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http://www.dawn.com/2002/03/13/op.htm

DAWN (Pakistan)
March 13, 2002

America's next war may be deadlier
By Mahir Ali


Six months from now, by the time the first anniversary
of the demise of the World Trade Centre towers rolls
around, the United States is likely to be embroiled in
another war. That war will have nothing whatsoever to
do with the outrage perpetrated on September 11 last
year. It will be even dirtier and deadlier than the
war in Afghanistan, And it will be unprovoked. 

The rhetoric emanating of late from the White House in
Washington and its branch office at No 10 Downing
Street in London suggests that an assault against Iraq
is all but inevitable. Even the somewhat lame excuse
that will be invoked as justification is known in
advance. Emerging from his warren for a diplomatic
foray, US vice-president Dick Cheney will this month
be seeking support in the Middle East for his nation's
naked aggression. Next month Tony Blair will undertake
yet another journey of obeisance, to be briefed by
George W. Bush on the Pentagon's plans. 

Apparently, one of the reasons why the Iraqi chapter
of the so-called war against terror cannot commence
earlier than September is because stockpiles of the
crucial 1000-pound "smart bombs" have been depleted as
a result of the Afghan conflict and cannot be
replenished before then. 

This means that the US munitions plants will be
working overtime to produce weapons of mass
destruction, so that Saddam Hussein can be suitably
punished for allegedly seeking to do the same. That
would make an ideal theme for the theatre of the
absurd. As would the fact that the Land of the Brave
also does not wish to expose its troops to the heat of
the Arabian summer - Iraq will, in other words, be too
hot to handle before autumn. Unlike Afghanistan, where
until recently the US has been reticent about
committing troops on the ground, up to 200,000
soldiers may participate in the race towards Baghdad. 

And what has Saddam done lately to deserve such
special treatment? Well, we are told he has been a
very naughty boy: he has been playing with dangerous
toys once more. Doesn't he realize that only Uncle Sam
and his friends are allowed the privilege of handling
nuclear and chemical weapons? Why, his backroom chums
have even been converting trucks into missile
launchers. They must be rewarded for their ingenuity
by being blown to kingdom come. 

Is there any evidence, irrefutable or otherwise, that
Iraq is on the verge of acquiring nuclear technology,
or that it has built up stocks of chemical or
biological agents? Well, we have the word of Emperor
George and his chief courtiers. Isn't that enough? 

Actually, no, it isn't. Mainly for two reasons. First,
it's hard to suppress a condescending smirk every time
the name "Bush" and the word "intelligence" occur in
the same sentence; besides, the information-gathering
abilities of US secret agencies have been shrouded in
considerable doubt ever since Mohammed Atta and co
caught them completely unawares, and various aspects
of the war in Afghanistan have reinforced that
suspicion. 

Secondly, it should by now be patently clear to all
but the blindest of Uncle Sam's votaries that
Washington is inclined to be extremely economical with
the truth. And it wasn't the September 11 outrage that
set its pants on fire. 

Does it follow that Saddam is a paragon of Arab virtue
who deserves unconditionally to be defended against
the shock troops of imperialism? Of course not. He is
a vicious dictator responsible for unspeakable
cruelties, not least against Iraqis. Wouldn't his
removal from power be, in that case, a very good idea?
It certainly would - but at whose behest and by what
methods? 

With a defence (that euphemism ought to be ruled
particularly inapplicable in the American case) budget
equal to 40 per cent of world military spending, the
US may indeed be almighty, but it is not God. (That
may be news to Blair and his Australian counterpart,
John Howard, but shouldn't come as a surprise to the
rest of us.) Until a more democratic international
forum can be set up, the United Nations is the only
body with any right to pronounce judgement on
deviants. Were a clear majority in its General
Assembly to decide that a particular dictator ought to
be ousted, if necessary by use of force, a standing UN
army should be available to carry out that decision. 

The US would be an unacceptable substitute under any
conditions, but it is especially so under an
unelected, rapacious and rabidly right-wing
administration. 

Although the 1991 Gulf War was also essentially a US
venture, it did at least have Security Council
sanction. It is extremely unlikely that any such cover
will be available for the action replay. 

Eleven years ago, notwithstanding the long list of
charges against him, the Takriti dictator was allowed
to remain at the helm of a country that, according to
the hype, had been bombed back to the Stone Age
because Dubya's daddy was worried about the shape a
post-Saddam Iraq may assume. There will presumably be
no such compunctions this time around, even though the
US still has little idea of the long-term
consequences. 

Iraq is 65 per cent Shia - and, not surprisingly,
Iraq's Shias enjoy Iran's sympathy. It is therefore
hardly likely that the post-Saddam scenario would
include a purely democratic dimension, given that
Iran, too, is a founding member of Bush's "axis of
evil". 

Then there is Turkey - a Nato member inclined towards
a cosy relationship not just with the US but even with
Israel, yet determined to deny democratic rights to
its substantial Kurdish minority. It would hate to see
Iraq's Kurds, who have been enjoying a degree of
autonomy under UN protection, being accorded any
special privileges, let alone a state of their own. 

Needless to say, Turkey's repression of the Kurds has
rarely, if ever, incurred Uncle Sam's wrath. Saddam's
use of chemical weapons against Iraqi Kurds, on the
other hand, rated a mention in the largely ridiculous
"axis of evil" oration. Bush didn't, however, mention
that his father's administration continued to support
and arm Saddam even after convincing evidence had
emerged of the atrocities at Halabja. He was, after
all, still engaged in a gratuitous war against Iran. 

If the Saddam regime is indeed still engaged in
manufacturing nuclear and chemical weapons, it would
suggest that the sanctions imposed after the Gulf war
have completely failed - despite costing hundreds of
thousands of lives, mainly those of children, a price
well worth paying in the words of Madeleine Albright. 

It is believed that when renewal of the sanctions
comes up before the UN in May, Iraq will be badgered
to allow arms inspectors access to all suspected
weapons sites. Should Baghdad not agree to the
teeniest clause, it will be threatened with war. Iraq,
which was engaged in talks with the UN at the time of
writing, has said that it would cooperate with
inspectors, provided they weren't US spies. This is
not an outlandish rider: there is plenty of
independent proof that the previous arms inspection
regime did indeed involve activities not sanctioned by
the UN. 

The problem is that this time the US is not, as an
administration official anonymously put it, 'prepared
to take yes for an answer'. No matter what Baghdad
accedes to, it will never be enough. 

The world has not witnessed a stronger empire than the
US since the Romans. This is arguably the most
portentous consequence of the collapse of the Soviet
Union. Today there are American bases not just in
Pakistan and Afghanistan, but in Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as well - which would have
been unthinkable just over 10 years ago. 

This empire is dedicated solely to ensuring the
military and economic supremacy of the US. It does not
care a whit for Iraqis, Afghans or Pakistanis. It is
willing, whenever it is deemed necessary, to violate
its own principles - the recent 30 per cent tariff on
steel imports clearly does not square with the free
trade imperative, but that does not unduly bother
Bush, Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld. 

The problem is not just that hardly anyone is willing
to tell the US where to draw the line, but that
whenever someone plucks up the courage to do so, the
US takes malicious pleasure in ignoring the caution. 

The campaign in Afghanistan has in many ways been a
disaster; the interim administration notwithstanding,
the country is in a mess.Iraq will be much worse,
regardless of whether or not the US is able to fulfil
its objective of gaining control, at least by proxy,
of that nation's prodigious petroleum resources. 

Chances are that the American empire will expand
across much of the world before receiving its
come-uppance - as eventually it must. You and I may
not be around to witness a world in which being
American does not entail being more equal than
everyone else, but it will happen. And then history
books will cite the fate of Iraq as an obvious example
of imperial overreach. 



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