HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------- Date:18 April 2002
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Follows the analyse:
Are Serbia and
Montenegro Facing Long Term Instability?
ARTEL
GEOPOLITIKA
17 April 2002 After eighteen months of the rule
of Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) in Serbia the achieved results
and future development of the situation could be summarized with
some certitude. When the results are concerned, they are far from
expected- on which agree not only the majority of the citizens but
many in political tops, even between leading personalities of the
coalition on the power DOS. Although that question deserve much more
detailed analyze we will enumerate just some few evaluations:
- Instead of strong financial
injection of the West we get just the writing off of the already
controversial rates of interest on the main debt of Yugoslavia toward Paris
and London clubs;
- In the absence of the promised foreign economic help for the revitalization of the economy, the power undertook a radical introduction of the fiscal givings from the already impoverished population in order to collect some minimum of funds for the regular fulfilling of the existing obligations as revenues, pensions, obligations toward foreign countries (gas, electricity and other) that all provoked not only a quick fall of the living standard of citizens, but also the paralyzing of a number of companies that already survived with difficulties; - Instead of the quick and evident increase, come a precipitate all of the already law living standard of the citizens. The prices enormously increased, the unreal rate of currency exchange is pumping the last home reserves of the currency from the population, the massive number of workers is fired, in the big number of the companies is a paralyze of the work, the successful companies are sold to foreign buyers cheap and without any economic justificationand, instead of the revitalization of the banking system, the closing of the biggest ones; - Political and economic reforms,
promised during the election campaign, are far away of the view. Instead of that
DOS not only
accepted in the totality the anterior system and the instruments of power , but use it even more consequently that the anterior power. The laws they criticized before the election are fully implemented and are not in change, the campaign of the civil disobedience before the election is forgot and the new power is requesting the absolute civil obedience , instead of the transparency of the political processes and decisions, there are secret agreements between them and with the world, without informing nobody- sometimes even not the President of the state. - Instead of the instauration of
the cooperation with the world on the equal footing and useful for both
sides, continue the practice
of blackmailing, conditioning and pressuring toward FRY (Serbia and Montenegro) from USA and its Western allies. - Instead that FRY (Serbia and Montenegro) , after the pulling down of the previous power, get support in relation of the come back of Kosovo and Metohija under the sovereignity of Serbia and FRY, and widen the field of the cooperation with Republika Srpska, as they are doing with all other neighboring countries, USA and their allies are dragging further moves in the way of the full independence of Kosovo. & Metohia from Serbia and FRY, and are making pressure to oblige FRY to renounce to any cooperation with Republika Srpska.; - Instead of entering, as it was
expected after the pulling down of the previous power, Serbia and
Montenegro , thorough democratic dialogue and the respect for the interests
of both republics ,in even closer end more efficient modern state union, which
bases would be a same ethnic roots, religion, language, symbols
and historical closeness, there is even bigger grade of separation in
what, again, important role goes to USA and Western countries. Gradually is
opening the question of Vojvodina, together with some other
politico-territorial questions in the framework of Serbia;
- Instead that the country runs,
after 05 October 2000 certainly some new policy, but the policy of the
realization of its own
national and state interests, the power is realizing in panic all the orders of the Western powers, even against the interests of the country and its dignity; - Instead that the new power
fulfils its electoral promises and introduce in the political life
of Serbia a democracy, not only through rhetoric, but also in
the practice, the decisions of the DOS are implemented through
over voting in the Parliament, adoption of the illegal regulation and
special lows, political opponents are publicly denounced, accused without
evidences, imprisoned in investigation jails over any legal term and
without issuing the accusation and etc. <br>
- Instead of the introduction of the rule of quality, professionalism, capacity and experience, are introduced, much more than in the period of the rule of the previous regime, nepotism, party affiliation and voluntarism; - Instead of the joint struggle of
the whole DOS for the implementation of the promises on reform of political
and economic system, on the political scene of Serbia are ruling conflicts
of different ractions of DOS where the strongest is between Democratic
Party
of Serbia (DSS) and Democratic Party (DS), scandals (Vuk Obradovic, Momcilo Perisic and other), mutual accusations of some leaders of DOS without any restraint or good manners, crime is not diminishing but even flourishing, etc… Everything mentioned is only the
part of possible evaluation of the rule of DOS in the previous eighteen
months and a lot of other
things could be said. All that drastically diminished the popularity of the ruling coalition in spite the fact that there is still a lot of citizen who believe, or would like to believe, in the promises given to them when the actual power was in opposition. As consequence of everything presented the situation has complicated a lot, the obligation gathered, many expectation deceived, and in the next period the actual situation can't last for long time, in first place because of some blockade of the system of decision as result of the every day more clear and deep conflict between DSS and DS. On the other side, after a long
period of lobbying for the independence of Montenegro, Milo Djukanovic was
"obliged" by the Western allies to accept the continuation of the life in
the joint state with Serbia for new three years and to renounce to the
referendum for the independece during that period. It is clear that for the
West it was not convenient in this moment to resolve the question
of the final status of Montenegro because that could impose,
probably to soon, the question of the final status of Kosovo &
Metohija and even Republika Srpska. The West is probably counting
that in three years he will so much weakened Serbia that it would
be possible to finalize its dismemberment without resistance,
through the separation of Montenegro, Kosovo & Metohija and even
Vojvodina.
Anyhow, the retreat under the pressure of the West and the postponing of the independence brought to Montenegro new tensions and weakened the coalition for its independence. New relations both in Serbia and
Montenegro, in other words changed ratings of the political parties and the
division of the power, and a new role of the Federal state, in the
light of the changes after the assignment of the Agreement on new relations
between Serbia and Montenegro, are imposing the necessity to
adapt those changes to the look of the new federal government that, this
time, should much more reflect the real rapports of forces in both
republics.
Everything stressed indicates that in the next future, without any doubt, new elections in both republics would be indispensable , which should have direct reflect on the bodies of the joint state, as much as it exist. What those election could
bring?
In Serbia the wining coalition
from 2000 lost a lot of its popularity. Furthermore, it divided and it is
realistic to expect that in the next elections there would be no
coalition DOS, or not as it was in 2000. On the other side, Serbian
Socialist Party (SPS), as the strongest opposition party, still can't
recover and fight with internal problems. However, despite that, its
rating is slowly growing, in first place because of the
disappointment of the electorate with the results of the rule of DOS and
the behavior of its leaders, but not enough to, in this moment,
realistically pretend to the retake of the power. Serbian Radical Party
(SRS) has always its electors and will surely , if nothing else,
take a number of votes from SPS or DOS. Serbian Renewal Party (SPO) is
slowly coming back on the political scene but the impression is that , in
this moment, there can't represent a serious concurrent for the take of
power, even in any possible coalition. Other parties are, it seems, marginal.
In Montenegro persist the division that would be demonstrated once again on the next election in which the winner would be decided, again, with few votes of difference. Anyhow, the political rupture of the public opinion will last. From the arguments elaborated, it is clear thet the next elections in Serbia would bring, however, a new quality that is the division of the power. It is hard to believe that the actual power would continue to be in the position to so easily, like it is now, do what ever he wants and not to respect anybody. It is probable that the biggest number of wotes gets DSS, but that would be with a short difference from DS and SPS. A number of votes would go to SRS and SPO. Having in mind how the things are now, it is not realistic to believe that any coalition in the triangle DSS, DS, SPS is possible. DSS and DS are in an open conflict and both of then doesn't want to enter in the coalition with SPS because of ideological reasons (DSS) or big difference of programs (DS). So, it would be very hard to form a new government. That's can provoke a long time instability on the political scene of Serbia, the blockades of the attempts of the formation of government, often falls of government, the paralyze of the work of state institutions and even bigger degradation of the country on internal and external domain. When it is question about
Montenegro, the actual divisions will probably last, which would provoke
the paralyze of the work of the government in many fields.
Such a situation in both republics would result with difficulties to form the joint institutions of the new established union of Serbia and Montenegro, with the paralyze of its institutions that would put in evidence , even more, the interference of the West and its arbitration in the internal affairs of the country. The decomposition of the state and its institutions would continue, the same as the weakening of the economy and financial wealth of the country as the whole, the protests of the citizens, workers and Syndicates would spread and grow and could be expected massive social unrests. Such a situation would be just another excuse for the West to avoid to support financially the country to go out of the crises that would be every day bigger and deeper. The destruction of the state and its institution would incite separatist on South Serbia, on Kosovo & Metohija, in Vojvodina, and maybe in Raska, to break some part of Serbia . Republic of Srpska would be under strong pressures to disappear and incorporate in Bosnia and Hertzegovine under Muslim domination, through the revision of the Dayton accords. That order of events is a very
real one but not the obligatory. Different development could happen in two
circumstances- if on
the next elections the results are different that here anticipated; or in case that in the international plan there would be big changes in the rapport of forces that would open the possibilities of different outcome of the situation in our region. In any case, having in mind all objective data, it is hard to expect in the short time period any improvement in the country and its relations with the worlds. Contrary to that even worse political, economic and social crises are expected. --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: [email protected] EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9617B Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================ |
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