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JERUSALEM, March 24 � As the United States tries to mediate a truce in
the Middle East, Israeli military planners are preparing for a major
assault on Palestinian cities, towns and refugee camps that would be
broader and deeper than the offensive undertaken earlier this month,
according to Israeli officials.
�The next days might be crucial, because if we don�t succeed [in the
cease-fire talks], we may come to the conclusion that there is no hope,
and we have to choose the other way.�
� HIGH ISRAELI OFFICIAL
THE OFFICIALS, speaking on condition they not be identified,
emphasized that they intended to give every chance for the cease-fire
negotiations under the U.S. envoy, Anthony C. Zinni, to succeed. But
they expressed pessimism that the talks would lead to a durable end to
violence and terrorist attacks against Israelis.
If the talks fail as Palestinian violence continues, there is
widespread and growing support both in Prime Minister Ariel Sharon�s
government and in the army for what one official called a �comprehensive
military confrontation� with the Palestinians.
�The next days might be crucial, because if we don�t succeed [in
the cease-fire talks], we may come to the conclusion that there is no
hope, and we have to choose the other way,� said one highly placed
Israeli official.
The Israeli warnings seem designed both to prepare domestic and
international public opinion for a new round of bloodshed, and to induce
the Palestinians to crack down on militant groups and accede to Israel�s
terms for a truce. However, previous warnings have been met with
Palestinian threats and attacks. Western criticism of Israeli aggression
has generated sympathy for the Palestinian cause.
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Sharon�s dilemma is that as Israeli and Palestinian casualties
have soared in recent months, his popularity has plummeted.
Overwhelmingly, opinion polls show that Israelis do not believe the
74-year-old leader has a strategy to extricate the country from one of
its deepest crises. When Sharon pleaded with Israelis last month to
prepare for a drawn-out struggle, his ratings dipped further. When he
also announced last month that his policy was to inflict heavy losses on
the Palestinians so they would drop demands unacceptable to Israel, some
moderates in his coalition rebeled. His foreign minister, Shimon Peres,
has warned repeatedly that there is no military solution to the
conflict.
Still, during the past 18 months of Israeli-Palestinian clashes,
which have been characterized by a steady escalation of violence on both
sides, Israeli officials have frequently telegraphed their punches, as
they appear to be doing again.
For instance, early last year, top Israeli generals and officials
began speaking openly about the possibility of thrusts into
Palestinian-held territory-a scenario that was then considered drastic.
When Israeli forces made their first incursion, there was an
international outcry, including harsh criticism from Secretary of State
Colin L. Powell. Over time, however, the incursions became routine.
Early this year, senior officials started talking about raids on
Palestinian refugee camps, which until then had been regarded as
dangerous and off-limits. On Jan. 21, for instance, Sharon said Israel
would adopt �totally different tactics� if the Palestinians fired
homemade rockets into Israeli territory, which they did five days later.
On Feb. 28, the army attacked the Balata refugee camp near the
northern West Bank city of Nablus. In subsequent days, several other
camps were attacked-including the largest, Jabalya, in the Gaza Strip-in
the widest Israeli offensive in the Palestinian areas since 1967.
LIMITED RESULTS
The army has acknowledged that the two-week offensive, in which
more than 150 Palestinians were killed, achieved at best only part of
the desired result. Although several thousand Palestinians were rounded
up, virtually all of the most-wanted militants eluded capture. Some
weapons were seized, and suspected rocket-making workshops were
destroyed, but the Palestinians still have plenty of arms, and last week
fired a rocket from Gaza into Israeli territory.
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The Israeli assault also appeared to do little or nothing to
dent the Palestinians� will or ability to attack Israelis. In the week
since Israel withdrew from the last major chunks of Palestinian
territory it had retaken, there have been almost daily suicide bombings,
shootings or attempted terrorist attacks.
Now, the talk is of more aggressive military action.
Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz, the army chief of staff, said Israel�s
offensive was incomplete. Other officials have noted that the Israeli
attacks had an effect in stopping the flow of would-be terrorists out of
areas occupied by the army. There is a widely held view in the Israeli
army and security circles that the only way to stop terrorist and other
attacks on Israelis is to occupy the Palestinian areas where the
attackers live and operate-though even that provides no guarantee,
officials acknowledge.
�Let me remind you that during the week of our operation in
Ramallah, there was no terrorist attack that came out of Ramallah,� said
a senior official, referring to the Palestinians� unofficial capital in
the West Bank. �And in the days since our withdrawal there have been
several attacks [from the city], some of which we succeeded in
preventing and some of which we did not.�
FEW DETAILS OF PLANS
Officials are reluctant to reveal the details of the military
plans, other than to say they could involve the army driving deeper into
Palestinian cities, towns and refugee camps than it did this month,
staying considerably longer and hunting down more suspected militants.
But the officials are mindful that there are limits. No one in a
position of power in Israel is seriously considering a complete and
indefinite reoccupation of the West Bank and Gaza, carpet-bombing
Ramallah or destroying the Palestinian water and electricity systems, a
senior official said. Officials also acknowledged that Israeli planners
are sensitive to the political constraints on an all-out offensive,
including the fear of igniting a regional war and the likelihood of
criticism by the United States.
In Washington, a sharp escalation in Israeli attacks would likely
be seen as undermining the Bush administration�s efforts to muster Arab
support or acquiescence for a campaign against Saddam Hussein�s
government in Iraq. In Israel, an escalation could destabilize Sharon�s
coalition government, which includes moderates as well as hard-liners.
�Our dilemma is that all the Palestinians have to do to win is to
survive.�
� ISRAELI OFFICIAL
Moreover, even some proponents for a major new Israeli
offensive say they doubt it would end Palestinian attacks, and could
even play into the hands of the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat. �Our
dilemma is that all the Palestinians have to do to win is to survive,�
said one Israeli official. �That makes them a very hard enemy, but it
doesn�t mean you don�t fight them anyway.�
Nonetheless, the officials made clear that Israel could not long
maintain what they regard as its current posture of restraint, which has
been in place for about a week. Under the informal rules of Israel�s
restraint, the army has not stopped operating. But Israel has refrained
from launching air attacks in retaliation for Palestinian suicide
bombings.
Israeli newspapers have also reported in recent days that Sharon
has told the Bush administration to expect an escalation if no
cease-fire is achieved. For instance, Shimon Schiffer, arguably Israel�s
best-connected political reporter, wrote in the newspaper Yedioth
Ahronoth today that when Vice President Cheney visited Israel last week,
Sharon �reached an agreement� with him that if Zinni�s mission fails,
Washington would support Israeli strikes on the Palestinians. U.S.
officials did not deny the report.
It is unclear when the Israelis would launch a fresh attack, but
it probably would not occur while Zinni remains in the region.
Tonight, the fourth meeting in a week of Israeli and Palestinian
security commanders under the former Marine Corps general ended without
any agreement. Another meeting was scheduled for Monday.
DISAGREEMENTS IN TALKS
The two sides disagree over the timetable for a truce, and over
Israel�s demand that Palestinian militants be arrested. The Palestinians
are demanding that any truce be followed by a swift resumption of
political negotiations that would include a freeze on all construction
of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza. Israel refuses to tie
the truce talks to the prospect of political concessions, which Sharon
believes would constitute a reward for 18 months of renewed Palestinian
violence over continuing Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza
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As Israel prepares for the next phase of fighting, many in
Sharon�s hard-line Likud Party have promoted the option of a devastating
attack that would topple Arafat�s Palestinian Authority and root out
what Israelis call the �infrastructure of terror.� Among the advocates
is Sharon�s foremost rival within Likud, former prime minister Binyamin
Netanyahu, a likely challenger for the leadership of the party and the
government later this year or next year.
One of Sharon�s most important coalition partners, the
ultra-Orthodox Shas party, has added its support to a broad assault on
the Palestinians. �They need to be the ones who cry uncle, not us,� the
party leader, Interior Minister Eliahu Yishai, told the newspaper
Maariv. �I am a moderate person, and if I say this is the solution, then
the situation must really be dire.�
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