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Subject:      Text: NSC Official Outlines U.S. Strategy for the Balkans
Text: NSC Official Outlines U.S. Strategy for the Balkans

(National Security Council's Greg Schulte at Georgetown Univ.) (1660)

The U.S. vision for the future of the Balkans, as articulated by
President
Bush last year, is one of continuing peace and full integration into
European and transatlantic institutions, according to Greg Schulte of
the
National Security Council (NSC).

"A few years ago, this vision would have seemed fanciful. Today, that
vision is more in our reach," Schulte said March 20 at Georgetown
University in Washington.

He outlined the Bush administration's strategic objectives for the
region:
to integrate the Balkans into a Europe whole, free and at peace; to
shift
responsibilities to Europe while helping it to succeed; to hasten the
day
that peace is self-sustaining and NATO can withdraw its military
presence
in Bosnia and Kosovo; and to ensure that the region does not become a
safe
haven for global terrorism.

Schulte, the NSC senior director for Southeast Europe, said the greatest
threat to the stability of the Balkans today "comes not from states but
from their inadequacies -- the inability of the new democracies to
control
borders, to promote rule of law, and to respond to the needs and
insecurities of their citizens."

The crisis in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia was the first
test
of the administration's Balkans policy, he said, briefly discussing the
administration's response.

Schulte said the United States will continue to encourage and assist the
countries of the Balkans to move closer to the rest of Europe by
promoting
political, economic and military reform, and will encourage European
institutions such as NATO and the European Union to help with these
reforms and "to keep their doors open."

"As we make progress, we can remove some of the extraordinary
arrangements
that we erected to buttress the peace," he said. "In Bosnia, the
international structures can be increasingly 'Europeanized.' Kosovo need
not remain an international protectorate in perpetuity. And NATO need
not
retain standing military forces in Bosnia and Kosovo for the indefinite
future."

Following is the text of his presentation:

(begin text)

U.S. STRATEGY FOR THE BALKANS

Presentation by Greg Schulte
National Security Council Senior Director for Southeast Europe

Georgetown University
Washington, D.C.
March 20, 2002

When President Bush took office a year ago, European leaders watched the
new Administration nervously.  Was the United States still prepared to
play a role in the Balkans?  Would we pull our soldiers out of NATO-led
forces in Bosnia and Kosovo?  Would we declare the Balkans a problem for
Europe and not the United States?

The President's Vision and U.S. Strategic Objectives

In June, the President met with allied leaders at NATO Headquarters in
Brussels and assured them that, with respect to the Balkans, "we had
gone
in together and we would go out together."  One month later, at Camp
Bondsteel in Kosovo, he offered a new vision for the region.  It was not
the usual vision of war and suffering, but a vision of the Balkans that
is
fully part of a Europe whole, free, and at peace.

A few years ago, this vision would have seemed fanciful.  Today, that
vision is more in our reach.

- The Balkans is governed by leaders who are democratically elected, who
are committed to good relations with their neighbors, and who aspire to
join the European Union and NATO.

- At the center of the region, Serbia is increasingly a partner and a
source of stability, rather than a source of war.  While democratic
reforms are far from complete, Serbia's former dictator, Slobodan
Milosevic, is standing trial in The Hague.

- Finally, Europe and its institutions are increasingly capable of
leading
the diplomacy, reform, and international structures necessary to keep
the
peace.

Keeping in mind the President's vision, as well as the terror of
September
11th, the Administration has a clear set of strategic objectives for the
region:

- Integrate the Balkans into a Europe whole, free and at peace.

- Shift responsibilities to Europe while helping it to succeed.

- Hasten the day that peace is self-sustaining and NATO can withdraw its
military presence in Bosnia and Kosovo.

- Ensure that the region does not become a safe haven or way station for
global terrorism.

But there are obstacles.  Ten years ago, we worried about states like
Serbia and Croatia and political leaders like Milosevic and Tudjman as
the
primary cause of conflict and war.  Today, the greatest threat to
stability comes not from states but from their inadequacies -- the
inability of the new democracies to control borders, to promote rule of
law, and to respond to the needs and insecurities of their citizens.

One year ago, these same inadequacies were exploited by violent
extremists
who nearly succeeded in causing another Balkan war, this time in
Macedonia.  The crisis in Macedonia was a first test for the
Administration's strategy for the region.

The Crisis in Macedonia -- A First Test for the Strategy

When this Administration came to office, it had a full national security
agenda.  The Balkans was one of the last areas that the new
Administration
wanted to tackle.  But fighting in Macedonia meant that it had to be one
of the first.

Before last spring, observers of the Balkans regularly held up Macedonia
as a model of democracy and ethnic harmony in the Balkans.  But that
changed with the sudden outbreak of violence between ethnic Albanian
insurgents and Macedonian police and paramilitary groups.  Fighting
drove
people from their homes, tore at ethnic coexistence, and created a risk
of
widespread ethnic conflict.  We worried about worst case scenarios, in
which escalating fighting and refugee flows would destabilize the region
and threaten our interest in European security.

Former officials and think tank analysts called for the President to
send
a "special envoy" to take charge of the diplomacy or for the US to lead
a
NATO force to stop the fighting and separate the belligerents.  The
Administration was fully conscious of the risks but also of our
objectives.  Thus we took a different approach.

-- First, rather than intervening militarily, we worked to bolster the
multi-ethnic government and to cut off political and material support
for
the insurgents.  KFOR sent troops along the border with Macedonia to
disrupt the insurgent's supply lines.  And we sent a clear message to
Albanian leaders in Albania and Kosovo that supporting violence in
Macedonia would hurt Albanian interests across the region.

-- Second, rather than trying to impose a peace settlement made in
America, we worked with the EU and President Trajkovski to facilitate
negotiations among the elected political representatives of the two
ethnic
groups.  This resulted in signature last August of a Framework Agreement
that addressed legitimate grievances of the Albanian minority while
protecting the unity of the Macedonian state.  We encouraged the EU to
take the lead in implementation and gave our full support.

-- Third, rather than sending in a large NATO force to enforce the
settlement, we sent in a small NATO task force to oversee the voluntary
disarmament of the insurgents.  A second, smaller NATO task force is now
providing protection to the EU and OSCE observers overseeing the return
of
multi-ethnic police to former areas of conflict.  We welcomed the
willingness of European allies like the UK and Germany to provide the
leadership and forces for those task forces, while reassuring them that
the US would be there in case of emergency.

Taking this approach, we succeeded in avoiding civil war and keeping
Macedonia whole and at peace.  We avoided another extended deployment of
NATO military forces to conduct a mission more appropriate for police.
And we advanced our regional strategy of integrating the Balkans into
Europe with the Europeans increasingly in the lead.

Implementing the Strategy

At the heart of our regional strategy are twin requirements.

-- The first requirement is to encourage and assist the countries of the
Balkans to move closer to the rest of Europe.  This entails promoting
democratic governance, free markets, and rule of law through political,
economic, and military reform.

-- The second requirement is to encourage European institutions like the
EU and NATO to help the countries with reform and integration and to
keep
their doors open to the countries from the Balkans.  Key institutional
mechanisms are the EU's Stabilization and Association Process and NATO's
Partnership for Peace and Membership Action Plan.

How the United States deals with the countries is crucial.  We no longer
start meetings with Bosnia's leaders by pressing them to implement the
1995 Dayton Peace Accords; instead, we ask how they are doing in
preparing
for a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU.  And during
recent negotiations between Serbia and Montenegro, we politely told the
leaders involved that the EU's Javier Solana was the international
negotiator and had our support.

Organizing for Success

How we organize international engagement is also important.  Over the
last
six years, as we managed one crisis then another, we created a patchwork
of ad hoc international structures to protect the peace.  In Bosnia, the
Office of the High Representative leads implementation of the Dayton
Peace
Accords.  In Kosovo, the UN is in charge of setting up provisional
self-government.  And in Macedonia, both the EU and OSCE play lead roles
in implementing the Framework Agreement.

As we pursue our regional strategy of Euro-integration, the EU and NATO
are increasingly the key mechanisms for international engagement and the
prime movers for reform.  And as we make progress, we can remove some of
the extraordinary arrangements that we erected to buttress the peace.
In
Bosnia, the international structures can be increasingly "Europeanized."
Kosovo need not remain an international protectorate in perpetuity.  And
NATO need not retain standing military forces in Bosnia and Kosovo for
the
indefinite future.

Conclusion

The road ahead will be hard.  In traveling through the Balkans, there
are
many opportunities for detours and ambushes.  But we have a vision and a
strategy to guide our progress and to increasingly make southeast Europe
a
peaceful part of Europe.

(end text)

(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
NNNN

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