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Thursday, Nov. 29, 2001. Page 9 

Putin Serious About NATO

By Pavel Felgenhauer  To Our Readers 

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When President Vladimir Putin visited the United States this month, he
announced that "Russia will have as close a relationship with NATO, as
the alliance is ready to have with us." Russian diplomatic sources say
that during the summit with U.S. President George W. Bush, Putin not
only made this far- reaching statement, but also complained that NATO
Secretary General George Robertson is meeting Moscow's overtures with
entirely empty declarations.

As Moscow moves closer to the West, there is a growing desire in some
NATO capitals to reward Putin and support his pro-Western policies.
Therefore, Moscow's complaints about NATO's intransigence were taken
very seriously.

Officials in Washington and London suddenly understood that the Joint
Permanent Russia-NATO Council known as "19+1" is in fact "19 against 1."
NATO nations first establish a consolidated position on all issues and
then collide with Russia, which is not allowed to take part in
preliminary consultations.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair sent Robertson and all NATO nations a
letter spelling out a proposal to create a new Russia-North Atlantic
Council that would meet every two weeks or even more frequently. On a
number of issues (yet to be defined), Russia would be invited to take
part in NATO consensus-building discussions before a final decision is
made. This would make Russia a NATO member nation in all but name and
give it an effective veto on some issues.

If Blair's formula of engaging Russia with NATO is approved, and the
bond between Moscow and the West continues to strengthen, the number of
NATO issues Moscow is allowed to decide may also grow. In the
not-too-distant future, Russian accession to the alliance may become no
more than a formality.

Last week, as Robertson visited Moscow to clarify the details of closer
cooperation, Putin announced that "Russia is not standing in line to
join NATO." This was interpreted as postponing for the time being the
immediate prospect of NATO expanding to Kamchatka. A great sigh of
relief could be heard in many NATO capitals, above all in Warsaw.
Military and nationalistic circles in Moscow that are against closer
relations with the West were also somewhat relieved.

However, Kremlin and Russian diplomatic sources involved in negotiations
with NATO interpret Putin's words differently: Russia wants to be in
NATO as quickly as possible, but does not want to stand in line together
with smaller former Communist nations. As a nuclear power occupying a
large part of Eurasia, Russia believes it is a special case and should
be treated differently from, say, Estonia. Moscow also wants to receive
a special invitation from NATO before it makes a formal request to join
so as not to be embarrassed by a rebuff.

Putin recently said, "it's also in our best interest to integrate Russia
into the contemporary international community in every sense of the
word, in defense, politically, and in security." Kremlin sources insist
that Putin is serious, while diplomats believe they can take Moscow into
NATO and also get full Article 5 guarantees that other members will help
protect Russia's long, vulnerable Siberian borders against Chinese or
Islamic threats from the east and south.

The current war against terrorism gave Moscow an opportunity to forge
closer ties with the West despite Russia's weakness, its brutal and
unsuccessful war in Chechnya, its undemocratic practices and its
unreformed military. In Moscow many believe that in the coming years
relations between China and the United States may reach boiling point
over Taiwan, giving Russia another excellent opportunity to integrate
fully with the West and enter NATO.

Last week, I visited Warsaw and NATO's Brussels headquarters. Polish
officials who believed they had built a permanent firewall separating
them from Russia by joining NATO are furious and are openly challenging
Blair's initiative. 

Russian diplomats in NATO, for their part, confirmed that Admiral
Valentin Kuznetsov has been selected to become the new head of the
Russian military mission to NATO. Kuznetsov is one of Russia's best
military diplomats, has a good command of English and has made a career
in arms control talks with Washington. Before Kuznetsov, Moscow
appointed to NATO army generals who did not speak much English and were
trained to lead tank assaults over the Rhine. Today, the time to
negotiate in earnest has finally come and Moscow seems to be ready.


Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2001/11/29/009.html
 

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