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STRATFOR: > Summit May Signal U.K.-U.S. Split Over Israel > > Summary > > Official statements following the recent meeting between U.S. > President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair > focused primarily on the need for military action in Iraq, but a > joint statement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was > conspicuously absent. This could betray a deeper disagreement > between the two countries over how to deal with Israel, further > sidetracking Washington from its pursuit of al Qaeda. > > Analysis > > The recent meeting between U.S. President George W. Bush and > British Prime Minister Tony Blair in Crawford, Texas, initially > was supposed to focus on ways to help resolve the Israeli- > Palestinian conflict. Instead, post-meeting statements by both > heads of state focused primarily on Iraq. > > The two leaders needed to end the summit in agreement -- given > that Washington needs a foreign policy boost from its closest > European ally and Britain always benefits from publicly > reinforcing its relationship with the United States -- and they > did. In order to do so, however, they fell back an old, reliable > enemy: Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The post-summit emphasis > on Iraq and the failure to endorse a common approach to the > Israeli-Palestinian conflict may mask a more fundamental > disagreement over Israel. > > A rift with London over Israel would create problems for > Washington on two levels. First, the Bush administration has been > trying to avoid getting bogged down in Israel because this would > detract from its primary foreign policy objective of rooting out > al Qaeda. Second, lacking widespread international support for > its agenda, Washington can hardly afford a disagreement over > Israel with its primary international ally, especially since it > relies on London's unconditional support to promote its foreign > policy agenda within Europe. > > The long-planned summit initially was meant to focus on the war > against terrorism and particularly on Iraq. However, the rapidly > escalating Israeli-Palestinian conflict put those discussions on > the back burner. > > A Blair spokesman made clear before the prime minister's > departure for Texas that efforts to revive the Israeli- > Palestinian peace dialogue would dominate the summit. "At > Crawford we will try to work out a way to get the political > process restarted," the spokesman said, Agence France-Presse > reported April 5. Blair himself set the stage for a joint > announcement on the Middle East, telling reporters aboard his > plane that, "we will obviously be looking at ideas that can lead > to a cease-fire," according to the Associated Press. > > But after two days of meetings, no such plan or announcement > came. The emphasis -- at least publicly -- was on Iraq instead, > with Blair making his strongest statement to date in support of a > regime change. > > Government spin-meisters clearly wanted coverage to focus on what > Bush and Blair agreed to regarding Iraq, rather than what was not > agreed regarding Israel. That focus was evident in subsequent > headlines: "Blair Warns of Regime Change in Iraq," The > Independent trumpeted, while in the Financial Times an April 8 > headline read, "Bush and Blair say Saddam must be removed." > > Immediate action on Iraq is clearly not on the table, however. In > a pre-summit interview with British ITV, Bush said there were "no > immediate plans" for action against Iraq and that no action is > being contemplated until late 2002 or early 2003, The Guardian > reported. Although Washington has refused to link action in Iraq > with a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Bush did > say that any action might have to be further put off unless the > Israelis and Palestinians begin negotiating. Blair too has > emphasized the need to quiet the storm in Israel before any > action can be taken in Iraq. > > The divide between the European and U.S. approaches to the > Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been growing over the last two > weeks, with European leaders criticizing perceived waffling by > Washington or complaining that Sharon has been given too much > leeway in the occupied territories. This was punctuated April 2, > when European Commission President Romano Prodi called U.S. > mediation efforts a failure and urged Washington to step aside, > allowing an international coalition to take the lead. Though > Blair has been more constrained, he too has called for a tougher > line against Israel. > > Blair de-emphasized the Israeli conflict in his keynote speech > April 7, avoiding the issue until more than halfway through his > speech and mentioning it only after first discussing the need for > a regime change in Iraq. And though he backed Bush's decision to > send U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell to Israel, he also > offered more nuanced comments on the need for more direct and > sustained involvement by the United States. > > "Engagement in the world ... not isolationism from it, is the > hardheaded pragmatism for the 21st Century," Blair said. The > prime minister spoke of the success in Kosovo and the need for > "sustained focus, effort and engagement" in Kashmir. > > These statements seem to carry an implicit warning that the > United States must insert itself more forcefully to halt the > Israeli advance into the territories -- a message that would be > supported by the rest of Europe but not well received by > Washington, especially coming from Blair. > ___________________________________________________________________ > > > <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< SEND THIS TO A FRIEND! >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> > > Did you like this analysis? Then forward it to a friend! > > Got this from a friend? 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