Hi Dave, your answer came in as I was pushing the send button ;-)

We basically wrote the same thing!

>   Unfortunately, none of the available models can predict whether or not 
> inoculum is present in any given orchard,

We’ve just completed a 4 yr trial of monitoring bacteria during bloom using 
qPCR and conclusions are simple:

1) Unless the sensitivity of the assay is greatly improved, the blossom 
sampling effort is too important to reliably predict fire blight based on 
bacteria population.

2) The best we could achieve with routine sampling is potentially avoid massive 
large scale regional epidemic.

I don’t see how to solve this at this point. 


Vincent Philion, agr., M.Sc.
Microbiologiste/Phytopathologiste (pomiculture)

Institut de recherche et de développement en agro-environnement
Research and Development Institute for the Agri-Environment


Centre de recherche
335, Rang des Vingt-Cinq Est
Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville (Québec)  J3V 0G7


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