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http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=2782592&startrow=11&date=2002-10-11&do_alert=0 COMMENTARY THE U.S. AGAINST IRAQ: THE GUN IS COCKED MOSCOW, October 11, 2002. /RIA Novosti political commentator Vladimir Simonov/. - The United States made a decisive and risky step toward the second war with Iraq. Both Houses of the US Congress passed the resolution, which grants President George Bush the authority to start unilateral military actions, if the UN fails to disarm Iraq. The text of the document, approved in the House of Representatives buy the 296-133 vote, gives the President the right to deploy the U.S. Armed Forces "as he deems necessary and appropriate". The purpose of the possible strike, as it's formulated in the resolution, is "to protect the national security of the United States from the persistent threat posed by Iraq and the implementation of all related resolutions adopted by the UN Security Council. President Bush is, apparently, satisfied, but not very much. The final draft of the resolution is much more reserved than the one submitted by the White House, which, in case it was approved, would have given the administration a green light to conduct military operations not only in Iraq, but anywhere in the Middle East. The body of the document contains several stipulations. The President has to exhaust all diplomatic possibilities, including through the UN, before he could give an order to start the war. Bush also must inform the Congress before the attack or not later than 48 hours after the decision to start the war against Iraq has been made, that all peaceful means to solve the conflict have been exhausted. In case of the war, the resolution demands that the President should inform the Congress about its course every 60 days. It's interesting how the present atmosphere in the Congress differs from the debates of 1991, when the legislators decided whether to sanction the U.S. operation in the Persian Gulf. The discussion lasted till late after midnight and reminded of a family quarrel. This time around, the House of Representatives was half-empty on Thursday; the arguments were all too familiar; and the debates were lifeless - the result of voting was predetermined. This contrast shows the image of a new, frightened country where after September 11 every American, including Congressmen, feels vulnerable and unprotected. The feelings that simply didn't exist 12 years ago. This is probably the reason why it's much easier for Bush Jr to march into war than it was for Bush Sr. Bush Junior managed to convince the Congress without using three reasons that his father had to provide in his time -- he doesn't have to prove the direct threat coming from Iraq, he doesn't have to create an international coalition before the start of the war, and he doesn't have to get a UN approval to start military actions against Iraq. The cunning tactics of the White House also played a significant role. The closer it was coming to voting, the less Bush and the members of his administration pressed with arguments. They pushed the demand to topple Saddam Hussein's regime behind, putting in front the suggestion that the strong support of the war coming from the Congress and the UN is the best way to prevent the very war with Iraq. Because in that case Saddam would finally realize that he doesn't have a choice but to give up his weapons of mass destruction. The argument worked, although it raised some serious doubts among the Democrats who split their vote 126 "for"-81"against". The American administration is hoping that the same argument could help eliminate the split in the UN Security Council. The resolution almost pushes Russia, China and France toward a reasonable compromise with the USA. According to a U.S. high-ranking official, "the international community realizes now that the United States speaks with one voice". Washington, waiting nervously for the results of the meeting between Tony Blair and Vladimir Putin in Moscow, hopes that all five permanent members of the Council will approve, without any abstentions, the new UN Security Council resolution, which imposes a much stricter regime of military inspection of Iraq. After all, Washington can have much more freedom to act unilaterally from now on. The resolution adopted by the Congress permits Bush to enter the war in order to implement "all relevant UN resolutions", and not particularly the one adopted only recently. After the voting, many Americans are feeling a certain mixture of moral emptiness and sharp anxiety. They keep asking themselves whether it might turn out to be a new Vietnam? The letter to the Congress, written by the CIA Director George Tenet, provided a new reason for such uncertainty among the American public. It was declassified right before the voting on the Iraqi resolution and surprisingly stated that, according to the American intelligence sources, Saddam Hussein didn't have any plans of a terrorist attack against the United States. At the same time, according to the same sources, the risk that Saddam would use weapons of mass destruction in case if the U.S strike against Iraq has an almost 100 percent probability. Therefore, the resolution passed by the Congress, as well as the overall Bush's rhetoric, in reality, brings the mankind much closer to the very encounter with horrible gases and germs which the U.S. President allegedly attempts to prevent. --------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.therussiajournal.com The Russia Journal October 12, 2002 Healthy-looking Yeltsin condemns Bush on Iraq BERLIN (Reuters) - Former Russian President Boris Yeltsin strongly condemned U.S. President George W. Bush's policy towards Baghdad on Sunday and said he saw no danger from Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. "I consider (Bush's) whole policy unacceptable," Yeltsin told Reuters as he left a Berlin hospital after undergoing a heart check-up. "It is a simple diktat of the United States without agreement from the United Nations or the world community. That is just impermissible." "Iraq is not spreading terrorism," said Yeltsin, Russia's first democratically elected president who helped bring about the fall of Soviet Communism. Yeltsin's successor, Vladimir Putin, supported Bush's war on terror after the September 11 attacks on the United States but has also made clear he opposes the use of force to overthrow the Iraqi president. "As a bare minimum the agreement of the United Nations Security Council is needed," Yeltsin said. "The issue can be solved through contact and negotiation." "I do not see any danger from Saddam," he told Reuters.... --------------------------------------------------------------- http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=2782509&startrow=11&date=2002-10-11&do_alert=0 RUSSIA CONCERNED ABOUT MISSILE STRIKES DELIVERED BY US AND UK AGAINST IRAQ MOSCOW, October 11, 2002. /from a RIA Novosti correspondent/. - Moscow anxiously reports the growing number of air strikes against Iraq, delivered in the so-called no-fly zones enforced by US and UK unilaterally, the Russian Federation's Foreign Ministry Information and Press Department informed RIA Novosti on Friday. Following the tragic event in the town of Nasyria, which caused deaths of five people, on October 9th-10th Anglo-American air forces continued bombarding civilian facilities around the towns of Mosul and Basra. "Russia is definitely sure that carrying on missile attacks on Iraqi territory thwarts the world community's efforts for keeping on the process of Iraqi settlement in the politico-diplomatic sphere and making favourable conditions for the resumption of UN inspectors' work in Iraq," the Russian Foreign Ministry pointed out. -------------------------------------------------------------- http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=2782899&startrow=1&date=2002-10-11&do_alert=0 RUSSIAN SENATOR OPPOSES DECISION TO USE FORCE AGAINST IRAQ MOSCOW, October 11th, 2002. /From a RIA Novosti correspondent/. Mikhail Margelov, Head of the Russian Federation Council Committee for Foreign Affairs thinks that "it is necessary to rule out any possibility of using force against Iraq." Mr. Margelov told RIA Novosti that "it is important to keep the unity among the UN Security Council." France and China share this viewpoint, Mikhail Margelov stressed. It is obvious that British Prime Minister Tony Blair gave Russian President Vladimir Putin no new evidence proving that Iraq possesses mass destruction weapons, the Russian Senator stressed. It is a well-known fact that the report submitted by the British authorities not long ago "left more questions unanswered." That is why, Mr. Margelov thinks, "Russia should stick to its policy to make Iraq transparent." "International inspectors should have the same objective. Only in this way we can really say how dangerous for international stability Iraqi armament and weapon production capacities are," the Russian Senator said. Mikhail Margelov emphasized that it was very important that Great Britain had stated that Russia had interests in the region. "We have to remind our partners of it quite often," Mr. Margelov added. According to the Russian Senator, every UN Security Council member-state understands that the long-run objective is to rule out remilitarization of Iraq. "It is important to combine our efforts to find the optimal way to reach it," Mikhail Margelov emphasized. Now everything favours ratification of a new resolution on Iraq that would give the UN inspections necessary status," Mr. Margelov said. "It is necessary to induce Iraq to cooperate with the UN inspection voluntary and without any conditions." --------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.gazeta.ru/2002/10/11/Russianoilty.shtml Gazeta.ru October 11, 2002 Russian oil tycoon warns of Iraqi war consequences Yevgeniy Kalyukov� Yukos chairman Mikhail Khodorkovsky is convinced that if the US is successful in forcing a regime change in Iraq, the price for Russian Urals-grade oil may slump to $12-14 per barrel, which is lower than the Finance Ministry's most pessimistic forecasts envisioned in next year's draft budget. Khodorkovsky the board chairman of Russia's second largest oil firm Yukos, who took part in the session of the State Duma's Fatherland All Russia faction on Thursday, believes a US attack on Iraq may inflict substantial damage to the oil industry of Russia, and, subsequently, to Russia's oil-dependent budget. ''If the campaign is quick and effective, the oil price may drop for a while,'' Khodorkovsky told the deputies. According to the optimistic forecasts, if the US succeeds in establishing control over Iraqi oilfields, the price for Russian Urals may drop to $14-16 per barrel. The more pessimistic scenario in the case of a swift US victory is a price for Russian Urals on the world market not exceeding $12-14 per barrel. According to Khodorkovsky, the oil price will return to its ''acceptable level'' of $27 per barrel ''in the medium-term perspective'', or three and a half years. Yukos' chief is convinced that the Russian government has to take into consideration such an unfavourable scenario when discussing Russia's position on the possible military campaign of the United States and their allies against Iraq. This is especially important given that the financial plan drawn up by the Finance Ministry is calculated on the basis of relatively high oil prices. The Ministry's forecast of the country's economic development up to 2005, too, is based on the same figures. The average price for Urals in the past months has amounted to $23.6. In the meantime, even the most pessimistic forecasts coming from the Finance Ministry envisage only the possibility of a return to a moderately low average oil price. In that case Russian Urals will cost $17-18.5 per barrel, which, according to the Finance Minsitry, will turn a surplus budget into a deficit one. As regards to the more favourable forecast, the Finance Ministry considers it optimal if oil prices remain between $21.5-22.5 per barrel until 2005. This is especially important because with high oil prices there is a chance for a higher price for Russia's natural gas, which is also important for the national budget, whereas a slump in oil prices leaves that sector with little hope. The Duma deputies, who are very familiar with the Finance Ministry's figures, listened to Khodorkovsky's forecasts with great attention � in view of the second reading of the draft budget, to be held in a week, they may come in very useful. ---------------------------------------------------------------http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=2782209&startrow=21&date=2002-10-11&do_alert=0 RUSSIAN EXPERT PREDICTS SHARP FLUCTUATIONS OF OIL PRICES SHOULD U.S. START MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ MOSCOW, OCTOBER 11, 2002. /From a RIA Novosti correspondent/. -- Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, predicts sharp fluctuations of oil prices should the USA start military action against Iraq. He expressed such an opinion Friday speaking at the press conference in RIA Novosti. Ivashov noted that Russia would only benefit if the U.S. aggression against Iraq does not take place. In any other case the development of the events will be rather dramatic and unfortunate for Russia, he said. The budget could be approved only with predictable prices for world hydrocarbon resources, the expert noted. The development of the situation in Iraq cannot be predicted, that's why "sharp, multiple fluctuations - ups and downs - of oil prices" are possible, Ivashov said. "The economy of such a state as Russia will not stand this, of course," the colonel-general emphasised. __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? 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