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> ___________________________________________________________________ > > > S T R A T F O R > > THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY > > http://www.stratfor.com > ___________________________________________________________________ > > > The Mystery of the Suspected Israeli Traitors > =============================== > Summary > > Five Israelis were arrested by the Israeli government on July 18, > charged with selling ammunition to a Palestinian paramilitary > organization. Four of the five were serving in the Israel Defense > Forces, in which one was a major. Given the relatively small amounts of > money that appear to be involved, their alleged actions are difficult > to understand. This inevitably raises speculation as to whether other > motives may have been involved. > > Analysis > > On July 18, the Israeli government announced the arrest of five > Israelis charged with selling about 60,000 rounds of ammunition to a > representative of Tanzim, a Palestinian paramilitary organization > linked to Yasser Arafat's Fatah group. According to leaks by Israeli > police, the sales went substantially beyond just ammunition and > included weapons and other military equipment. > > Sources quoted by the Israeli press predict these arrests represent > "just the tip of the iceberg" and that additional, even more shocking > evidence will be revealed shortly. The Israelis also reported arresting > a Palestinian from the nearby Palestinian town of Tarqumiya who acted > as an intermediary between the Israelis and Tanzim. > > Two of the arrested, brothers Moshe and Nadav Cohen, come from the > settlement of Telem, on the West Bank, near Hebron. Another two, Roi > Amar and Oded Mulai, come from the nearby settlement of Adora. All but > Mulai are active-duty personnel in the Israel Defense Forces, and Amar > was reported to be a member of an elite unit of the border patrol. A > fifth detainee, Kobi Uliel, was a reserve major in the IDF and lived in > southern Israel. A sixth person, Sela Amar, Roi Amar's brother, was > arrested but released. > > There have been thefts of weapons and munitions in the past, and the > trend has been intensifying. Thirty-six cases of theft had been > uncovered in the past six months. However, most of the thefts were > carried out by Israeli criminals who on occasion sold weapons to > Palestinian criminals. This was the first case revealed in which > active-duty soldiers, including officers, stole munitions and sold them > directly to a Palestinian group. To compound the shock, Adora, a > settlement of fewer than 200 Israelis and the home of the Amars and > Mulai, was the target of an attack by Palestinian gunmen on May 27. > Four Israelis were killed, including a 5-year-old girl. > > There is a double shock to Israel here. First, the idea that residents > of a settlement might have sold weapons and ammunition that killed > their neighbors is stunning. Second, the idea that active-duty Israeli > soldiers had, in effect, collaborated with Fatah's paramilitaries in > order to make money strikes at the very heart of Israel's self- > understanding. There have been espionage and smuggling cases in the > past. About five years ago, an Israeli had been arrested for selling > chemicals to Iran that could be used for chemical warfare. In the > 1950s, there was a famous case in which an Israeli was found to be > spying for the Soviets. > > However, such cases are few and far between. Israel sees itself as an > embattled nation in which the fate of each individual depends on the > loyalty and sacrifice of other individuals. Almost all Israelis serve > in the military and are indoctrinated there, and in school, with the > idea of shared fate. In very large and powerful countries, such > betrayals are seen as ultimately abstract and impersonal. In Israel, > they are seen as concrete and personal. A theme repeated by Israelis in > the wake of this arrest was that the bullets stolen and sold by Amar > and Mulai might have been the ones that killed their neighbors. The > intimate connection between betrayal and the fate of loved ones was > always thought to have made such betrayal impossible. > > If the Israeli police are correct and the charges are proven in court, > then this sort of betrayal is not only possible, but has been going on > for several years. Indeed, it may explain some of the operations > carried out by the Palestinians of late, which involved the use of > Israeli uniforms and weapons. Tanzim in particular appears to have been > tasked with these sorts of missions. > > Unlike Hamas and the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, Tanzim has not been > involved in suicide bombings. Rather, it has focused on more > conventional attacks on Israeli settlements and military targets, > striking and attempting to withdraw. Tanzim may also have been involved > in multiple attacks on Israeli armored vehicles using anti-tank mines > and missiles. > > The question at the time was where the Palestinians had obtained such > munitions, and the Israelis assumed they had gotten them from outside > sources. Now, the question becomes whether at least some of these > weapons originated in Israel, stolen by Israeli soldiers and sold to > the Palestinians. > > One explanation for all this is that a profound rot has infected > Israel. At least five Israelis are being accused of involvement in a > multi-year operation, and Israeli officials are clearly indicating that > more may be involved. This is not, therefore, one or two people, but a > broader ring that was able to carry out treasonable activities for > several years. > > Perhaps this is not moral rot, in the sense that only a very few > Israelis are involved, but it certainly represents another Israeli > intelligence failure of substantial proportions. The Israelis are > involved in a war with the Palestinians, and choking off weapons > supplies to the Palestinians is obviously critical. Israeli > intelligence knew that the Palestinians were obtaining weapons: They > said so repeatedly and publicly. > > Yet they were not able to detect this operation. Perhaps it was beyond > their imagination that settlers on the West Bank could have been > engaged in what is, after all, self-destructive behavior. But > intelligence officers are supposed to think about things that go beyond > their imagination. It's their job. > > There is something that remains unsatisfying about this story. At least > five people were involved in the operation. It was reported that they > were paid 12 cents per round. That comes to $7,200 for 60,000 rounds, > or $1,440 for each of five individuals. To endanger one's family -- not > to mention commit treason -- for $1,440 seems odd. > > Obviously, more weapons and equipment were transferred than we have so > far been told about, but to make it really profitable, very large > amounts would have to have been transferred. That means that more > people would have been involved and that the amount each individual > received might be higher. But these amounts are not going to make > anyone wealthy, so it is very hard to imagine that those involved were > doing this for money. > > Adora and Telem are sister settlements located near Hebron. Unlike > other settlements in the area, Adora and Telem are not settled by the > most extreme religious activists such as those that have settled other > towns. In general, Adora and Telem have been settled by people looking > for inexpensive housing and prepared to incur the dangers of life near > Hebron in return. Certainly they may still have developed an > ideological or economic attachment to the settlements. They were > settled there and wanted to remain. > > Under Ehud Barak, the viability of both settlements was cast into > doubt. Under the contemplated withdrawals currently being discussed, > both settlements would have been left in place but would have been > completely surrounded by territory under Palestinian control. Depending > on developing circumstances, the settlements might or might not have > been able to survive; most likely they would not. This was one of the > reasons that Israel's opposition to Barak opposed the Wye Plantation > outlines for a territorial settlement. It was certainly one of the > reasons why the residents of Adora and Telem opposed them. > > It was about this time -- the dates are still unclear -- that the > accused supposedly began stealing munitions and selling them to the > Palestinians. Thus, an alternative theory emerges for which there is no > evidence but which cannot be dismissed out of hand. Namely, that the > conspirators had political motivations rather than financial ones. > > There was intense opposition in Israel both to the Oslo Accords and the > follow-on peace plans. The argument was that the Palestinians were not > genuinely committed to peace and that any territorial concession would > be used for later operations against Israel. In its most extreme form, > there was a belief that implementing the Oslo Accords would lead to the > destruction of Israel. > > Former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was shot and killed by a man who > held these views. Whether reasonable or not, the view was sincerely > held by a substantial number of Israelis. Nowhere were these views more > widely held than among the settlers on the West Bank. Apart from the > strategic arguments, the settlers had religious reasons to oppose the > agreements. They also had economic reasons. They felt that their homes > were in jeopardy. > > For this faction, war between the Palestinians and the Israelis was > inevitable. If the Oslo Accords were implemented, the war would occur > under the worst possible circumstances for the Israelis. Thus, if war > was inevitable, it made sense to this faction that it come sooner > rather than later -- certainly before any settlements or territory were > given away and before Israel's strategic position deteriorated. > > The problem was that the Israeli government was not prepared to launch > this war and that the Palestinians did not have the wherewithal to > launch it themselves. It follows logically that if the Palestinians > were given the wherewithal, then the Palestinians might voluntarily or > under pressure trigger operations. If they did, then the ability of the > Israeli government to pursue a settlement with the Palestinians would > dissolve and the settlements, although embattled, would continue to > exist. > > Obviously, this posed an enormous risk to the settlements, since the > Palestinians might strike at them. However, if you are operating under > the assumption that a peace treaty will lead to national catastrophe, > then this might be the kind of risk you would be prepared to incur. > > Let us emphasize again: This is pure speculation. We do not know the > motivation of these men. There are two theories on the table. In one, a > group of settlers serving in the Israeli army, including a field-grade > officer, sold material to the Palestinians for a relatively small > amount of money, obviously aware that this transfer might endanger the > lives of their families and friends. They carry out these operations > for years without detection by Israeli security forces. > > In the other theory, a group of settlers, committed to saving their > homes and protecting their country, conspired to arm the Palestinians > in the hopes that the Palestinians would use those weapons against > Israel, thereby aborting a peace process that they believed would end > in the destruction of their country. > > The problem we have is that neither theory is ultimately satisfying. A > single deranged man might give weapons to people who might kill your > family, but it is difficult to imagine at least five people capable of > functioning in the Israeli army being so callous and stupid. A > political conspiracy is possible, but it is not clear why they would > have thought that selling weapons to the Palestinians would trigger the > war they wanted -- if they wanted a war. The Palestinians had other > sources of weapons, and merely getting weapons wouldn't trigger a war. > > So, there are now two bad theories to explain an incomprehensible > event. It is not clear which one will triumph or if a third will > emerge. But whichever it is, it will no doubt cause a massive crisis of > confidence in Israel. The core belief of the Israelis has always been > the loyalty and solidarity of the Jews to one another. Rabin's > assassination stunned Israel because it violated that foundational > belief. This event, perhaps as much as or more than the assassination, > will create another crisis of confidence. > > ___________________________________________________________________ > --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.bacIlu Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
