Greetings, all,

We'll be publishing an active measurement study on ECN negotiability and 
connectivity risk at PAM 2015, just before the IETF; the author copy of the 
paper is at 

http://ecn.ethz.ch/ecn-pam15.pdf. 

The key findings are:

(1) More than half of the Alexa top million web servers (600k accounting for 
duplicate IPs) will happily negotiate and mark ECT0 if you ask nicely (at least 
as of September 2014). This mainly reflects people upgrading Linux servers to 
kernels where tcp_ecn=2 is the default, and strongly validates changing default 
configurations as a method for increasing ECN deployment.

(2) 0.42% of these webservers will fail to connect if you try to negotiate ECN, 
but simple ECN fallback as in RFC 3168 (retransmitted SYN ECE CWR sent as SYN) 
commutes this to a risk of slightly increased handshake latency.

(3) A vanishingly small number (15 / ~600k) of these have *different* ECN 
connectivity dependency depending on where you connect from, indicating that 
the box breaking ECN is not directly adjacent to the server. A third of these 
(6) are GoDaddy parking sites.

(4) There is more mangling of the ECN IP header bits than connectivity 
dependency, and successful negotiation does not always mean successful marking. 
About 2% of IPv4 servers and 15% (!!!) of IPv6 servers signal in other than 
expected ways, indicating that negotiated ECN might not be useful.

(5) We appear to have seen two (count 'em, two!) CE markings in the wild, both 
from the same webserver (www.grandlyon.com) when probing 600k IP addresses 3 
times from 3 different locations (i.e., 2 out of 5.6 million flows). This is 
neither encouraging nor surprising.

Bottom line, the risk to connectivity of turning ECN on by default in clients 
is vanishingly low, though not yet in the one in ten million range, when simple 
fallback as in RFC3168 is implemented. Modern Windows and Mac OS X do this; 
Linux doesn't yet, though we have a three line patch (which, anecdotally, I've 
been running without incident on my desktop for the past half year). 

Given the signaling anomalies, especially on IPv6, defining simple methods to 
detect and dynamically ignore anomalous signaling at the endpoints is probably 
the next area of work to getting ECN deployable. There *is* some path 
dependency of ECN brokenness, but not enough to make it worth it to continue 
working on the approach in the expired draft-kuehlewind-tcpm-ecn-fallback until 
we have a solution for the general ECN IP signaling anomalies.

I was hoping to get continuous measurements based on a new version of the 
measurement and analysis scripts up and running before the IETF, but this has 
fallen to task queue triage. We also have a student working on doing this for 
things other than the web; all of this is in my queue for mid-May at this 
point, so watch this space.

Cheers,

Brian and Mirja
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