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Rethink the unthinkable
The idea of waging nuclear war is taking flight in
Washington. Canada must protest, says DOUGLAS ROCHE,
former chair of the UN Disarmament Committee
The Globe And Mail (Canada)
By DOUGLAS ROCHE
Tuesday, March 12, 2002 � Page A19
Nuclear weapons are back on the front pages, with news
of a Bush administration policy document, the U.S.
Nuclear Posture Review, which projects the role of
nuclear weapons into the future -- not as deterrents,
but for the purpose of waging wars. The document even
names potential targets. This document and the
thinking behind it are reckless. They not only
jeopardize international law but the support of
America's closest allies. Canada must state its
opposition immediately.
The document also breaks a commitment. In 2000, the
United States joined the other nuclear-weapons states
in making an "unequivocal undertaking to accomplish
the total elimination" of their nuclear arsenals. The
United States made this commitment at a review
conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which,
with 187 nations involved, is the world's largest
arms-control and disarmament treaty.
There are still 31,000 nuclear weapons in the world,
most of them American or Russian, with lesser amounts
held by the United Kingdom, France and China, India,
Pakistan and Israel. At least 5,000 of the U.S. and
Russian nuclear weapons are maintained on hair-trigger
alert, meaning they could be fired on 15 minutes
notice.
The Bush administration has offered cuts in the
nuclear weapons the United States deploys, but is
reinforcing its maintenance of core stocks and
planning the development of new ones. By rejecting the
Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, it is holding
open the door to resumed nuclear testing. This has
greatly worried many non-nuclear weapons countries and
has already led to charges that the United States is
acting in bad faith. The Non-Proliferation Treaty
insists that negotiations for elimination should be
held in "good faith."
Periodically, the United States reviews its policies
on nuclear weapons; it did so last year, the results
of which are seen in this week's alarming headlines.
"Behind the administration's rhetorical mask of
post-Cold War restraint," comments the U.S. National
Resources Defence Council, a prestigious non-profit
organization of scientists, lawyers and environmental
specialists, "lie expansive plans to revitalize U.S.
nuclear forces, and all the elements that support
them, within a so-called 'New Triad' of capabilities
that combine nuclear and conventional offensive
strikes with missile defences and nuclear-weapons
infrastructure."
According to the council's analysis, the Bush team
assumes that nuclear weapons will be part of U.S.
military forces at least for the next 50 years; it
plans an extensive and expensive series of programs to
modernize the existing force, including a new ICBM to
be operational in 2020 and a new heavy bomber in 2040.
The administration's Nuclear Posture Review says that
there are four reasons to possess nuclear weapons: to
"assure allies and friends"; "dissuade competitors";
"deter aggressors"; and "defeat enemies." Over the
next 10 years, the White House's plans call for the
United States to retain a total stockpile of intact
nuclear weapons and weapons components roughly seven
to nine times larger than the publicly-stated goal of
1,700 to 2,200 "operationally deployed weapons."
Moreover, the U.S. administration has ordered the
Pentagon to draft contingency plans for the use of
nuclear weapons against at least seven countries,
naming not only the "axis of evil" (Iraq, Iran and
North Korea) but also Russia, China, Libya and Syria.
This position has prompted the editors of the Bulletin
of the Atomic Scientists to move the minute hand of
their "Doomsday Clock" forward two minutes -- to seven
minutes to midnight, the same position as when the
clock made its debut in 1947. "Despite a campaign
promise to rethink nuclear policy, the Bush
administration has taken no significant steps to alter
nuclear targeting policies or reduce the alert status
of U.S. nuclear forces," said George A. Lopez,
chairman of the Bulletin's board of directors.
The shift in U.S. policy has immense implications for
Canada and the other members of NATO. NATO has
traditionally presented its nuclear doctrine as one of
deterrence, not war. Canada is now caught in the
middle, between its international legal obligations to
support negotiations for the elimination of nuclear
weapons, or to support the United States in its
determination to keep them. All this will come to a
head at an important Non-Proliferation Treaty meeting
at the United Nations, starting April 8.
Canada has higher obligations to international law, as
it is being developed in the United Nations system,
than it does to its friendship with the United States,
which is violating the very law that Canada stands
for. Good friends don't let their friends drive drunk.
It's time for Canada to blow the whistle on its U.S.
friends in Washington, who are veering out of control
in their pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Because of its military strength and commanding
position as the world's lone superpower, the United
States occupies the central position when it comes to
making progress on nuclear disarmament. NATO's stance
-- that nuclear weapons remain "essential" -- would
fold in an instant if the United States took action in
entering comprehensive negotiations for elimination.
Russia and China, struggling to move their economies
into strong positions, do not want to engage in a new
nuclear arms race, which is precisely what they fear
will happen if and when the United States actually
deploys a National Missile Defence system.
Most people do not realize that the United States
spends $100-million (U.S.) a day maintaining its
nuclear weapons. Because Washington is pouring huge
new sums into its defence budget -- it will soon be
spending, at $400-billion annually, more than the next
15 countries combined -- the international community
has become rightfully alarmed about U.S. intentions.
Nor is the rest of the world reassured when we see the
Pentagon's Web site proclaiming the U.S. intention to
weaponize space and thus ensure "full-spectrum
dominance" on land, sea, air and space.
Douglas Roche is an independent senator from Alberta
and Canada's former ambassador for disarmament. He is
a former chairman of the UN Disarmament Committee.
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