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> ___________________________________________________________________ > > > S T R A T F O R > > THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY > > http://www.stratfor.com > ___________________________________________________________________ > > 01 April 2002 > > THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT - FULL TEXT FOR MEMBERS ONLY > ___________________________________________________________________ > > Colombia: Growing Signs of Conflict's Regional Spillover > > Summary > > The Bush administration is many months away from obtaining > congressional approval for a plan to increase substantially U.S. > military aid to Colombia. However, the Colombian conflict is > already spilling over into neighboring countries with growing > intensity, presenting U.S. planners with the likelihood of a > significantly larger battlefield in which guerrillas, > paramilitaries and drug traffickers will not be restricted by the > territorial borders that constrain the Colombian army. > > Analysis > > As Colombia's conflict spills into countries such as Ecuador and > Venezuela in the coming months, the possibility of diplomatic > confrontations between Bogota and regional governments will > increase, complicating the Bush administration's efforts to > manage the regional political repercussions of a deeper U.S. > military presence in Colombia. At the same time, the > Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia's (FARC) growing use of > extra-territorial bases in Panama, Ecuador and Venezuela also is > likely to raise levels of violence dramatically along Colombia's > border regions with those countries. > > The FARC's use of extra-territorial bases may give it some > strategic advantages over the Colombian army in terms of staging > attacks and withdrawing to secure locations where the army > legally cannot pursue it. But it also is likely to trigger a > buildup in border areas of the paramilitary United Self-Defense > Forces of Colombia (AUC), which unlike the Colombian army, will > not stop its pursuit of the FARC at Colombia's national borders. > > In fact, the regional spillover of FARC and AUC forces into > neighboring countries could turn the border regions of these > countries into bloody battlefields if the Colombian army and AUC > cooperate in cross-border pincer attacks against FARC forces. It > also could suck the military and border security services of > other countries into armed engagements with Colombian combatants, > and it may endanger the lives and property of civilian non- > combatants in states and provinces that border Colombia. > > The regional spillover has become more visible since the > Colombian peace talks were scrapped Feb. 20. In the past month, > Ecuadorian army patrols discovered an abandoned FARC camp in > Sucumbios province, Peru's government confirmed it has > indications of FARC incursions into Peruvian territory and > Brazilian border police exchanged gunfire with a group of armed > men believed to have been a FARC or AUC patrol that crossed into > Brazilian territory. > > Also, the FARC's 33rd Front launched an assault in Colombia on > March 21 from inside Venezuelan territory, withdrawing into > Venezuela to escape the Colombian army. This was the 33rd Front's > first confirmed attack from a staging area inside Venezuela. > However, Caracas officially denied Colombian military charges > that FARC units are based inside Venezuela. > > The FARC's deployment of forces into the border regions of > neighboring countries is not necessarily part of a political > strategy to expand into foreign territory. Rather, the cross- > border deployments are more likely a defensive measure meant to > improve guerrillas' security from pursuit, attack and > surveillance by the Colombian army and also to protect critical > corridors through which FARC personnel, weapons, drugs and other > supplies travel into and out of Colombia. > > It most likely is not a coincidence that the FARC's most frequent > cross-border deployments recently have been to areas inside > Ecuador, Panama and Venezuela. These countries are vital supply > corridors for FARC forces in northern, eastern and southern > Colombia. In the south, Ecuador's port of Esmeralda and border > towns in the province of Sucumbios have been critical corridors > for smuggling weapons, ammunition and explosives into Colombia. > Additionally, Panama's southern Darien region has long been a > supply corridor and rear-guard rest area for FARC units in > northern Colombia. > > However, the FARC's most important supply corridor today runs > through Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez sympathizes openly > with the guerrillas. Two years ago, Chavez denounced Colombia's > ruling political establishment as "rancid oligarchs." In recent > months, his regime has denied repeatedly that Colombian > guerrillas operate in Venezuelan territory. > > Nevertheless, on March 21, the FARC's 33rd Front launched an > attack against targets near the Tibu and La Gabarra settlements > in Colombia's Norte de Santander region from a staging area > located more than one kilometer inside Venezuelan territory. > Units of the Colombian army's Second Division interdicted the > FARC force of approximately 150 fighters, and nearly 40 rebels > and soldiers were killed during five days of fighting. When the > FARC finally disengaged, it withdrew into Venezuelan territory > and then fired homemade mortars at Colombian army units from a > firebase about 600 meters inside Venezuela, according to Second > Division Commander Gen. Martin Carreno. > > Carreno's account was supported by Colombian Air Force Commander > Gen. Hector Fabio Velasco, who told El Tiempo March 28 that the > Colombian government has incontrovertible proof of a permanent > FARC presence inside Venezuela. > > Venezuelan Defense Minister Jose Vicente Rangel immediately > rejected these allegations as "completely false" and "ill > intentioned," according to the Caracas daily El Universal. Also, > Venezuelan Interior and Justice Minister Ramon Rodriguez Chacin, > who previously was Chavez's official presidential liaison to the > FARC, deplored the "aggression" of the Colombian generals and > suggested they were seeking foreign scapegoats to explain how the > FARC's 33rd Front successfully ambushed the Colombian army at > Tibu and La Gabarra. > > However, current and former Chavez government officials > contradict the Venezuelan government's denials that FARC forces > have deployed into its territory. For example, a political > situation report completed March 12 by the Defense Ministry's > intelligence division warned that Colombian guerrillas, > paramilitaries and drug traffickers are operating with growing > impunity in the Venezuelan border states of Apure, Barinas, > Portuguesa, Tachira and Zulia. > > Moreover, on Feb. 28, the former head of the counterinsurgency > division of the Interior and Justice Ministry's political police > said in a Caracas television interview that Venezuela's border > states were overrun by members of the FARC, the smaller National > Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group and AUC forces, and that > the FARC's 33rd and 20th Fronts were operating permanently inside > Venezuela. > > The Chavez government's official refusal to acknowledge the 33rd > Front's activities inside Venezuela could reflect Caracas' > suspicions about the Colombian army's political motives. > Venezuela's government, like the governments of Ecuador and > Brazil, has long complained about the weak military presence on > the Colombian side of the border. It also is possible that the > Chavez government is deliberately turning a blind eye to the > FARC's increasing activities inside Venezuela and will continue > doing so as long as the FARC does not attack any Venezuelan > military or police forces. After all, Chavez is believed to have > a secret non-aggression pact with the FARC and the ELN. > > However, if the 33rd Front and other FARC units keep using > Venezuela as a staging point for launching attacks, a safety zone > against hot pursuit by the Colombian army and for rest and > resupply, the AUC will quickly deploy into Venezuela either > directly or indirectly -- through Venezuelan paramilitary groups > financed by Venezuelans and trained by Colombian AUC veterans. > > If Chavez does little or nothing to stop the FARC, a diplomatic > crisis between his regime and the governments of Colombia and the > United States also may result. > ___________________________________________________________________ > > > <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< SEND THIS TO A FRIEND! >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > Did you like this analysis? Then forward it to a friend! > > Got this from a friend? 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