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http://www.thescotsman.co.uk/opinion.cfm?id=305452002

The Scotsman
March 20, 2002

Kirsty Milne: A wartime windfall for the �peace
party�? 

IN THE pale and undistinguished ranks of the
parliamentary Labour party, Chris Mullin is a man
worth listening to. A former investigative journalist
who fictionalised the dirty ways of the establishment
in A Very British Coup, the Sunderland MP values his
independence so much that he resigned from a
government job at the last election, preferring the
bleak freedom of the back benches. 

It was characteristic of Mr Mullin that on Monday, as
Geoff Hoon announced the dispatch of 1,700 marines to
Afghanistan, he gave the Defence Secretary a warning
wrapped up in a vote of confidence. Welcoming the
deployment as evidence of Britain�s commitment, Mr
Mullin added: "The lesson of the complications that we
are encountering in Afghanistan surely is that we will
not have resources available for any adventures in
other parts of the Middle East, such as Iraq." 

The word "adventures" was pronounced with the
slightest intonation of disdain. 

Though Mr Mullin did not say so, the timing of
Monday�s statement could not have been more convenient
for Tony Blair. A US request for help has been in the
offing for weeks. But just as Labour rumblings of
worry about a possible war with Iraq were getting
noisier, just as Cabinet ministers were expressing
unease and military men were counselling caution, the
surprise Commons announcement switched attention from
Saddam Hussein back to the al-Qaeda network. 

Mr Hoon, who refused to answer questions on Iraq, did
not quite say: "Now here�s a war we can all agree on,"
but he might as well have done. Despite their doubts
about "exit strategy" and "mission creep", most Labour
MPs support action against al-Qaeda and will stay
loyal in today�s emergency Commons debate. 

Besides, sending British troops to fight abroad
prompts patriotic reflexes that overwhelm dissent. The
very word "marine" brings newspapers out in ecstasies.
"In we go," was the headline in the Sun. "A job for
the very best," declared the Daily Mail (though not in
its Scottish edition). 

It may be too conspiratorial to detect the influence
of Tucker Eskew, the White House press aide who has
spent several months in London co-ordinating media
strategy between the Prime Minister and President
Bush. But it is not too cynical to suggest that
spin-doctors in London and Washington are trying to
soften up public opinion for another war. 

If there is to be an attack on Iraq later this year,
with the UK taking part, "linkage" will be crucial.
War on Afghanistan must somehow be linked with war on
Iraq, even without a proven link between Saddam
Hussein and 11 September. Critics of more military
"adventures" will be trying to maintain a strict
separation between the Afghan campaign and any strike
against Baghdad. 

Mr Mullin�s was an early attempt to draw a demarcation
line. But he will not be alone. Plenty of Labour
politicians are querying President Bush�s military
ambitions, and they are not the usual suspects. 

David Blunkett warns the Cabinet of possible civil
unrest among Muslim communities. Mo Mowlam, once a
party heroine, complains of Mr Blair�s "reckless
attitude". The growing list of names attached to a
Commons motion against military action in Iraq now
includes Chris Smith, the former culture secretary,
and several Scottish MPs not usually given to
rebellion. 

One of the signatories, Joan Ruddock, who chaired the
Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament in the Eighties, must
be experiencing a sense of d�j� vu as she hears casual
talk of "mini-nukes" coming out of Washington. In this
strange atmosphere, simultaneously war-hungry and
war-averse, post-Cold War certainties are cracking
fast. 

The effects are perceptible even at the level of
domestic politics. A few months ago, the news that the
Scottish National Party is likely to stick with its
non-nuclear, non-NATO policy would merely have made
the party look old-fashioned and irrelevant -
committed to "a brigadoon republic", as George Kerevan
wrote in these pages shortly after 11 September. At a
time when east European countries and Baltic states
are queuing to join NATO, he argued, an independent
Scotland would be turning her back on international
solidarity and co-operation. 

Six months on, the SNP does not seem so much
backward-looking as forward-looking. The aftermath of
11 September has kickstarted a debate about whether
NATO has a future at all. 

Anatol Lieven, of the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, calls the alliance "half-dead"
and "completely worthless" in the fight against
terrorism. A recent pamphlet from the Centre for
European Reform maintains that NATO is "marginal" to
US strategy. "The Americans have won this war
themselves," writes Charles Grant, the centre�s
director, "and it is unlikely that they will ever
again wish to use NATO to manage a serious shooting
war." 

The tenor of these arguments is that the European
Union should get its military act together, learning
to specialise in peacekeeping and Balkan civil wars.
No wonder Lord (George) Robertson, NATO�s
secretary-general, has been touring the think-tanks of
Europe to insist on its continued relevance. 

The SNP has been wavering over its stance on NATO,
nervous of being portrayed as extreme and
isolationist. A review group chaired by the deputy
leader, Roseanna Cunningham, was asked to examine the
issue and reported back to party members last week.
While its conclusions have yet to go to the ruling
national council, the group is adamant that an
independent Scotland should withdraw from NATO and
start negotiations to get rid of Trident as part of "a
fundamental and unshakeable commitment" to a
nuclear-free country. 

By contrast, the review is positive about a European
rapid reaction force - making the assumption that
Scotland would still be a member of the European
Union. It suggests that the most potent threat to
Scotland is not from a conventional military attack
but "from other dangers, such as those posed by
terrorism, the drugs trade, human trafficking and
other forms of organised crime". 

By standing still, the Nationalists could be said to
have caught up with history. Their timing may be
fortuitous but, with a new poll showing half of UK
voters opposed to an attack on Iraq, it could prove
politically apt. 

Suppose British troops stay in Afghanistan for what
Geoff Hoon conceded yesterday would be an "open-ended"
tour of duty. Some are wounded, some die. There ensues
a delayed, much riskier and more unpopular attack on
Iraq, which could mean the use of chemical and
biological weapons, retaliation against Israel, and
further tensions in the Muslim world. Fear of nuclear
attack becomes real as it has not been since the
Eighties. 

By this time, we could be well into the winter of this
year or the spring of next. There is a Holyrood
election scheduled for May 2003. It would be a strange
thing if the SNP, which suffered from being the peace
party during the war on Serbia, gained from being the
peace party during a war on Iraq.  



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