HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK
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Nezavisimoye Voennoye Obozreniye
No. 10
2002
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
RUSSIA SURROUNDED WITH US MILITARY BASES
Moscow still doesn't know whether this is good or bad
By Mikhail KHODARENOK
In spite of Moscow's really emotional protests, the United
States and NATO, which have now established a bridge-head in
Central Asia, continue to expand their military presence on
former Soviet territory. The geo-political importance of some
CIS countries is too great during the forthcoming re-alignment
of the South-West Asian and Mideastern balance of forces.
That's why the concerned parties are in no mood to heed the
objections of Russia, which has seriously depleted its
military-economic potential over the last decade.
Central Asia -- The Intermediate Result
The Central Asian heart-land has never seen such a multi-
national US-European troop contingent ever since the epic
expeditions of Alexander the Great. A tactical group of the
third British mechanized division (400 soldiers, all told) is
now stationed in Kabul. A tactical group of a German airborne
brigade numbering 200 soldiers is also located there. Add to
this units of an Italian infantry regiment (100 soldiers), a
300-strong French armored-cavalry regiment, a Spanish military
unit numbering 50 soldiers, a joint 150-strong German-Dutch
unit, as well as up to 300 US Marines. Apart from that, US and
NATO military units are stationed in Kandahar. The US Army's
101-st air-assault division has contributed 1,000 soldiers. A
1,500-strong expeditionary USMC (United States Marine Corps)
battalion is also staying there. Moreover, 100 British and 300
Canadian soldiers are stationed in Kandahar. 100 soldiers
serving with US special forces have settled down in Herat; yet
another 200-strong American SWAT (Special Weapons and Tactics)
unit is based in Shindand. Meanwhile 400 soldiers from the US
Army's 10-th light-infantry division, as well as a 600-strong
battalion of British Marines, are stationed in Baghram. All in
all, ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) in
Afghanistan comprises the following national troop contingents
-- Great Britain, 2,000 soldiers; France, 500 soldiers;
Germany, 900 soldiers; Norway, 100 soldiers; Italy, 100
soldiers; Turkey, 200 soldiers; Denmark, 200 soldiers; Jordan,
500 soldiers. As of today, about 12,000 soldiers, including
8,000 Americans and about 1,000 Canadians, are involved in the
Afghan counter-terrorist operation.
US and NATO military installations on the territory of
former Soviet Central Asian republics are instrumental in
providing logistics support for multi-national forces and their
operations. As is known, the United States and NATO have
reliably asserted themselves at Uzbek, Kirghiz and Tajik bases,
i.e. Manas (Bishkek), Karshi, Kulyab, Kokaidy and Termez. All
these airfields were to have been used for re-supply missions,
for transporting humanitarian relief aid and for deploying
search- and-rescue units. However, the first few French
Mirage-2000 fighters have landed in Manas not so long ago.
Until then, reconnaissance aircraft, including Predator drones,
used to operate rather actively from all bases in the interests
of the US-NATO air-force formation being used against Al-Qaeda
units.
Moreover, ranger units, AWACS-type aircraft, psychological-
warfare and reconnaissance planes were deployed there.
The appearance of Mirage-2000 fighters is seen as yet
another US-NATO military build-up phase in this region. One has
every reason to believe that this move is not some isolated
occurrence, and that it highlights a certain trend instead. Few
obstacles impede now the conversion of former Soviet military
bases into full-fledged Western outposts. Among other things,
the stockpiling of aircraft fuel and weapons is seen as the
most labor-consuming process, which requires more time to
complete than all other processes. Nonetheless, all local
airfields could be used for sustaining the most determined
attacks, once this process is complete.
It should be emphasized that Central Asian countries
themselves consider US military presence quite profitable. The
configuration of their borders, which had been arbitrarily
drawn by the Bolsheviks, is always fraught with the danger of
bloody inter-ethnic wars, which would inevitably entail the
uncontrollable massacre of civilians, causing a multitude of
people to flee their native parts. The latter would lead to
absolutely unpredictable consequences. Besides, not a single
post-Soviet republic has sufficiently powerful armed forces
capable of rectifying the hypothetically unfavorable regional
situation.
Even Uzbekistan, which has weighty reasons to aspire for
regional leadership, has a rudimentary army, which, at best,
can accomplish only a limited range of objectives.
Consequently, Central Asia simply can't do today without a
powerful "sergeant of the relief," or "neighborhood cop."
Therefore one can safely say that US-NATO military presence is
perceived as a regional blessing and a guarantee of sorts
against terrible blood-baths in the struggle to control land,
water and other natural resources.
By the way, such terrifying clashes had already taken place in
the early 1990s.
The Second Asian Wave
Quite possibly, after gaining a foot-hold in Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan and Kirghizia, the United States will be sorely
tempted to spread its military presence over Kazakhstan, which
looms over the whole of Central Asia like some kind of a
tremendous horse-shoe. The US side will, most likely, establish
control over former Soviet air-force bases in Taldy-Kurgan,
Zhangiz-Tobe, Semipalatinsk, Zhana-Semei and the Alma-Ata
airfield junction (i.e. the south-eastern axis), for openers.
The Americans will most likely be acting in line with
time-tested methods; if necessary, US specialists will upgrade
the local tarmac, subsequently improving radio-technical
landing aids and beacons in line with NATO standards. Kazakh
airfields will then be used by NATO cargo aircraft, with
military planes arriving later on.
A paradoxical and hitherto unthinkable situation can shape
up, when Russian military installations in Kazakhstan, i.e. an
early-warning radio-technical facility on cape Gulshad (Lake
Balkhash), the Saryshagan ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) testing
range, as well as state-run testing range No. 5 in Baikonur,
find themselves surrounded with NATO military bases. Moreover,
it can't be excluded that Russia might have to coordinate all
military shipments to these facilities with both local
authorities, as well as US and NATO representatives. Some
people may think this forecast is too fantastic and pessimistic.
However, it should be reminded that some Kremlin high-placed
officials had also perceived any possible US military presence
in Central Asia as an non-viable hypothesis not so long ago.
A Scenario for Tbilisi
Right now, a relatively small US troop contingent is
stationed in Georgia. Technically speaking, US servicemen would
be expected to render military-technical assistance in
organizing several Georgian SWAT (Special Weapons and Tactics)
battalions.
Tbilisi subsequently intends to use such units for fighting
terrorist groups and in order to enhance Georgia's territorial
integrity. How feasible is this task? Our article doesn't aim
to discuss this issue; however, several world-class units
boasting state-of-the-art weaponry might eventually constitute
the new Georgian army's nucleus.
One should also keep in mind that Georgian society aims to
restore the country's territorial integrity, regarding this as
a top-priority national goal. As is known, the end justifies
the means. Georgia could even forsake part of its sovereignty
in favour of a powerful ally that would help it suppress the
separatist movement. Given these realities, one should say that
the Georgian leadership is acting in a well thought-out manner,
expressing priority national interests; such actions can also
be long-term. By all looks, official Tbilisi intends to
radically solve the problem of its rebellious territories,
before their self-determination process goes too far, and
before it becomes irreversible.
It's therefore hardly surprising that the Georgian
infrastructure will be used by the United States and NATO,
which continue their crusade against international terrorism at
this stage. Geo-politically Georgia plays the part of a bridge
for the transit of Central Asian crude oil and other mineral
resources.
Consequently, the leadership of this young independent republic
can obtain numerous advantages as a result of its foreign-
political maneuvers. Moreover, one should not under-estimate
Georgia's territory as a convenient bridge-head for waging a
war against Iran and Iraq. Incidentally, the United States has
already announced its decision to fight such a war rather
loudly.
Therefore possible US control over this Trans-Caucasian
republic would apparently benefit Tbilisi and Washington alike.
The Georgian leadership's aspirations therefore tally with
the US diversification theory, which implies that Kazakh and
Central Asian natural resources should be delivered along
different routes. Georgia is therefore becoming a natural US
ally. Consequently, it wouldn't be an exaggeration to say that
US Air Force and NATO bases will be deployed in Georgian
territory soon after the arrival of first several hundred US
servicemen.
Such bases might well appear at former Soviet airfields, which
had belonged to the former Soviet 34-th air army and the USSR's
air-defense force -- Marneuli, Vaziani, Senaki (Mikha
Tskhakaya) and Gudauta. After that, Turkish military units
might well be deployed there; by the way, Ankara has already
hinted that this is theoretically possible. There is no
doubting the fact that the fate of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
would be predetermined, after this happens. In that case,
Moscow, which has repeatedly advocated Georgian territorial
integrity, and which boasts a limited military potential, would
merely be able to observe the outcome of a brief conflict.
Baku and Counter-Terrorist Plans
Azerbaijan, which borders on Iran, is regarded as a
convenient air-force base for tactical US and NATO warplanes,
that is, if Washington and Brussels decide to go ahead with a
possible counter-terrorist operation, attacking Iran in the
process. As of today, Washington considers Iran to be the
bulwark of international terrorism. In this case former Soviet
first-category air-force bases in Kyurdamir and Nasosnaya
(Pumping Station) will prove to be a highly valuable asset for
the United States. Surely enough, their current state leaves a
lot to be desired. However, the US side, which boasts
tremendous resources, can upgrade these two bases in no time at
all. If necessary, the United States and NATO could also use
the international airport in Baku. However, all these airfields
can accommodate no more than 90-100 tactical aircraft,
reconnaissance planes and flying tankers. Nonetheless, even
this number is enough to conduct limited air strikes and to
seriously threaten theoretical enemies from the northern axis.
The distance between Azeri bases and vital Iranian
facilities is negligible; moreover, one should keep in mind
that warplane pilots have every chance of ejecting to safety
over the Caspian Sea, if their aircraft are damaged during
combat missions. Search-and-rescue teams would fish them out
from international waters with almost 100-percent chances of
success just because the Caspian Sea lacks any hostile and
fanatical population. The US side perceives this as a highly
important factor.
As a reward for possible collaboration Azerbaijan may be
offered substantial US and NATO support in settling the Nagorny
Karabakh conflict. It's an established fact that the OSCE
(Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) is unable
to deblock this conflict. Official Baku links any possible
withdrawal from the Karabakh impasse with Washington and
Brussels. This implies coinciding interests, and only such
consensus provides real-life allies. Any project aiming to
transport Caspian, Central Asian and Kazakh hydro-carbon
resources elsewhere would seem a bit far-fetched, unless
Azerbaijan takes part in such projects.
The Results
On the one hand, Russia stands to gain a lot from that US
blitzkrieg on Afghan territory. The Talib "thorn," which could
have entailed "sepsis" and even "death" for the entire Central
Asia, as well as utterly unpredictable consequences for the
Russian Federation's southern flank, has now been almost pulled
out. Analysts are inclined to think that extremist groups are
highly unlikely to re-assert themselves in Afghanistan and
newly independent Central Asian countries in the foreseeable
future. On the other hand, though, there can be no power vacuum
in regional politics. Moscow perceives Russia's withdrawal from
the geo- political scene in the obtaining situation as a
painful inevitability. Meanwhile the appearance of a new
Central Asian leader is perceived as an objective necessity
because regional countries might otherwise plunge into bloody
small wars.
It's becoming absolutely clear nowadays that many of the
Russian leadership's extremely costly and painstaking projects
had been false from the very outset, thereby leading us into a
blind alley. Frankly speaking, the most far-sighted Russian
analysts had warned about this back in the early 1990s. Quite
possibly, the list of such projects includes the collective CIS
peace-keeping forces, which have virtually become redundant
today, as well as the protection of the CIS external perimeter. Russian
society apparently doesn't know that the latter idea
has also lost its topicality; nonetheless, it had been the
subject of heated debates, with the Russian treasury spending a
lot of money on this project. The epoch of open borders within
the CIS is also nearing its completion, upon benefiting most of
our neighbors, rather than Russia itself. In fact, Russia is
engulfed by millions upon millions of illegal migrants.
In the obtaining situation, the United States has obtained
more benefits than all other countries, virtually gaining
access to the immense regional natural resources. And, most
importantly, for today Moscow stands to gain from NATO's
Central Asian military presence after the successful operation
against the Taliban. However, such military presence would
provide some dubious advantages in the foreseeable future.
Washington acquires powerful leverage for influencing
subsequent Russian political aspirations in line with any
possible scenario, thus reducing Moscow's maneuvering room on
the global political scene still further. Quite possibly, this
constitutes the main result of America's penetration into this
hitherto walled-in strategic region.
The second stage of expanded NATO military presence on
former Soviet territory couldn't but evoke serious irritation
on the Kremlin's part from the very outset. Washington then
made some soothing statements. However, Moscow lacks any
real-life military-economic leverage for influencing the
situation.
Consequently, one has every reason to believe that the
Kremlin's persisting imperial moods won't be enhanced.
Naturally enough, Russia opposes the second stage of expanded
US and NATO military presence in post-Soviet republics; the
same can be said about a hypothetical third stage. Nonetheless,
Moscow is so far unable to clearly formulate the relevant
political goal of countering expanded US and NATO influence on
CIS countries. The Kremlin merely says that it opposes such a
policy. Any arguments in favour of this position don't sound
convincing enough; meanwhile it's an open secret that the
subordination of strategic goals and tasks to political goals
constitutes a highly important military- strategy principle. It
would be well-nigh impossible to implement specific
Trans-Caucasian and Central Asian policies in line with
long-term national interests, unless such political goals are
explained to all strata of Russian society in an easy-to-
understand language.
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