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http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jdw/jdw020418_1_n.shtml NATO set for 'big bang' -If realised, the move would vastly enlarge NATO's sphere of influence and responsibility, with major extensions of territory in eastern Europe and of coastline along the Baltic and Black seas, as well as reducing the number of 'buffer states' between the alliance and Russia to just two, Ukraine and Belarus. -However, expanding only NATO's southern region would not satisfy the strategic interests of NATO's northern allies, particularly Germany and Norway but also Poland, which was among the three new members added in March 1999. By Luke Hill, JDW NATO/EU Affairs Correspondent, Brussels Uniting swiftly in traditional NATO fashion, the 19 allies have leapt in a span of several months from publicly being willing to admit one or possibly no new countries at their Prague summit in November 2002 to recently coalescing around a 'big bang' approach that will likely see invitations issued to six or seven new members. If realised, the move would vastly enlarge NATO's sphere of influence and responsibility, with major extensions of territory in eastern Europe and of coastline along the Baltic and Black seas, as well as reducing the number of 'buffer states' between the alliance and Russia to just two, Ukraine and Belarus. No final candidate list has been drawn up by NATO, and few allies are likely to speak in terms of final decisions until later this quarter, specifically at the NATO foreign ministers' semi-annual informal ministerial to be held in Reykjavik, Iceland, on 14-15 May. By then, NATO foreign ministers and, subsequently, their defence counterparts, in early June hope to be well co-ordinated on the best way to convince member governments and populations of the logic and benefits of a major NATO expansion. If anyone was asked in December about enlargement and the Prague summit, responses usually focused on the most obvious and easy answers: Slovenia and possibly Slovakia. Slovenia is arguably the most-ready potential member and is strategically well located, but will likely join Iceland and Luxembourg in making little significant military contribution to the alliance. The idea of adding the Baltics had seemed risky vis-�-vis Russia, and also had an internal dimension within the alliance. If only the Baltics, Slovenia and Slovakia were to be invited, it would run counter to the aims of southern European allies, notably France, Italy, Hungary, Greece and Turkey to extend membership to the strategically located Bulgaria and Romania, a move considered much more palatable to Russia. However, expanding only NATO's southern region would not satisfy the strategic interests of NATO's northern allies, particularly Germany and Norway but also Poland, which was among the three new members added in March 1999. So the major question to arise in this debate is whether NATO is ready to add so many members and incur possible wrath from Moscow by adding the Baltics, to achieve something more than a largely symbolic enlargement encompassing only Slovenia and Slovakia. However, Moscow now appears ready to accept the Baltic states joining NATO. Its diplomats currently are preparing to take this in stride and at the same time press firmly for a more substantive and positive relationship with the West by insisting on "being able to discuss all non-Article 5 questions around the table of 20", including counter-terrorism, joint peacekeeping and missile defence, a Russian official told JDW. Thus, the 'big bang' approach not only has become acceptable to Moscow but has become the most acceptable strategy for the alliance itself. __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Yahoo! Tax Center - online filing with TurboTax http://taxes.yahoo.com/ --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: [email protected] EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9617B Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
