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http://frontierpost.com.pk/editorials.asp?id=2&date1=1/11/2002

[When friends fall out. The following reflects
Islambad's opinion rather than my own, but is
insightful in many ways nevertheless.]



The Frontier Post (Pakistan)
January 11, 2002

Americans to stay?

Soothsayers are proving terribly right. 

They had said the Americans were coming to Afghanistan
to stay. 

They had the experiences of Bosnia, Kosovo and the
Gulf War in mind. 

The Americans are continuing their military presence
in Bosnia and Kosovo despite the crises that prompted
it having long dissipated. 

And even as the Gulf War that drew their military
intervention ended more than a decade ago, they keep
holding on to their bases in Saudi Arabia, citing an
untenable Iraqi threat to its neighbouring Arab
states. 

The soothsayers were saying once the Americans land at
a place, they squat there and keep spreading
themselves by constantly shifting the goalposts.This
now seems about to happen in this region. 

As the Americans are inflicting finishing strokes on
the Taliban and Al-Qaeda apparatus in Afghanistan,
credible reports have begun appearing in the media
that they are planning a long-term presence in the
region. 

They are reportedly building an airbase in Kyrghyzstan
to accommodate up to 3,000 troops, warplanes and
support aircraft, and upgrading bases in Uzbekistan
and Pakistan where their forces are stationed. 

Inside Afghanistan, the recent reinforcement of the
1,500 marines by the 101st Airborne Division�s troops
at Kandahar airport is also being viewed as a pointer
to a long US presence there, as such regular army
troops are deployed to hold territories for months, if
not years. 

This American presence in and around Afghanistan is
being promoted on the pretext that Afghanistan�s
interim government needs help to maintain security and
root out remnants of the Al-Qaeda and Taliban forces. 

No doubt, Hamid Karzai�s is a wobbly administration,
badly hamstrung in imposing its control over governors
and warlords. 

This explains the Kandahar governor�s refusal to hand
over to Washington the three senior Taliban ministers
who surrendered to him and whom he has released under
his general amnesty for the Afghan Taliban. 

But none of these things can become a valid
justification for any long-term presence. 

The real US motives are easily discernible. 

These are to establish a strong presence in this
strategically important region, rich in oil and gas
resources, for promoting its strategic, political and
commercial interests. 

For these very reasons, this American move has all the
potential to throw the region into intense major
powers� rivalry and embroil it in painful frictions,
tensions and conflicts. 

Iran, Russia and China in particular would not brook
any such US presence in their neighbourhood. 

The Russians have already come out strongly against
it. 

This American presence would also potentially hurt
badly the as-yet fragile international anti-terrorism
coalition, and may even spell its demise. 

The Americans should not be oblivious either of the
public anger their presence could touch off, leading
to germination of terrorist propensities among
fanatical elements. 

After all, rabid extremist outfits like Al-Qaeda drew
their sustenance largely from the Arab public anger at
the continued US military presence in Saudi Arabia. 

It is for the Americans to ponder over the negative
impact their military presence could have on them. 

As for us, we cannot afford to reap their
ill-considered move�s bad harvest. 

We have burnt our fingers once by hosting their
military presence in the 1960s. 

That incurred us Soviet anger. 

But the Americans returned the compliment by
abandoning us when India invaded us in 1965. 

For their betrayals in our most critical times,
despite our pandering to their wishes blindly in their
hour of need, they have left our people completely
disillusioned with them, a sense now being sharpened
phenomenally due to their tilt towards India which is
poised to thrust war on us. 

The government should remain cognizant of this public
mood. 

In no event should it allow a long-term American
presence on our soil that could also incur us the
displeasure of our tested friends like China. 




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