Hi Dave, your answer came in as I was pushing the send button ;-) We basically wrote the same thing!
> Unfortunately, none of the available models can predict whether or not > inoculum is present in any given orchard, We’ve just completed a 4 yr trial of monitoring bacteria during bloom using qPCR and conclusions are simple: 1) Unless the sensitivity of the assay is greatly improved, the blossom sampling effort is too important to reliably predict fire blight based on bacteria population. 2) The best we could achieve with routine sampling is potentially avoid massive large scale regional epidemic. I don’t see how to solve this at this point. Vincent Vincent Philion, agr., M.Sc. Microbiologiste/Phytopathologiste (pomiculture) Institut de recherche et de développement en agro-environnement Research and Development Institute for the Agri-Environment www.irda.qc.ca Centre de recherche 335, Rang des Vingt-Cinq Est Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville (Québec) J3V 0G7 vincent.phil...@irda.qc.ca _______________________________________________ apple-crop mailing list firstname.lastname@example.org http://virtualorchard.net/mailman/listinfo/apple-crop