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http://www.paknews.com/main.php?id=3&date1=2003-03-11 Pakistan News Service March 11, 2003 UN Estimates Staggering Humanitarian Cost Of Iraq War Conservative Estimates Suggest 2 Million IDP, 900,000 Refugees Naveed Ahmad ISLAMABAD, Pakistan: Mar 11 (PNS) - Some two million people could be internally displaced, some of whom may well become refugees, says a confidential UN Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) report evaluating the humanitarian cost of a US-led conventional attack on Iraq. The report, prepared for internal purposes only by senior experts, predicts that some 900,000 refugees may seek shelter in bordering states, though it acknowledges that numbers of refugees cannot be predicted with any confidence. According various relief organisations estimates, the food component alone costs $500 million to $ 600 million a month to run. There remains a lack of clarity as to where the funds would come from to pay for an emergency food relief operation for several million people in the absence of oil revenues. The experts, however, are not optimistic about the accuracy of the finding as they believe the nature of the attack and the Iraqi response to the same would be key factors in changing the humanitarian cost of the likely war. Such reports are prepared by the United Nations experts for the agencies like UNHCR, WHO, UNICEF and WFP which have frontline role in dealing with a crisis situation. The experts also believe that the response of the neighbouring countries in the wake of such a crisis cannot be predicted owing the past experience in Pakistan and strict approaches adopted by Iran and Pakistan in disallowing the Afghan refugees from entering the two countries. Another leaked document produced by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) states that 'all UN agencies have been facing severe funding constraints that are preventing them from reaching even minimum levels of preparedness. The same report also states that 'the collapse of essential services in Iraq... could lead to a humanitarian emergency of proportions well beyond the capacity of UN agencies and other aid organisations. The report reveals that in spite of requests to the United States, the UK, and other western governments for emergency aid in case of war, minimal funds had been made available at the time of writing. In an other latest report prepared by Christian missionaries under the flag of Christian Aid estimates that it is possible that a large segment of the population will require treatment for traumatic injuries as a result of military action. The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that as many as 500,000 people may need medical treatment. Christian Aid, an official relief and development agency of 40 British and Irish churches, reminds states bordering on Iraq that they have obligations under international law to provide refuge and assistance to those fleeing a conflict in Iraq. Christian Aid is exploring the possibility of working with the Iraqi Refugee Aid Council (IRAC), providing humanitarian assistance to Iraqi refugees in Iran. Christian Aid also supports the Middle East Council of Churches (MECC). Elsewhere in the region, Christian Aid works with partner organisations in Israel, in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT), Lebanon and Egypt. Christian Aid, the report said is concerned that �many border areas lie in bleak, desert terrain where no infrastructure exists, making the need for adequate preparations for the reception of refugees all the more urgent�. The NGOs also see barrier minefields along the Iranian border and along the dividing line with the three northern governorates (laid mainly during the Iran-Iraq war, and by Turkish troops against Kurdish populations in south-east Turkey respectively) present an additional hazard to refugees and IDPs. An over-riding factor for those involved in humanitarian contingency planning is the particularly vulnerable state of the Iraqi population at present, even before a potential war. Responding to the question of whether humanitarian agencies are exaggerating the impact of war, a representative of the Iraqi Al Amal association is quoted in the Christian Aid report as saying, �If this war goes wrong, it will be absolutely disastrous for the Iraqi population. If it doesn't go wrong, it will still be bad enough. After 12 years of sanctions, the Iraqi population is extremely vulnerable. Even minimum damage from the war would produce immense needs and require huge support from the international community.� The relief organisations believe that even if the war itself is short, the humanitarian crisis is likely to last for a considerable length of time, given the war economy in which Iraqis are already living and the dependence on external assistance. Access to food for Iraq largely urban population is a particular cause for concern. Most of Iraq food is currently imported under the UN Oil for Food programme and 14-16 million Iraqis (two-thirds of the population) now depend on UN rations for their survival. UNICEF reports that some 18 million of Iraq population of 24 million are food insecure and would be particularly vulnerable if the present UN Oil for Food programme is suspended or supply lines are severed. The World Food Programme assessment of food insecurity levels shows that even in low to mid-case scenarios, between 4.9 and 9.6 million people would immediately become vulnerable in the event of conflict in Iraq. This figure would comprise different categories of affected civilians, including war-affected, internally displaced persons (IDPs), asylum seekers, and refugees fleeing into neighbouring countries. The Christian Aid reports states, �If electricity installations are attacked, access to water and sanitation would become a critical issue as water pumping and treatment stations rely on electricity to function and would cease to operate once back-up generators had run out of fuel.� In the wake these catastrophic effects, the relief community is lobbying and campaigning to ensure that the UK government and the international community at large fully explore and exhaust all peaceful strategies through the UN to solve the current crisis. In case of a war, the relief organisations have to prepare and follow the Code of Conduct for International NGOs in Disaster Relief. This Code advises humanitarian agencies to 'take all possible steps... to prevent or alleviate suffering arising out of conflict and calamity and act with sufficient independence to ensure that impartiality, assistance solely on the basis of need, is realised. The food situation could become more critical in northern Iraq if there is a need to provide for an influx of IDPs from elsewhere in Iraq, in addition to meeting the needs of the existing population in this region, the report said. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan local authority in northern Iraq is preparing for a possible influx of one million IDPs and is setting up ten camps with funds from the United Nations High Commission for Refugees. In accordance with international humanitarian law, civilians and installations essential to the survival of civilians must not be targeted. Given the past experience in Afghanistan, there is a greater likelihood of not only civilian casualties but denial of legal rights to Iraqi men in particular on the suspicion of being Saddam supporters. __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Web Hosting - establish your business online http://webhosting.yahoo.com --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.bdn7KI.YXJjaGl2 Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] TOPICA - Start your own email discussion group. FREE! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/create/index2.html ==^================================================================
