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STRATFOR > Syria, Israel and U.S. Iraq Strategy > ======================== > Summary > > The Israeli government has threatened strikes on military targets > in Syria in response to further cross-border attacks by the > Hezbollah militant group. Israel is trying to make clear the > internal risks Syrian President Bashar Assad will face if his > country's military capabilities are destroyed. This also would > serve U.S. interests by helping to neutralize the Syrian threat > before a possible campaign against Iraq. > > Analysis > > Syria is coming under increased pressure over its policy toward > Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah. A recent U.N. report on > Syrian policy in Lebanon criticized the Lebanese government's > unwillingness to assert its authority over the southern part of > the country, and by default permitting Hezbollah to continue > cross-border attacks against Israel. Syria's deputy ambassador to > the United Nations criticized the report as "one-sided," daily > newspaper Al Hayat reported. > > Syria exercises substantial control over the Lebanese government > and apparently has decided to support Hezbollah operations in > southern Lebanon. For example, the Sunday Times of London > reported the weekend of July 20 that Syrian President Bashar > Assad recently ordered his officers to use the military's arsenal > to supply Hezbollah directly. This announcement has put the > Syrians on a collision course with the Israelis. > > The Times also reported that Israel has now delivered three > warnings to the Syrian government concerning Hezbollah's > operations. Two were transmitted through the United States, the > other through Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. > > The last warning was the most ominous. The Israeli government > reportedly told the Syrians that if Hezbollah again attacks a > target inside Israel, retaliation will be taken against military > targets in Syria. Specifically, Israel would attack an armored > brigade in southern Syria from the air, followed by artillery > fire and perhaps an air-mobile assault. The goal would be the > complete destruction of a Syrian brigade containing up to 100 > tanks. > > This threat is not trivial. Syria used to be able to rely on the > Soviet Union for quick military re-supplies, but that is no > longer possible. Therefore, the loss of a Syrian armored brigade > would constitute a serious blow to the country's military > capability. And if Israel can destroy one armored brigade, it can > destroy more. > > Such a loss would not only pose a strategic challenge to Syria, > it also could threaten young Assad's government. His credibility > as a leader still has not been fully tested, and there are those > in the government who do not take him seriously. Since the > military is the foundation of Syria's state, if Assad puts the > country into a situation where its military capability is > seriously degraded, the consequences could be severe. > > The Israelis clearly feel that Assad does not understand the > risks he is running. That is why they have signaled to him so > explicitly, virtually revealing the broad outlines of their > operational plan. This serves a psychological purpose as well, > emphasizing the imbalance between the military powers of the two > countries. Israel is saying that it does not need the element of > surprise to have its way with Syria's army. > > Israel wants Syria to stop Hezbollah's attacks in order to avoid > being drawn back into the endless and costly game it tried to > give up when it withdrew from Lebanon in 2000. The implicit > understanding between Israel and Syria regarding the Jewish > state's withdrawal was that Damascus, via the Lebanese > government, would take responsibility for controlling Hezbollah. > > In return Israel would recognize Lebanon as being in Syria's > sphere of influence. Israel does not want to open another > military front in the north and it is genuinely hoping that > Assad, after looking into the abyss, will assert himself. > > However, possible future U.S. military operations against Iraq > also must be factored into the situation. As it currently plays > out, the United States has two geographical platforms from which > to stage an operation against Baghdad. Turkey is the most > important but also the most reluctant. Jordan is seemingly more > willing, but this option poses logistical problems. > > Both also have beef with Syria. At various points in history, the > Syrians have moved against the Hashemite kingdom in Jordan. The > Turks, charging Syrian meddling in the affairs of the Kurdish > ethnic group, threatened war against Syria several years ago. > Neither country is prepared to play Washington's game unless the > threat from Syria is neutralized. > > For its part, the United States is engaged in an extensive post- > Sept. 11 courtship of Syria. There are indications that > Washington is still trying to lock down an assurance from > Damascus in the event of a war on Iraq. The U.S. government also > recently has sent several diplomatic envoys -- including U.S. > Secretary of State Colin Powell -- to the country. > > In the event of a war with Baghdad, it is highly probable that > the Syrians would not become engaged -- but the threat would > remain. The United States would be operating with fairly light > forces, and any troop buildup (in Jordan in particular) would be > difficult to secure if the Syrians made a serious attempt at > intervention. > > Although such an outcome is unlikely, Washington's military > planners will not be able to rely solely on a verbal promise from > Syria. They also will seek a means to keep Damascus out of the > conflict entirely. Plan A -- the seduction of Syria by the United > States -- continues. Plan B is the neutralization of Syria > through fear. > > The Israelis are threatening Syria with the destruction of a > substantial part of its armed forces. Israel has its own reasons > for making these threats, but the warnings also serve U.S. > interests. The hope is that Assad, recognizing the imminence of > disaster, will not only agree to rein in Hezbollah, but also will > not interfere with Washington's Iraq plans. > > Israel is not bluffing. It has its hands full with the > Palestinians, and the psychological pressure on the Israeli > public is enormous. It cannot afford a protracted guerrilla war > on its northern flank. Israel likely will strike at Syria and try > to do so decisively. It would be a relief, in a sense, for > Israel's military leadership, as it would represent a return to > the kind of conventional war for which the Israel Defense Force > was trained and at which it excels. > > From the American viewpoint, an Israeli attack on Syria would > pose serious political problems among Arab governments. On the > other hand, these governments are not being very helpful as it > stands right now in dealing with a core American issue: Iraq. > From this perspective, there is not much to lose. > > The worst-case scenario would be a shift in Egypt's position. It > is therefore interesting that, first, Israel turned to Mubarak to > deliver a message to Syria, second, that Mubarak agreed to > deliver it and, third, the Israelis now have made it public that > Mubarak was their messenger. They have done everything possible > to keep Mubarak in place. > > If Assad does not shift his policy, the United States will regard > an Israeli operation against Syria as a necessary part of > American strategy against Iraq. In a way, the U.S. position will > be that the attack was made necessary by the unwillingness of the > Arab governments -- Jordan excepted -- to cooperate in a war > against Iraq. Therefore, the Israeli ultimatum to Syria, whether > it causes the country to change its policies or lose its tanks, > will serve U.S. strategic interests. > > ___________________________________________________________________ --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.bacIlu Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
