HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------- STRATFOR Partisan U.S. Politics Could Worsen Latin American
Crises The recent political turmoil in Venezuela has given Democratic congressional leaders in Washington an opportunity to create a divisive issue ahead of November's mid-term congressional elections. With the economy on the rebound, Democrats are looking at the Bush administration's foreign policy. The party likely will exploit three crises in Latin America -- Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela -- as evidence of the administration's incompetence. Analysis Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-CT), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, narcotics and Peace Corps, reportedly plans to schedule hearings soon on the recent political upheaval in Venezuela. Subcommittee sources tell STRATFOR that Dodd will look into allegations that the Bush administration was involved in, or had advance knowledge of, the April 11-14 military coup against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The planned hearings will unfold over the next several weeks or months against a backdrop of continuing political instability in Venezuela, deepening economic collapse and hyperinflation in Argentina and the likely election of Alvaro Uribe Velez as Colombia's next president. While the hearings likely will conclude that the Bush administration played no role whatsoever in the coup that briefly toppled Chavez, Dodd could seek to portray the worsening economic and political crises in Latin America as evidence of the incompetence of Bush's Latin America policy team. Democratic and Republican sources in Congress tell STRATFOR that Dodd's hearings will have two main objectives: to discredit Otto Reich, assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, and to create a wedge issue that Democrats can leverage to their advantage in November's mid-term congressional elections. Since the rebounding U.S. economy has deprived Democrats of an effective campaign issue, the Bush administration's foreign policy will come under partisan congressional fire. The administration's supporters in Congress likely will counterattack by waving the red flag on national security concerns in Latin America, to which Dodd is particularly vulnerable. However, the hearings on Venezuela could distract the Bush administration's Latin America policy team from the multiple crises requiring their close attention. Moreover, any increase in partisan bickering over Latin America policy ahead of mid-term elections could hinder the Bush administration's efforts to manage the economic and political crises consuming Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela simultaneously. Additionally, if Uribe Velez is elected president of Colombia May 26 -- as is probable, given his commanding lead over Liberal Party rival Horacio Serpa -- Democratic support for expanded U.S. military aid to Colombia likely will weaken or be withdrawn altogether. Unless Uribe Velez can prove convincingly that he has never had ties either to paramilitaries or drug traffickers, Dodd and other Democratic leaders can be expected to resist Bush administration attempts to increase U.S. military aid to Colombia -- especially between now and November. Similarly, the Bush administration's efforts to advance other important Latin America policy initiatives -- including Senate approval of trade promotion authority, renewal of the Andean Trade Preferences Act, and an immigration deal granting amnesty to millions of Mexicans and Central Americans living illegally in the United States -- also are likely to be delayed this year by partisan bickering. In fact, the Bush administration may have as much, if not more, difficulty selling trade and immigration initiatives to some Republicans in Congress this year as it will have with Democrats. While the Bush administration is distracted by election-motivated tussles over Latin America policy, the economic and political crises in Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela likely will get much worse. Three of Latin America's most significant economies are under extraordinary duress and at great risk of a near total collapse of their democratic institutions and procedures. Moreover, it is also likely that this deterioration will become more pronounced across the region -- especially in countries like Bolivia, Brazil and Ecuador, where presidential elections are scheduled in June and October. Argentina's economic crisis is now so severe that even if the International Monetary Fund comes to its swift aid with billions of dollars in fresh loans, which is unlikely, its economy will shrink by up to 15 percent, unemployment will shoot above 30 percent and a hyperinflationary burst likely will trigger violent social disturbances in coming months. Even if President Eduardo Duhalde remains in office until presidential elections in September 2003 - which is doubtful, given the imminent collapse of the country's financial system -- Argentina's next government could distance the country economically and politically from the United States. In fact, many Latin Americans perceive the IMF's refusal so far to bail out Argentina as proof that the Bush administration is not as interested in the region as it professes to be. In Colombia, the likely election of Uribe Velez would automatically raise the country's political conflict to a higher, more violent level. The Colombian government already has accumulated significant evidence that the FARC is trying to launch an urban terror offensive involving bombs and assassinations in major cities like Bogota, Cali and Medellin. The FARC's urban offensive, and the counteroffensive by the paramilitary United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), could engulf Colombia's cities before Uribe Velez's inauguration on Aug. 7. Given the persistent allegations that Uribe Velez has ties to the AUC and drug traffickers, plus the fact that about three-dozen recently elected Colombian congressmen have been linked to the AUC by Colombian government intelligence sources, the Bush administration likely will have difficulty persuading the U.S. Congress to expand military aid to that country. In fact, Democratic congressional leaders likely will make the Bush administration's Colombia policy another bone of contention in the mid-term elections, possibly using Dodd's hearings on Venezuela to spin out Colombia as a parallel issue. This would hinder the administration's efforts to expand U.S. military aid to Colombia and might even weaken congressional support for the counter-drug military assistance, already approved under Plan Colombia, after current President Andres Pastrana's term in office comes to an end in August. --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: [email protected] EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9617B Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================ |
