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http://www.dawn.com/2002/03/14/int13.htm

DAWN (Pakistan)
March 14, 2002


Pentagon N-plan sends shivers around ME 
By Alistair Lyon 

LONDON (Reuters): A secret Pentagon review of nuclear
options has alarmed Middle Eastern "rogue" states
listed as potential US targets and could even
encourage them to acquire weapons of mass destruction,
analysts said. 

The US Defence Department's nuclear posture review,
reported in US media, talks of developing new kinds of
nuclear weapons and sets out contingency plans for
using them on Iran, Iraq, Libya and Syria, along with
China, North Korea and Russia. 

US Secretary of State Colin Powell has sought to
portray the review as routine planning, but national
security adviser Condoleezza Rice stressed its message
of deterrence. 

The US administration was sending a "very strong
signal" to anyone tempted to use weapons of mass
destruction against the United States. "The only way
to deter such a use is to be clear it would be met
with a devastating response," she said. 

William Hopkinson, a security expert at London's Royal
Institute of International Affairs, said that while
the review might never become US policy, its contents
could handicap American efforts to win support for a
possible war on Iraq. "It will immensely complicate
(US Vice President Dick) Cheney's visit to the Middle
East," he said. 

Cheney was in Egypt on Wednesday on the second leg of
an 11-nation Middle East tour to discuss the US-led
'war on terror' and possible military action against
Iraq. 

Most Arab leaders were expected to tell him their
priority was ending Israel's occupation of the West
Bank and Gaza Strip, not removing Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein. 

Regional reaction to the nuclear review has ranged
from stunned silence to anger that Washington might
jettison a pledge by the big powers not to use nuclear
arms against states that have foresworn them, unless
they have nuclear-armed allies. 

ISRAEL ODD MAN OUT: Iran, Iraq, Libya and Syria have
all signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Israel has not. 

"The United States believes that by threatening those
countries, they will withdraw their logical demands,"
said Iran's influential former president, Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani. 

"The widespread presence of American and allied troops
around the world shows their policy is one of
intimidation." 

Iraq's Saddam, widely tipped as the next target in
Bush's "war on terrorism", said this week Iraqis would
not be scared by "futile threats" from the United
States. 

Salim al-Kubaisi, head of the Iraqi parliament's
Foreign and Arab Relations Committee, said the US plan
was a flagrant violation of international conventions.


"The United Nations should, first of all, condemn such
an American move and then it should take action to
prevent the United States from using such weapons," he
said. 

Saddam refrained from using biological or chemical
weapons in the 1991 Gulf War after US President George
Bush warned Baghdad that this would trigger "the
strongest possible response" - a possible reference to
nuclear reprisals. 

Abdel Monem Said, director of Cairo's al-Ahram Centre
for Political and Strategic Studies, said the review
was part of efforts to force "rogue" states to bow to
US wishes. 

"It's part of psychological pressure the US wants to
put on some states like Iraq to get them to do things
like accept UN weapons inspectors," he said. "The
United States wants to keep them on high alert, to
keep them guessing." There has been no public response
to the Pentagon review from Syria or Libya, both
trying to avoid becoming targets in the anti-terror
campaign that shot to the top of Washington's
priorities after the Sept 11 attacks on US cities. 

INCENTIVE TO PROLIFERATE: Hazem Saghiyeh, a columnist
for the London-based pan-Arab al-Hayat newspaper, said
the review, said to recommend building smaller, more
accurate nuclear devices that could be used for
example against caves or underground bunkers, had
dangerously blurred the distinction between
conventional and nuclear arms. 

He said the Pentagon document could spur the nuclear
aspirations of U.S. foes in the Middle East. "Nuclear
weapons are becoming smaller and cheaper and they are
not the monopoly of the United States and the main
nuclear powers. Access to them is much easier than
before." 

Saghiyeh said the Pentagon review, in what he called
its reliance on the law of the jungle, represented an
ideological victory of sorts for the countries on the
US target list. "Instead of setting an example, (the
United States) is accepting the example of rogue
states," he argued. 

Hopkinson said the review's disclosures were sure to
annoy Syria, which he said had been cooperating with
the United States in the struggle against terrorism
since September 11. 

Libya would also feel stung about its inclusion on the
potential nuclear target list after its efforts to
rehabilitate itself in world eyes by handing over the
suspects in the 1988 bombing of a US airliner over
Lockerbie, in Scotland. 

"These countries will ask, 'why us?'," Hopkinson said.
"They will compare and contrast with Israel, which is
a nuclear power and also threatens Arabs in an
outrageous way." 

He said the review would enrage Iran, which had
collaborated in the US campaign against Osama bin
Laden's Taliban hosts, and would make life harder for
reformist elements in Tehran. 

"Iran was mentioned idiotically in the 'axis of
evil'," Hopkinson said. "If anything were to lead to
an impulse for nuclear proliferation, it would be
that.-Reuters 





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