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STRATFOR Venezuela: Alleged Paramilitary Force Most Likely Fictitious ========================================= 28 June 2002 Summary A videotape released earlier this week alleges that a 2,200-strong paramilitary group is forming in Venezuela to fight Colombian rebels. Such a development would be dramatic for Venezuela, which has no history of paramilitary activity. The group is more likely a fiction created to put more pressure on embattled President Hugo Chavez. Analysis A clandestine paramilitary organization calling itself the United Self Defense Forces of Venezuela (AUV) announced its existence June 26 in a video broadcast by RCN television network in Bogota. The group's putative leader, using the pseudonym Commander Antonio del Billar, said the AUV's mission is to "expel Colombian narco-guerrillas from Venezuelan territory," according to the videotape broadcast by RCN. The spokesman said the AUV has 2,200 members drawn mainly from Venezuela's National Armed Forces (FAN). He also said the group would receive "logistical and military" support from the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) paramilitary, which has an estimated 10,000 fighters deployed throughout Colombia. However, the AUV has not attacked any Colombian rebel units in Venezuelan territory yet. The group might be a real paramilitary organization, especially since many Venezuelan ranchers have been affected by violence from across the border. But the situation has not reached the level at which such a paramilitary could be organized and funded. The idea of the AUV is more likely the invention of a handful of individuals or groups bitterly opposed to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's regime and who are engaging in psychological warfare in an effort to heighten tensions in the country. During the 1960s, Venezuela's government and armed forces battled domestic insurgencies that were supported logistically and financially by Cuban leader Fidel Castro. But the country has no history of organized right-wing paramilitary activity. Nevertheless, during the past year, Venezuelan ranching associations in border states like Apure, Tachira and Zulia have been warning with growing insistence that some ranchers are recruiting and arming private security forces to protect themselves against kidnapping and extortion attempts by Colombian guerrillas. These warnings have coincided with multiple reports of more incursions by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebel groups into Venezuela. In fact, Caracas dailies El Universal and El Nacional, as well as Bogota daily El Tiempo, have published several reports since mid-2001 confirming the existence of FARC and ELN base camps inside Venezuela. Earlier this year, the FARC's 33rd Front also launched attacks against Colombian targets from a staging area inside Venezuelan territory and then retreated to Venezuela to escape pursuing Colombian army and AUC forces. Although Chavez repeatedly has denied that he supports the FARC and ELN politically, his actions since assuming the presidency in early 1999 show that he sympathizes with the Colombian guerrillas in their nearly 4-decade-old conflict against their country's government. For example, Chavez has lashed out publicly at what he calls Colombia's "rancid oligarchy," and his government provides security and vehicles to FARC and ELN emissaries when they are on official visits in Venezuela. Unofficially, the Chavez regime also has ignored the mounting number of attacks by FARC and ELN units against Venezuelan ranchers near the border while deep budget cuts have significantly deteriorated the military's combat readiness Chavez's flirtations with the FARC and ELN, the military's budget woes and the fury of ranchers who feel threatened by their president's redistribution plans for rural land have promoted a sense of growing instability in Venezuela's border territories, an image that those behind the AUV videotape are seeking to intensify to undermine his support. This only adds to the pressure on a president who, after having already been removed briefly from the presidency earlier this year, still faces strong opposition within the military and middle class. --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: [email protected] EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.bacIlu Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
