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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/DI18Ag01.html Central Asia Russia, US on collision course By Hooman Peimani The September 11 meeting in Moscow of an American State Department delegation with Russian Foreign Ministry officials failed to help the Americans secure Russia's approval of their proposed war against Iraq. Unsurprisingly, the Russians expressed their opposition to such war to the delegation led by John Bolton, the American under-secretary of state. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov warned that a new war in the Persian Gulf could ruin international cooperation against terrorism, while his deputy Vyacheslav Trubnikov stressed that the proposed war was "absolutely unacceptable" for Russia. The surfacing Russian opposition to the American policy towards Iraq, where Russia has vested interests, is yet another clear indication of a growing schism between Russia and the United States and the practical end to an era of cooperation between the two nuclear powers. Undoubtedly, one should expect frequent clashes of interests between the two countries over respected vested interests that are of strategic importance to each side. Russia's arms sales to and non-military nuclear relations with Iran aside, they include the political, economic and security direction of the Central Asian and Caucasian countries and the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). As opposition to an American attack on Iraq has been a well-known Russian stance for some time, the mentioned expression of opposition did not surprise anyone. Russia has clear interests in Iraq, which make it concerned about any development with a destabilizing impact on that country. What gave significance to the event was its revealing of an emerging drastic change in Russian-American relations. In the post-Soviet era, both Russia and the United States have sought to forge tension-free relations, but such relations have gradually changed their cooperative element, especially since the election of President Vladimir Putin. This is not a phenomenon attributable to the personal characteristics of the Russian president, but it is a logical outcome of a changing political, economic and security environment. In the 1990s, the severity of their domestic problems made Russia pursue a very cautious foreign policy. Added to this, Russia's worsening economic situation and its growing need for foreign economic assistance made it more cautious in its dealing with major Western economic powers, including the United States, its hoped-for source of financial assistance and trade. Thus, the need for Western economic assistance and the necessity of a long period of peace for addressing domestic problems motivated Russia not to seek its interests aggressively. Today, Russia has yet to address many domestic issues, but the growing expansion of American political and military influence in its vicinity and its loss of hope of receiving substantial economic assistance from Western countries have convinced it to change its policy of cooperation with the United States. Certain recent events have demonstrated the growing schism between Russia and the US. They have included Russia's expanding economic and political ties with Iran, Iraq and North Korea, the members of the so-called axis of evil, and the worsening Russian-Georgian ties over Georgia's alleged tolerance of the Chechen rebels in its territory. Against this background, the growing schism between Moscow and Washington will likely lead to open conflicts in certain regions of special importance to Russia. Being evident in the recent events, Central Asia and the Caucasus will be two major candidates. As the American economic, political and military presence is expanding in those neighboring regions of which three countries (Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Georgia) are hosting American military forces, fear of encirclement will motivate Russia to use all the means at its disposal to force those countries to limit their ties with the Americans. Added to its geographical proximity, years of membership in the Russian and Soviet political entities have created many ethnic, economic and political ties between Russia and its southern neighbors, which enable the Russians to pressure these countries, in one way or another. Pressure tactics could include Russia's manipulation of their domestic dissident movements and its limiting or blocking the international trade of those countries passing through its territory or through other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. For example, it could seek to prevent or to prolong the construction of the Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline due to begin this week, a feasible scenario given the existence of a wide range of armed dissident and separatist groups in Azerbaijan and Georgia and Russia's opposition to its construction. Military showdowns, as evident in the ongoing conflict over Georgia's Pankisi Valley or in the August naval maneuver in the Caspian Sea, will also be used by Russia in cases when other means prove to be not convincing enough. Russia's use of such measures against countries with close ties with the United States will likely make them appeal to the Americans to help them relieve the Russian pressure. In such case, an American reaction in a military or non-military form will not be surprising, although it will clearly worsen American-Russian relations. As a few predictable non-military measures, the Americans could use their economic power to deny Russia loans or credits from American or American-dominated financial institutions, to create barriers to its trade with them and their allies, and to impose economic sanctions on Russia. They could also block Russia World Trade Organization membership, which it has aspired to for quite some time. Depending on the situation, the Americans could also react by beefing up the military force of the affected country or by expanding their military presence there to deter any possible Russian military operation. Tension and conflict between Russia and the United States in Central Asia and or over Russia's relations with Iran will go beyond those issues to affect negatively their cooperation on certain areas. Therefore, one should expect the rise of conflict over issues on which the two sides have reached an understanding. As NATO considers the membership applications of many eastern European and CIS countries, the NATO eastward expansion will probably become a source of tension when that organization begins its new round of membership selection in the near future. Russia's recent affiliation with NATO will unlikely be a strong incentive for the Russians to avoid conflicts with NATO at the time when American military presence is expanding along their southern borders. The failure of Bolton to secure Russia's approval of the American policy towards Iraq indicated one more time Russia' s emerging conflicts with the United States arising from its national interests. As also reflected in its dealing with Iran and North Korea, Russia is determined to pursue its interests in Iraq and in the rest of the rich Middle East requiring a foreign policy different from the American one seen by many Arabs as hostile and pro-Israeli. Although short-term diplomatic considerations may demand flexibility and compromise in the Russian policy towards the US, the recent history of Russian-American relations leaves little doubt, if any at all, that Moscow is heading towards an era of growing conflict and tension with the Americans over pursuing their national interests. ------------------------------- Dr Hooman Peimani works as an independent consultant with international organizations in Geneva and does research in international relations. _______________________________ �2002 Asia Times Online Co Ltd. http://www.atimes.com/ __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? 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