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Russian Information Agency Novosti
January 15, 2010


Possible space wars in the near future
Ilya Kramnik


Mowcow: The U.S. media suspects China and India of developing anti-satellite 
weapons. An article to this effect has been published the New Scientist 
magazine.

Until recently, only the Soviet Union, its legal successor Russia and the 
United States were capable of developing anti-satellite weapons. U.S. analysts 
now think that China and India are acquiring similar capabilities. To what 
extent are such fears justified?

It is hard to overestimate the role played by military satellite systems. Since 
the 1970s, an increasingly greater number of troop-control, telecommunications, 
target-acquisition, navigation and other processes depend on spacecraft which 
are therefore becoming more important.

At this point, it is impossible to imagine the armed forces of most industrial 
states, including Russia, without combat-ready satellite clusters comprising 
spacecraft of various types. The space echelon's role is directly proportional 
to the development level of any given nation and its armed forces.

However, satellite clusters are hardly invulnerable. Ever since the U.S.S.R. 
and the United States launched their first military satellites, efforts have 
been made to develop anti-satellite systems. Such efforts were intensified 
after the creation of initial missile defense systems comprising the highly 
important space echelon.

Orbital satellite interceptors, surface-to-space and air-to-space missiles were 
eventually developed.

Research aiming to develop orbital and ground-based anti-satellite laser guns 
making it possible to either destroy spacecraft or knock out their electronics 
and optical devices deserves special mention. However, few results have been 
achieved in this area.

China, which claims the right to be a global power, prioritizes the development 
of anti-satellite weapons.

A 2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test was conducted at 10.26 p.m. 
Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) on January 11, 2007 or at 6.26 a.m. Beijing time on 
January 12.

A Chinese weather satellite -- the FY-1C polar orbit satellite of the Fengyun 
series, flying at an altitude of 865 kilometers (537 mi) -- was destroyed by a 
kinetic kill vehicle traveling at a speed of 8 km/second in the opposite 
direction.

Although the exact name of the missile is not known, sources mentioned a 
KT-1/SC-19 system described as being based on a modified DF-21 medium-range 
ballistic missile or its commercial derivative, the KT-2, with a kinetic kill 
vehicle mounted. The 11-meter DF-21 missile weighs 15 metric tons.

The above referenced kinetic kill vehicle destroyed the satellite with a direct 
hit.

China thus became the second nation in history to conduct practical 
anti-satellite system tests.

On September 13, 1985, the United States destroyed U.S. satellite P78-1 using 
an ASM-135 ASAT anti-satellite missile launched from an F-15 Eagle air 
superiority fighter. A malfunctioning U.S. spy satellite USA-193 was destroyed 
by a RIM-161 Standard Missile 3 on February 21, 2008.

The Chinese anti-satellite weapons test highlighted Beijing's ability to fight 
a space war if necessary, and caused a nervous response primarily on the part 
of Japan and the United States.

It is common knowledge that China continues to develop anti-satellite weapons 
and to create new versions of missile interceptors.

Although there is hardly any convincing evidence regarding possible Indian 
efforts to develop similar weapons, the country's Defence Research and 
Development Organisation (DRDO) has voiced its intention to create a satellite 
interceptor.

If this statement is true, New Delhi plans to copy the Soviet example. As is 
known, Moscow had developed various types of orbital anti-satellite weapons, 
including the 80-ton Skif-DM battle station that was to have been launched by 
the super-heavy Energia space rocket.

It is unclear how fast India will be able to develop an anti-satellite weapon 
and to orbit it. This project will probably take many years to implement. At 
the same time, India could develop a missile interceptor based on medium-range 
ballistic missiles to knock down satellites the way China did.

More countries will acquire anti-satellite capabilities in the future. 
Technically speaking, all countries wielding their own ballistic missiles, 
including Iran and North Korea, have the potential. It is still hard to predict 
the influence of such programs on the subsequent development of military space 
systems.
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