evidently referring to President Putin, that the CIS and all countries for that matter are free in their choice, and each country will chose the way if finds most appropriate. A. Well, it is just a statement of the present reality. But in fact, it is really so - each country decides what it should do. Q. You don't think it is a diplomatic statement? As a matter of fact, the secretary of Russia's Security Council has gone to the south and is conducting talks there. A. I think he has gone mainly to find out how those countries will respond to such proposals. ------------------------------------------------- This Discussion List is the follow-up for the old stopnato @listbot.com that has been shut down ==^================================================================ EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9spWA Or send an email To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] This email was sent to: [email protected] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
